Daily Papers

We study a missing-value imputation method, termed kNNSampler, that imputes a given unit's missing response by randomly sampling from the observed responses of the k most similar units to the given unit in terms of the observed covariates. This method can sample unknown missing values from their distributions, quantify the uncertainties of missing values, and be readily used for multiple imputation. Unlike popular kNNImputer, which estimates the conditional mean of a missing response given an observed covariate, kNNSampler is theoretically shown to estimate the conditional distribution of a missing response given an observed covariate. Experiments demonstrate its effectiveness in recovering the distribution of missing values. The code for kNNSampler is made publicly available (https://github.com/SAP/knn-sampler).

The widespread application of Large Language Models (LLMs) across various tasks and fields has necessitated the alignment of these models with human values and preferences. Given various approaches of human value alignment, ranging from Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback (RLHF), to constitutional learning, etc. there is an urgent need to understand the scope and nature of human values injected into these models before their release. There is also a need for model alignment without a costly large scale human annotation effort. We propose UniVaR, a high-dimensional representation of human value distributions in LLMs, orthogonal to model architecture and training data. Trained from the value-relevant output of eight multilingual LLMs and tested on the output from four multilingual LLMs, namely LlaMA2, ChatGPT, JAIS and Yi, we show that UniVaR is a powerful tool to compare the distribution of human values embedded in different LLMs with different langauge sources. Through UniVaR, we explore how different LLMs prioritize various values in different languages and cultures, shedding light on the complex interplay between human values and language modeling.

Current Large Language Models (LLMs) typically rely on coarse-grained national labels for pluralistic value alignment. However, such macro-level supervision often obscures intra-country value heterogeneity, yielding a loose alignment. We argue that resolving this limitation requires shifting from national labels to multi-dimensional demographic constraints, which can identify groups with predictable, high-consensus value preference. To this end, we propose DVMap (High-Consensus Demographic-Value Mapping), a framework for fine-grained pluralistic value alignment. In this framework, we first present a demographic archetype extraction strategy to construct a high-quality value alignment corpus of 56,152 samples from the World Values Survey (WVS) by strictly retaining respondents with consistent value preferences under identical demographics. Over this corpus, we introduce a Structured Chain-of-Thought (CoT) mechanism that explicitly guides LLMs to reason about demographic-value correlations. Subsequently, we employ Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) to achieve adaptive anchoring of value distributions. To rigorously evaluate generalization, we further establish a triple-generalization benchmark (spanning cross-demographic, cross-country, and cross-value) comprising 21,553 samples. Experimental results demonstrate that DVMap effectively learns the manifold mapping from demographics to values, exhibiting strong generalization and robustness. On cross-demographic tests, Qwen3-8B-DVMap achieves 48.6% accuracy, surpassing the advanced open-source LLM DeepSeek-v3.2 (45.1%). The source code and dataset are available at https://github.com/EnlightenedAI/DVMap.

Diffusion models have shown promising ability in generating high-quality time series (TS) data. Despite the initial success, existing works mostly focus on the authenticity of data at the individual level, but pay less attention to preserving the population-level properties on the entire dataset. Such population-level properties include value distributions for each dimension and distributions of certain functional dependencies (e.g., cross-correlation, CC) between different dimensions. For instance, when generating house energy consumption TS data, the value distributions of the outside temperature and the kitchen temperature should be preserved, as well as the distribution of CC between them. Preserving such TS population-level properties is critical in maintaining the statistical insights of the datasets, mitigating model bias, and augmenting downstream tasks like TS prediction. Yet, it is often overlooked by existing models. Hence, data generated by existing models often bear distribution shifts from the original data. We propose Population-aware Diffusion for Time Series (PaD-TS), a new TS generation model that better preserves the population-level properties. The key novelties of PaD-TS include 1) a new training method explicitly incorporating TS population-level property preservation, and 2) a new dual-channel encoder model architecture that better captures the TS data structure. Empirical results in major benchmark datasets show that PaD-TS can improve the average CC distribution shift score between real and synthetic data by 5.9x while maintaining a performance comparable to state-of-the-art models on individual-level authenticity.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) serve a global audience, alignment must transition from enforcing universal consensus to respecting cultural pluralism. We demonstrate that dense models, when forced to fit conflicting value distributions, suffer from Mean Collapse, converging to a generic average that fails to represent diverse groups. We attribute this to Cultural Sparsity, where gradient interference prevents dense parameters from spanning distinct cultural modes. To resolve this, we propose \textsc{CuMA} (Cultural Mixture of Adapters), a framework that frames alignment as a conditional capacity separation problem. By incorporating demographic-aware routing, CuMA internalizes a Latent Cultural Topology to explicitly disentangle conflicting gradients into specialized expert subspaces. Extensive evaluations on WorldValuesBench, Community Alignment, and PRISM demonstrate that CuMA achieves state-of-the-art performance, significantly outperforming both dense baselines and semantic-only MoEs. Crucially, our analysis confirms that CuMA effectively mitigates mean collapse, preserving cultural diversity. Our code is available at https://github.com/Throll/CuMA.

In this paper we argue for the fundamental importance of the value distribution: the distribution of the random return received by a reinforcement learning agent. This is in contrast to the common approach to reinforcement learning which models the expectation of this return, or value. Although there is an established body of literature studying the value distribution, thus far it has always been used for a specific purpose such as implementing risk-aware behaviour. We begin with theoretical results in both the policy evaluation and control settings, exposing a significant distributional instability in the latter. We then use the distributional perspective to design a new algorithm which applies Bellman's equation to the learning of approximate value distributions. We evaluate our algorithm using the suite of games from the Arcade Learning Environment. We obtain both state-of-the-art results and anecdotal evidence demonstrating the importance of the value distribution in approximate reinforcement learning. Finally, we combine theoretical and empirical evidence to highlight the ways in which the value distribution impacts learning in the approximate setting.

This paper introduces an information-aware quantization framework that adaptively compresses the key-value (KV) cache in large language models (LLMs). Although prior work has underscored the distinct roles of key and value cache during inference, our systematic analysis -- examining singular value distributions, spectral norms, and Frobenius norms -- reveals, for the first time, that key matrices consistently exhibit higher norm values and are more sensitive to quantization than value matrices. Furthermore, our theoretical analysis shows that matrices with higher spectral norms amplify quantization errors more significantly. Motivated by these insights, we propose a mixed-precision quantization strategy, KV-AdaQuant, which allocates more bit-width for keys and fewer for values since key matrices have higher norm values. With the same total KV bit budget, this approach effectively mitigates error propagation across transformer layers while achieving significant memory savings. Our extensive experiments on multiple LLMs (1B--70B) demonstrate that our mixed-precision quantization scheme maintains high model accuracy even under aggressive compression. For instance, using 4-bit for Key and 2-bit for Value achieves an accuracy of 75.2%, whereas reversing the assignment (2-bit for Key and 4-bit for Value) yields only 54.7% accuracy. The code is available at https://tinyurl.com/kv-adaquant

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used for tasks involving Knowledge Graphs (KGs), whose evaluation typically focuses on accuracy and output correctness. We propose a complementary task characterization approach using three complexity frameworks from cognitive psychology. Applying this to the LLM-KG-Bench framework, we highlight value distributions, identify underrepresented demands and motivate richer interpretation and diversity for benchmark evaluation tasks.

The emergence of multi-agent systems built from large language models (LLMs) offers a promising paradigm for scalable collective intelligence and self-evolution. Ideally, such systems would achieve continuous self-improvement in a fully closed loop while maintaining robust safety alignment--a combination we term the self-evolution trilemma. However, we demonstrate both theoretically and empirically that an agent society satisfying continuous self-evolution, complete isolation, and safety invariance is impossible. Drawing on an information-theoretic framework, we formalize safety as the divergence degree from anthropic value distributions. We theoretically demonstrate that isolated self-evolution induces statistical blind spots, leading to the irreversible degradation of the system's safety alignment. Empirical and qualitative results from an open-ended agent community (Moltbook) and two closed self-evolving systems reveal phenomena that align with our theoretical prediction of inevitable safety erosion. We further propose several solution directions to alleviate the identified safety concern. Our work establishes a fundamental limit on the self-evolving AI societies and shifts the discourse from symptom-driven safety patches to a principled understanding of intrinsic dynamical risks, highlighting the need for external oversight or novel safety-preserving mechanisms.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly trained on tabular data, which, unlike unstructured text, often contains personally identifiable information (PII) in a highly structured and explicit format. As a result, privacy risks arise, since sensitive records can be inadvertently retained by the model and exposed through data extraction or membership inference attacks (MIAs). While existing MIA methods primarily target textual content, their efficacy and threat implications may differ when applied to structured data, due to its limited content, diverse data types, unique value distributions, and column-level semantics. In this paper, we present Tab-MIA, a benchmark dataset for evaluating MIAs on tabular data in LLMs and demonstrate how it can be used. Tab-MIA comprises five data collections, each represented in six different encoding formats. Using our Tab-MIA benchmark, we conduct the first evaluation of state-of-the-art MIA methods on LLMs finetuned with tabular data across multiple encoding formats. In the evaluation, we analyze the memorization behavior of pretrained LLMs on structured data derived from Wikipedia tables. Our findings show that LLMs memorize tabular data in ways that vary across encoding formats, making them susceptible to extraction via MIAs. Even when fine-tuned for as few as three epochs, models exhibit high vulnerability, with AUROC scores approaching 90% in most cases. Tab-MIA enables systematic evaluation of these risks and provides a foundation for developing privacy-preserving methods for tabular data in LLMs.

Efficient audio representations in a compressed continuous latent space are critical for generative audio modeling and Music Information Retrieval (MIR) tasks. However, some existing audio autoencoders have limitations, such as multi-stage training procedures, slow iterative sampling, or low reconstruction quality. We introduce Music2Latent, an audio autoencoder that overcomes these limitations by leveraging consistency models. Music2Latent encodes samples into a compressed continuous latent space in a single end-to-end training process while enabling high-fidelity single-step reconstruction. Key innovations include conditioning the consistency model on upsampled encoder outputs at all levels through cross connections, using frequency-wise self-attention to capture long-range frequency dependencies, and employing frequency-wise learned scaling to handle varying value distributions across frequencies at different noise levels. We demonstrate that Music2Latent outperforms existing continuous audio autoencoders in sound quality and reconstruction accuracy while achieving competitive performance on downstream MIR tasks using its latent representations. To our knowledge, this represents the first successful attempt at training an end-to-end consistency autoencoder model.

We introduce distributional dynamic programming (DP) methods for optimizing statistical functionals of the return distribution, with standard reinforcement learning as a special case. Previous distributional DP methods could optimize the same class of expected utilities as classic DP. To go beyond expected utilities, we combine distributional DP with stock augmentation, a technique previously introduced for classic DP in the context of risk-sensitive RL, where the MDP state is augmented with a statistic of the rewards obtained so far (since the first time step). We find that a number of recently studied problems can be formulated as stock-augmented return distribution optimization, and we show that we can use distributional DP to solve them. We analyze distributional value and policy iteration, with bounds and a study of what objectives these distributional DP methods can or cannot optimize. We describe a number of applications outlining how to use distributional DP to solve different stock-augmented return distribution optimization problems, for example maximizing conditional value-at-risk, and homeostatic regulation. To highlight the practical potential of stock-augmented return distribution optimization and distributional DP, we combine the core ideas of distributional value iteration with the deep RL agent DQN, and empirically evaluate it for solving instances of the applications discussed.

The PRObabilistic Value-Added Bright Galaxy Survey (PROVABGS) catalog will provide measurements of galaxy properties, such as stellar mass (M_*), star formation rate ({rm SFR}), stellar metallicity (Z_{rm MW}), and stellar age (t_{rm age, MW}), for >10 million galaxies of the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey. Full posterior distributions of the galaxy properties will be inferred using state-of-the-art Bayesian spectral energy distribution (SED) modeling of DESI spectroscopy and Legacy Surveys photometry. In this work, we present the SED model, Bayesian inference framework, and methodology of PROVABGS. Furthermore, we apply the PROVABGS SED modeling on realistic synthetic DESI spectra and photometry, constructed using the L-GALAXIES semi-analytic model. We compare the inferred galaxy properties to the true galaxy properties of the simulation using a hierarchical Bayesian framework to quantify accuracy and precision. Overall, we accurately infer the true M_*, {rm SFR}, Z_{rm MW}, and t_{rm age, MW} of the simulated galaxies. However, the priors on galaxy properties induced by the SED model have a significant impact on the posteriors. They impose a {rm SFR}{>}10^{-1} M_odot/{rm yr} lower bound on {rm SFR}, a {sim}0.3 dex bias on log Z_{rm MW} for galaxies with low spectral signal-to-noise, and t_{rm age, MW} < 8,{rm Gyr} upper bound on stellar age. This work also demonstrates that a joint analysis of spectra and photometry significantly improves the constraints on galaxy properties over photometry alone and is necessary to mitigate the impact of the priors. With the methodology presented and validated in this work, PROVABGS will maximize information extracted from DESI observations and provide a probabilistic value-added galaxy catalog that will extend current galaxy studies to new regimes and unlock cutting-edge probabilistic analyses.

Selecting appropriate datasets is critical in modern computer vision. However, no general-purpose tools exist to evaluate the extent to which two datasets differ. For this, we propose representing images - and by extension datasets - using Distributions of Neuron Activations (DNAs). DNAs fit distributions, such as histograms or Gaussians, to activations of neurons in a pre-trained feature extractor through which we pass the image(s) to represent. This extractor is frozen for all datasets, and we rely on its generally expressive power in feature space. By comparing two DNAs, we can evaluate the extent to which two datasets differ with granular control over the comparison attributes of interest, providing the ability to customise the way distances are measured to suit the requirements of the task at hand. Furthermore, DNAs are compact, representing datasets of any size with less than 15 megabytes. We demonstrate the value of DNAs by evaluating their applicability on several tasks, including conditional dataset comparison, synthetic image evaluation, and transfer learning, and across diverse datasets, ranging from synthetic cat images to celebrity faces and urban driving scenes.

When trying to solve a computational problem, we are often faced with a choice between algorithms that are guaranteed to return the right answer but differ in their runtime distributions (e.g., SAT solvers, sorting algorithms). This paper aims to lay theoretical foundations for such choices by formalizing preferences over runtime distributions. It might seem that we should simply prefer the algorithm that minimizes expected runtime. However, such preferences would be driven by exactly how slow our algorithm is on bad inputs, whereas in practice we are typically willing to cut off occasional, sufficiently long runs before they finish. We propose a principled alternative, taking a utility-theoretic approach to characterize the scoring functions that describe preferences over algorithms. These functions depend on the way our value for solving our problem decreases with time and on the distribution from which captimes are drawn. We describe examples of realistic utility functions and show how to leverage a maximum-entropy approach for modeling underspecified captime distributions. Finally, we show how to efficiently estimate an algorithm's expected utility from runtime samples.

Real-world data often exhibits long-tailed distributions with heavy class imbalance, posing great challenges for deep recognition models. We identify a persisting dilemma on the value of labels in the context of imbalanced learning: on the one hand, supervision from labels typically leads to better results than its unsupervised counterparts; on the other hand, heavily imbalanced data naturally incurs "label bias" in the classifier, where the decision boundary can be drastically altered by the majority classes. In this work, we systematically investigate these two facets of labels. We demonstrate, theoretically and empirically, that class-imbalanced learning can significantly benefit in both semi-supervised and self-supervised manners. Specifically, we confirm that (1) positively, imbalanced labels are valuable: given more unlabeled data, the original labels can be leveraged with the extra data to reduce label bias in a semi-supervised manner, which greatly improves the final classifier; (2) negatively however, we argue that imbalanced labels are not useful always: classifiers that are first pre-trained in a self-supervised manner consistently outperform their corresponding baselines. Extensive experiments on large-scale imbalanced datasets verify our theoretically grounded strategies, showing superior performance over previous state-of-the-arts. Our intriguing findings highlight the need to rethink the usage of imbalanced labels in realistic long-tailed tasks. Code is available at https://github.com/YyzHarry/imbalanced-semi-self.

This study evaluates deep neural networks for forecasting probability distributions of financial returns. 1D convolutional neural networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architectures are used to forecast parameters of three probability distributions: Normal, Student's t, and skewed Student's t. Using custom negative log-likelihood loss functions, distribution parameters are optimized directly. The models are tested on six major equity indices (S\&P 500, BOVESPA, DAX, WIG, Nikkei 225, and KOSPI) using probabilistic evaluation metrics including Log Predictive Score (LPS), Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), and Probability Integral Transform (PIT). Results show that deep learning models provide accurate distributional forecasts and perform competitively with classical GARCH models for Value-at-Risk estimation. The LSTM with skewed Student's t distribution performs best across multiple evaluation criteria, capturing both heavy tails and asymmetry in financial returns. This work shows that deep neural networks are viable alternatives to traditional econometric models for financial risk assessment and portfolio management.

Feed-forward layers constitute two-thirds of a transformer model's parameters, yet their role in the network remains under-explored. We show that feed-forward layers in transformer-based language models operate as key-value memories, where each key correlates with textual patterns in the training examples, and each value induces a distribution over the output vocabulary. Our experiments show that the learned patterns are human-interpretable, and that lower layers tend to capture shallow patterns, while upper layers learn more semantic ones. The values complement the keys' input patterns by inducing output distributions that concentrate probability mass on tokens likely to appear immediately after each pattern, particularly in the upper layers. Finally, we demonstrate that the output of a feed-forward layer is a composition of its memories, which is subsequently refined throughout the model's layers via residual connections to produce the final output distribution.

Large pre-trained models decay over long-term deployment as input distributions shift, user requirements change, or crucial knowledge gaps are discovered. Recently, model editors have been proposed to modify a model's behavior by adjusting its weights during deployment. However, when editing the same model multiple times, these approaches quickly decay a model's performance on upstream data and forget how to fix previous errors. We propose and study a novel Lifelong Model Editing setting, where streaming errors are identified for a deployed model and we update the model to correct its predictions without influencing unrelated inputs without access to training edits, exogenous datasets, or any upstream data for the edited model. To approach this problem, we introduce General Retrieval Adaptors for Continual Editing, or GRACE, which learns to cache a chosen layer's activations in an adaptive codebook as edits stream in, leaving original model weights frozen. GRACE can thus edit models thousands of times in a row using only streaming errors, without influencing unrelated inputs. Experimentally, we show that GRACE improves over recent alternatives and generalizes to unseen inputs. Our code is available at https://www.github.com/thartvigsen/grace.

We apply the Weibull distribution -- a two-parameter family from extreme-value theory -- as a diagnostic framework for element-wise weight magnitude distributions in transformers. At initialization, i.i.d. Gaussian weights give |w| ~ HalfNormal, yielding k ~ 1.20 via middle-80% probability-plot fit (the protocol used throughout this work). This anchor makes k a principled, architecture-independent measuring stick for training dynamics; fitting each weight matrix independently at every layer at every checkpoint enables per-component, per-layer, and per-step diagnostics that aggregate statistics cannot resolve. Applying this framework to 12 model entries spanning 7 architectural families (Pythia, OLMo-1/2, LLaMA-3, Mistral, Qwen2.5/3) reveals three findings. First, FFN modules and the attention output projection W_o -- the Transmission Class -- fall in a narrow k band: median terminal k in [1.186, 1.204] across 12 entries (cross-family CV = 0.51%), shared across SwiGLU/GeLU activations, Pre-LN/QK-Norm placements, and 70M-14B sizes. Second, the attention input projections W_q, W_k -- the Selection Class -- depart from the Weibull family, with severity shaped by storage: separately-stored Q/K (OLMo-1, OLMo-2) yields k in [0.76, 0.99] (deep); GQA models yield k in [1.10, 1.16] (mild); Pythia's merged W_qkv occupies a transitional zone tracking training budget T/tau monotonically. Third, lambda grows substantially during training and scales with sqrt(eta/lambda_wd) within the Pythia family (Pearson r = 0.94, three Transmission kinds), directionally consistent with Fan et al. (2025). The two parameters carry independent information: k labels the functional class, lambda labels training progress. We release npm-weibull-py v0.4 (Python library) and DATABASE_v9_1 at https://github.com/tiexinding/NPM-Weibull-public .

We consider a combinatorial multi-armed bandit problem for maximum value reward function under maximum value and index feedback. This is a new feedback structure that lies in between commonly studied semi-bandit and full-bandit feedback structures. We propose an algorithm and provide a regret bound for problem instances with stochastic arm outcomes according to arbitrary distributions with finite supports. The regret analysis rests on considering an extended set of arms, associated with values and probabilities of arm outcomes, and applying a smoothness condition. Our algorithm achieves a O((k/Delta)log(T)) distribution-dependent and a O(T) distribution-independent regret where k is the number of arms selected in each round, Delta is a distribution-dependent reward gap and T is the horizon time. Perhaps surprisingly, the regret bound is comparable to previously-known bound under more informative semi-bandit feedback. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm through experimental results.

We study the problem of imputing missing values in a dataset, which has important applications in many domains. The key to missing value imputation is to capture the data distribution with incomplete samples and impute the missing values accordingly. In this paper, by leveraging the fact that any two batches of data with missing values come from the same data distribution, we propose to impute the missing values of two batches of samples by transforming them into a latent space through deep invertible functions and matching them distributionally. To learn the transformations and impute the missing values simultaneously, a simple and well-motivated algorithm is proposed. Our algorithm has fewer hyperparameters to fine-tune and generates high-quality imputations regardless of how missing values are generated. Extensive experiments over a large number of datasets and competing benchmark algorithms show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Customer Lifetime Value (CLTV) prediction is a critical task in business applications. Accurately predicting CLTV is challenging in real-world business scenarios, as the distribution of CLTV is complex and mutable. Firstly, there is a large number of users without any consumption consisting of a long-tailed part that is too complex to fit. Secondly, the small set of high-value users spent orders of magnitude more than a typical user leading to a wide range of the CLTV distribution which is hard to capture in a single distribution. Existing approaches for CLTV estimation either assume a prior probability distribution and fit a single group of distribution-related parameters for all samples, or directly learn from the posterior distribution with manually predefined buckets in a heuristic manner. However, all these methods fail to handle complex and mutable distributions. In this paper, we propose a novel optimal distribution selection model OptDist for CLTV prediction, which utilizes an adaptive optimal sub-distribution selection mechanism to improve the accuracy of complex distribution modeling. Specifically, OptDist trains several candidate sub-distribution networks in the distribution learning module (DLM) for modeling the probability distribution of CLTV. Then, a distribution selection module (DSM) is proposed to select the sub-distribution for each sample, thus making the selection automatically and adaptively. Besides, we design an alignment mechanism that connects both modules, which effectively guides the optimization. We conduct extensive experiments on both two public and one private dataset to verify that OptDist outperforms state-of-the-art baselines. Furthermore, OptDist has been deployed on a large-scale financial platform for customer acquisition marketing campaigns and the online experiments also demonstrate the effectiveness of OptDist.

Utility functions or their equivalents (value functions, objective functions, loss functions, reward functions, preference orderings) are a central tool in most current machine learning systems. These mechanisms for defining goals and guiding optimization run into practical and conceptual difficulty when there are independent, multi-dimensional objectives that need to be pursued simultaneously and cannot be reduced to each other. Ethicists have proved several impossibility theorems that stem from this origin; those results appear to show that there is no way of formally specifying what it means for an outcome to be good for a population without violating strong human ethical intuitions (in such cases, the objective function is a social welfare function). We argue that this is a practical problem for any machine learning system (such as medical decision support systems or autonomous weapons) or rigidly rule-based bureaucracy that will make high stakes decisions about human lives: such systems should not use objective functions in the strict mathematical sense. We explore the alternative of using uncertain objectives, represented for instance as partially ordered preferences, or as probability distributions over total orders. We show that previously known impossibility theorems can be transformed into uncertainty theorems in both of those settings, and prove lower bounds on how much uncertainty is implied by the impossibility results. We close by proposing two conjectures about the relationship between uncertainty in objectives and severe unintended consequences from AI systems.

Machine learning models frequently experience performance drops under distribution shifts. The underlying cause of such shifts may be multiple simultaneous factors such as changes in data quality, differences in specific covariate distributions, or changes in the relationship between label and features. When a model does fail during deployment, attributing performance change to these factors is critical for the model developer to identify the root cause and take mitigating actions. In this work, we introduce the problem of attributing performance differences between environments to distribution shifts in the underlying data generating mechanisms. We formulate the problem as a cooperative game where the players are distributions. We define the value of a set of distributions to be the change in model performance when only this set of distributions has changed between environments, and derive an importance weighting method for computing the value of an arbitrary set of distributions. The contribution of each distribution to the total performance change is then quantified as its Shapley value. We demonstrate the correctness and utility of our method on synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world case studies, showing its effectiveness in attributing performance changes to a wide range of distribution shifts.

With the emergence of data marketplaces, the demand for methods to assess the value of data has increased significantly. While numerous techniques have been proposed for this purpose, none have specifically addressed graphs as the main data modality. Graphs are widely used across various fields, ranging from chemical molecules to social networks. In this study, we break down graphs into two main components: structural and featural, and we focus on evaluating data without relying on specific task-related metrics, making it applicable in practical scenarios where validation requirements may be lacking. We introduce a novel framework called blind message passing, which aligns the seller's and buyer's graphs using a shared node permutation based on graph matching. This allows us to utilize the graph Wasserstein distance to quantify the differences in the structural distribution of graph datasets, called the structural disparities. We then consider featural aspects of buyers' and sellers' graphs for data valuation and capture their statistical similarities and differences, referred to as relevance and diversity, respectively. Our approach ensures that buyers and sellers remain unaware of each other's datasets. Our experiments on real datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in capturing the relevance, diversity, and structural disparities of seller data for buyers, particularly in graph-based data valuation scenarios.

We introduce MotionCrafter, a video diffusion-based framework that jointly reconstructs 4D geometry and estimates dense motion from a monocular video. The core of our method is a novel joint representation of dense 3D point maps and 3D scene flows in a shared coordinate system, and a novel 4D VAE to effectively learn this representation. Unlike prior work that forces the 3D value and latents to align strictly with RGB VAE latents-despite their fundamentally different distributions-we show that such alignment is unnecessary and leads to suboptimal performance. Instead, we introduce a new data normalization and VAE training strategy that better transfers diffusion priors and greatly improves reconstruction quality. Extensive experiments across multiple datasets demonstrate that MotionCrafter achieves state-of-the-art performance in both geometry reconstruction and dense scene flow estimation, delivering 38.64% and 25.0% improvements in geometry and motion reconstruction, respectively, all without any post-optimization. Project page: https://ruijiezhu94.github.io/MotionCrafter_Page

Weighting methods in causal inference have been widely used to achieve a desirable level of covariate balancing. However, the existing weighting methods have desirable theoretical properties only when a certain model, either the propensity score or outcome regression model, is correctly specified. In addition, the corresponding estimators do not behave well for finite samples due to large variance even when the model is correctly specified. In this paper, we consider to use the integral probability metric (IPM), which is a metric between two probability measures, for covariate balancing. Optimal weights are determined so that weighted empirical distributions for the treated and control groups have the smallest IPM value for a given set of discriminators. We prove that the corresponding estimator can be consistent without correctly specifying any model (neither the propensity score nor the outcome regression model). In addition, we empirically show that our proposed method outperforms existing weighting methods with large margins for finite samples.

Deep learning increasingly relies on massive data with substantial storage, annotation, and training costs. To reduce costs, coreset selection finds a representative subset of data to train models while ideally performing on par with the full data training. To maximize performance, current state-of-the-art coreset methods select data using dataset-specific ground truth labels and training. However, these methodological requirements prevent selection at scale on real-world, unlabeled data. To that end, this paper addresses the selection of coresets that achieve state-of-the-art performance but without using any labels or training on candidate data. Instead, our solution, Zero-Shot Coreset Selection via Iterative Subspace Sampling (ZCore), uses previously-trained foundation models to generate zero-shot, high-dimensional embedding spaces to interpret unlabeled data. ZCore then iteratively quantifies the relative value of all candidate data based on coverage and redundancy in numerous subspace distributions. Finally, ZCore selects a coreset sized for any data budget to train downstream models. We evaluate ZCore on four datasets and outperform several state-of-the-art label-based methods, especially at low data rates that provide the most substantial cost reduction. On ImageNet, ZCore selections for 10% training data achieve a downstream validation accuracy of 53.99%, which outperforms prior label-based methods and removes annotation and training costs for 1.15 million images. Our paper's code is publicly available at https://github.com/voxel51/zcore.

Inference-time optimization scales computation to derive deliberate reasoning steps for effective performance. While previous search-based strategies address the short-sightedness of auto-regressive generation, the vast search space leads to excessive exploration and insufficient exploitation. To strike an efficient balance to derive the optimal step, we frame the decoding strategy as foresight sampling, leveraging simulated future steps to obtain globally optimal step estimation. Built on it, we propose a novel decoding strategy, named phi-Decoding. To provide a precise and expressive estimation of step value, phi-Decoding approximates two distributions via foresight and clustering. Sampling from the joint distribution, the optimal steps can be selected for exploitation. To support adaptive computation allocation, we propose in-width and in-depth pruning strategies, featuring a light-weight solution to achieve inference efficiency. Extensive experiments across seven benchmarks show phi-Decoding outperforms strong baselines in both performance and efficiency. Additional analysis demonstrates its generalization across various LLMs and scalability across a wide range of computing budgets. The code will be released at https://github.com/xufangzhi/phi-Decoding, and the open-source PyPI package is coming soon.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are becoming increasingly capable across global languages. However, the ability to communicate across languages does not necessarily translate to appropriate cultural representations. A key concern is US-centric bias, where LLMs reflect US rather than local cultural values. We propose a novel methodology that compares LLM-generated response distributions against population-level opinion data from the World Value Survey across four languages (Danish, Dutch, English, and Portuguese). Using a rigorous linear mixed-effects regression framework, we compare two families of models: Google's Gemma models (2B--27B parameters) and successive iterations of OpenAI's turbo-series. Across the families of models, we find no consistent relationships between language capabilities and cultural alignment. While the Gemma models have a positive correlation between language capability and cultural alignment across languages, the OpenAI models do not. Importantly, we find that self-consistency is a stronger predictor of multicultural alignment than multilingual capabilities. Our results demonstrate that achieving meaningful cultural alignment requires dedicated effort beyond improving general language capabilities.

Using the supersymmetric method of random matrix theory within the Heidelberg approach framework we provide statistical description of stationary intensity sampled in locations inside an open wave-chaotic cavity, assuming that the time-reversal invariance inside the cavity is fully broken. In particular, we show that when incoming waves are fed via a finite number M of open channels the probability density {cal P}(I) for the single-point intensity I decays as a power law for large intensities: {cal P}(I)sim I^{-(M+2)}, provided there is no internal losses. This behaviour is in marked difference with the Rayleigh law {cal P}(I)sim exp(-I/I) which turns out to be valid only in the limit Mto infty. We also find the joint probability density of intensities I_1, ldots, I_L in L>1 observation points, and then extract the corresponding statistics for the maximal intensity in the observation pattern. For Lto infty the resulting limiting extreme value statistics (EVS) turns out to be different from the classical EVS distributions.

The efficiency of large language models (LLMs) remains a critical challenge, particularly in contexts where computational resources are limited. Traditional attention mechanisms in these models, while powerful, require significant computational and memory resources due to the necessity of recalculating and storing attention weights across different layers. This paper introduces a novel Shared Attention (SA) mechanism, designed to enhance the efficiency of LLMs by directly sharing computed attention weights across multiple layers. Unlike previous methods that focus on sharing intermediate Key-Value (KV) caches, our approach utilizes the isotropic tendencies of attention distributions observed in advanced LLMs post-pretraining to reduce both the computational flops and the size of the KV cache required during inference. We empirically demonstrate that implementing SA across various LLMs results in minimal accuracy loss on standard benchmarks. Our findings suggest that SA not only conserves computational resources but also maintains robust model performance, thereby facilitating the deployment of more efficient LLMs in resource-constrained environments.

Watch time prediction (WTP) has emerged as a pivotal task in short video recommendation systems, designed to quantify user engagement through continuous interaction modeling. Predicting users' watch times on videos often encounters fundamental challenges, including wide value ranges and imbalanced data distributions, which can lead to significant estimation bias when directly applying regression techniques. Recent studies have attempted to address these issues by converting the continuous watch time estimation into an ordinal regression task. While these methods demonstrate partial effectiveness, they exhibit notable limitations: (1) the discretization process frequently relies on bucket partitioning, inherently reducing prediction flexibility and accuracy and (2) the interdependencies among different partition intervals remain underutilized, missing opportunities for effective error correction. Inspired by language modeling paradigms, we propose a novel Generative Regression (GR) framework that reformulates WTP as a sequence generation task. Our approach employs structural discretization to enable nearly lossless value reconstruction while maintaining prediction fidelity. Through carefully designed vocabulary construction and label encoding schemes, each watch time is bijectively mapped to a token sequence. To mitigate the training-inference discrepancy caused by teacher-forcing, we introduce a curriculum learning with embedding mixup strategy that gradually transitions from guided to free-generation modes. We evaluate our method against state-of-the-art approaches on two public datasets and one industrial dataset. We also perform online A/B testing on the Kuaishou App to confirm the real-world effectiveness. The results conclusively show that GR outperforms existing techniques significantly.

Understanding labor market dynamics is essential for policymakers, employers, and job seekers. However, comprehensive datasets that capture real-world career trajectories are scarce. In this paper, we introduce JobHop, a large-scale public dataset derived from anonymized resumes provided by VDAB, the public employment service in Flanders, Belgium. Utilizing Large Language Models (LLMs), we process unstructured resume data to extract structured career information, which is then mapped to standardized ESCO occupation codes using a multi-label classification model. This results in a rich dataset of over 2.3 million work experiences, extracted from and grouped into more than 391,000 user resumes and mapped to standardized ESCO occupation codes, offering valuable insights into real-world occupational transitions. This dataset enables diverse applications, such as analyzing labor market mobility, job stability, and the effects of career breaks on occupational transitions. It also supports career path prediction and other data-driven decision-making processes. To illustrate its potential, we explore key dataset characteristics, including job distributions, career breaks, and job transitions, demonstrating its value for advancing labor market research.

Offline-to-online RL can make full use of pre-collected offline datasets to initialize policies, resulting in higher sample efficiency and better performance compared to only using online algorithms alone for policy training. However, direct fine-tuning of the pre-trained policy tends to result in sub-optimal performance. A primary reason is that conservative offline RL methods diminish the agent's capability of exploration, thereby impacting online fine-tuning performance. To encourage agent's exploration during online fine-tuning and enhance the overall online fine-tuning performance, we propose a generalized reward augmentation method called Sample Efficient Reward Augmentation (SERA). Specifically, SERA encourages agent to explore by computing Q conditioned entropy as intrinsic reward. The advantage of SERA is that it can extensively utilize offline pre-trained Q to encourage agent uniformly coverage of state space while considering the imbalance between the distributions of high-value and low-value states. Additionally, SERA can be effortlessly plugged into various RL algorithms to improve online fine-tuning and ensure sustained asymptotic improvement. Moreover, extensive experimental results demonstrate that when conducting offline-to-online problems, SERA consistently and effectively enhances the performance of various offline algorithms.

Reasoning language models (RLMs), also known as Large Reasoning Models (LRMs), such as OpenAI's o1 and o3, DeepSeek-V3, and Alibaba's QwQ, have redefined AI's problem-solving capabilities by extending large language models (LLMs) with advanced reasoning mechanisms. Yet, their high costs, proprietary nature, and complex architectures - uniquely combining Reinforcement Learning (RL), search heuristics, and LLMs - present accessibility and scalability challenges. To address these, we propose a comprehensive blueprint that organizes RLM components into a modular framework, based on a survey and analysis of all RLM works. This blueprint incorporates diverse reasoning structures (chains, trees, graphs, and nested forms), reasoning strategies (e.g., Monte Carlo Tree Search, Beam Search), RL concepts (policy, value models and others), and supervision schemes (Output-Based and Process-Based Supervision). We also provide detailed mathematical formulations and algorithmic specifications to simplify RLM implementation. By showing how schemes like LLaMA-Berry, QwQ, Journey Learning, and Graph of Thoughts fit as special cases, we demonstrate the blueprint's versatility and unifying potential. To illustrate its utility, we introduce x1, a modular implementation for rapid RLM prototyping and experimentation. Using x1 and a literature review, we provide key insights, such as multi-phase training for policy and value models, and the importance of familiar training distributions. Finally, we outline how RLMs can integrate with a broader LLM ecosystem, including tools and databases. Our work demystifies RLM construction, democratizes advanced reasoning capabilities, and fosters innovation, aiming to mitigate the gap between "rich AI" and "poor AI" by lowering barriers to RLM development and experimentation.

Despite improvements to the generalization performance of automated speech recognition (ASR) models, specializing ASR models for downstream tasks remains a challenging task, primarily due to reduced data availability (necessitating increased data collection), and rapidly shifting data distributions (requiring more frequent model fine-tuning). In this work, we investigate the potential of leveraging external knowledge, particularly through off-policy key-value stores generated with text-to-speech methods, to allow for flexible post-training adaptation to new data distributions. In our approach, audio embeddings captured from text-to-speech, along with semantic text embeddings, are used to bias ASR via an approximate k-nearest-neighbor (KNN) based attentive fusion step. Our experiments on LibiriSpeech and in-house voice assistant/search datasets show that the proposed approach can reduce domain adaptation time by up to 1K GPU-hours while providing up to 3% WER improvement compared to a fine-tuning baseline, suggesting a promising approach for adapting production ASR systems in challenging zero and few-shot scenarios.

In reinforcement learning an agent interacts with the environment by taking actions and observing the next state and reward. When sampled probabilistically, these state transitions, rewards, and actions can all induce randomness in the observed long-term return. Traditionally, reinforcement learning algorithms average over this randomness to estimate the value function. In this paper, we build on recent work advocating a distributional approach to reinforcement learning in which the distribution over returns is modeled explicitly instead of only estimating the mean. That is, we examine methods of learning the value distribution instead of the value function. We give results that close a number of gaps between the theoretical and algorithmic results given by Bellemare, Dabney, and Munos (2017). First, we extend existing results to the approximate distribution setting. Second, we present a novel distributional reinforcement learning algorithm consistent with our theoretical formulation. Finally, we evaluate this new algorithm on the Atari 2600 games, observing that it significantly outperforms many of the recent improvements on DQN, including the related distributional algorithm C51.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has shown remarkable success in solving complex decision-making and control tasks. However, many model-free RL algorithms experience performance degradation due to inaccurate value estimation, particularly the overestimation of Q-values, which can lead to suboptimal policies. To address this issue, we previously proposed the Distributional Soft Actor-Critic (DSAC or DSACv1), an off-policy RL algorithm that enhances value estimation accuracy by learning a continuous Gaussian value distribution. Despite its effectiveness, DSACv1 faces challenges such as training instability and sensitivity to reward scaling, caused by high variance in critic gradients due to return randomness. In this paper, we introduce three key refinements to DSACv1 to overcome these limitations and further improve Q-value estimation accuracy: expected value substitution, twin value distribution learning, and variance-based critic gradient adjustment. The enhanced algorithm, termed DSAC with Three refinements (DSAC-T or DSACv2), is systematically evaluated across a diverse set of benchmark tasks. Without the need for task-specific hyperparameter tuning, DSAC-T consistently matches or outperforms leading model-free RL algorithms, including SAC, TD3, DDPG, TRPO, and PPO, in all tested environments. Additionally, DSAC-T ensures a stable learning process and maintains robust performance across varying reward scales. Its effectiveness is further demonstrated through real-world application in controlling a wheeled robot, highlighting its potential for deployment in practical robotic tasks.

The remarkable progress in Large Language Models (LLMs) opens up new avenues for addressing planning and decision-making problems in Multi-Agent Systems (MAS). However, as the number of agents increases, the issues of hallucination in LLMs and coordination in MAS have become increasingly prominent. Additionally, the efficient utilization of tokens emerges as a critical consideration when employing LLMs to facilitate the interactions among a substantial number of agents. In this paper, we develop a modular framework called LLaMAC to mitigate these challenges. LLaMAC implements a value distribution encoding similar to that found in the human brain, utilizing internal and external feedback mechanisms to facilitate collaboration and iterative reasoning among its modules. Through evaluations involving system resource allocation and robot grid transportation, we demonstrate the considerable advantages afforded by our proposed approach.

Post-training quantization of Large Language Models (LLMs) is challenging. In this work, we introduce Low-rank Quantization Error Reduction (LQER), which combines quantization and low-rank approximation to recover the model capability. LQER leverages an activation-induced scale matrix to drive the singular value distribution of quantization error towards a desirable distribution, which enables nearly-lossless W4A8 quantization on various LLMs and downstream tasks without the need for knowledge distillation, grid search, or gradient-base iterative optimization. Unlike existing methods, the computation pattern of LQER eliminates the need for specialized Scatter and Gather processes to collect high-precision weights from irregular memory locations. Our W4A8 LLMs achieve near-lossless performance on six popular downstream tasks, while using 1.36times fewer hardware resources than the leading state-of-the-art method. We will open-source our framework once the paper is accepted.

While recent low-cost radar-camera approaches have shown promising results in multi-modal 3D object detection, both sensors face challenges from environmental and intrinsic disturbances. Poor lighting or adverse weather conditions degrade camera performance, while radar suffers from noise and positional ambiguity. Achieving robust radar-camera 3D object detection requires consistent performance across varying conditions, a topic that has not yet been fully explored. In this work, we first conduct a systematic analysis of robustness in radar-camera detection on five kinds of noises and propose RobuRCDet, a robust object detection model in BEV. Specifically, we design a 3D Gaussian Expansion (3DGE) module to mitigate inaccuracies in radar points, including position, Radar Cross-Section (RCS), and velocity. The 3DGE uses RCS and velocity priors to generate a deformable kernel map and variance for kernel size adjustment and value distribution. Additionally, we introduce a weather-adaptive fusion module, which adaptively fuses radar and camera features based on camera signal confidence. Extensive experiments on the popular benchmark, nuScenes, show that our model achieves competitive results in regular and noisy conditions.

Large language models (LLMs) show great performance in various tasks, but face deployment challenges from limited memory capacity and bandwidth. Low-bit weight quantization can save memory and accelerate inference. Although floating-point (FP) formats show good performance in LLM quantization, they tend to perform poorly with small group sizes or sub-4 bits. We find the reason is that the absence of asymmetry in previous FP quantization makes it unsuitable for handling asymmetric value distribution of LLM weight tensors. In this work, we propose asymmetric FP quantization (AFPQ), which sets separate scales for positive and negative values. Our method leads to large accuracy improvements and can be easily plugged into other quantization methods, including GPTQ and AWQ, for better performance. Besides, no additional storage is needed compared with asymmetric integer (INT) quantization. The code is available at https://github.com/zhangsichengsjtu/AFPQ.

We introduce a family of random matrices where correlations between matrix elements are induced via interaction-derived Boltzmann factors. Varying these yields access to different ensembles. We find a universal scaling behavior of the finite-size statistics characterized by a heavy-tailed eigenvalue distribution whose extremes are governed by the Fréchet extreme value distribution for the case corresponding to a ferromagnetic Ising transition. The introduction of a finite density of nonlocal interactions restores standard random-matrix behavior. Suitably rescaled average extremes, playing a physical role as an order parameter, can thus discriminate aspects of the interaction structure; they also yield further nonuniversal information. In particular, the link between maximum eigenvalues and order parameters offers a potential route to resolving long-standing problems in statistical physics, such as deriving the exact magnetization scaling function in the two-dimensional Ising model at criticality.

Test-input generation for tensor kernels is folkloric. Most projects pick a representative shape and dtype, run a fixed-shape allclose-style check, and ship. We make the choices explicit and measure them. Using the gpuemu op-schema-aware seeded fuzzer (arXiv:2606.20128), we evaluate seven test-generation strategies across a 26-op corpus (16 correct controls and 10 LLM-style buggy variants seeded with documented transcription patterns) on an RTX 3060 GPU instance. Strategies vary the shape candidate set, the dtype mix, and the input value distribution. We report each strategy on two axes: bug recall and control false-positive (FP) rate. Boundary-only shape sampling is the operationally safe winner: 78% recall on the 10 buggy kernels with 0% FP on the 16 controls. Adversarial value sampling reaches higher recall (99%) but inflates control FP to 94% because the strategy injects NaN and Inf inputs and the validator's NaN check fires on every kernel that propagates them, not only on buggy kernels. On the two softmax tail-mask bugs the "regular" strategy (no boundary shapes) catches 0%, while boundary raises recall to 100% and 62% respectively. That gap is the clearest single signal in the data. The corpus result is about which seeded bug patterns each strategy catches, not about the bug rate of any specific deployed LLM.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated exceptional capabilities across diverse tasks. However, their deployment in long context scenarios remains hindered by computational inefficiency and information redundancy. Context compression methods address these challenges by significantly reducing input length and eliminating redundancy. We propose COMI, a coarse-to-fine adaptive context compression framework that jointly optimizes for semantic relevance and diversity under high compression rates. We introduce Marginal Information Gain (MIG), a metric defined as the relevance of a unit to the input query minus its semantic redundancy with other units, guiding the compression process to prioritize information that is both relevant and low redundant. The framework operates in two stages: (1) Coarse-Grained Group Reallocation, where the context is partitioned into groups and dynamically assigned compression rates based on inter-group MIG, ensuring compression budgets align with information value distribution; and (2) Fine-Grained Token Merging, where tokens within each group are fused via an intra-group MIG-based weighting mechanism, thereby preserving key semantics while avoiding the accumulation of redundancy. Extensive experiments across question-answering (e.g., NaturalQuestions, 2WikiMQA, HotpotQA and NarrativeQA), summarization (e.g., MultiNews) with various backbones (e.g., LLaMA-2-7B, Qwen2-7B) show that COMI outperforms existing baselines by a large margin, e.g., approximately 25-point Exact Match (EM) improvement under 32x compression constraint with Qwen2-7B on NaturalQuestions.

The rapid evolution of generative technologies necessitates reliable methods for detecting AI-generated images. A critical limitation of current detectors is their failure to generalize to images from unseen generative models, as they often overfit to source-specific semantic cues rather than learning universal generative artifacts. To overcome this, we introduce a simple yet remarkably effective pixel-level mapping pre-processing step to disrupt the pixel value distribution of images and break the fragile, non-essential semantic patterns that detectors commonly exploit as shortcuts. This forces the detector to focus on more fundamental and generalizable high-frequency traces inherent to the image generation process. Through comprehensive experiments on GAN and diffusion-based generators, we show that our approach significantly boosts the cross-generator performance of state-of-the-art detectors. Extensive analysis further verifies our hypothesis that the disruption of semantic cues is the key to generalization.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been widely adopted to process long-context tasks. However, the large memory overhead of the key-value (KV) cache poses significant challenges in long-context scenarios. Existing training-free KV cache compression methods typically focus on quantization and token pruning, which have compression limits, and excessive sparsity can lead to severe performance degradation. Other methods design new architectures with less KV overhead but require significant training overhead. To address the above two drawbacks, we further explore the redundancy in the channel dimension and apply an architecture-level design with minor training costs. Therefore, we introduce CSKV, a training-efficient Channel Shrinking technique for KV cache compression: (1) We first analyze the singular value distribution of the KV cache, revealing significant redundancy and compression potential along the channel dimension. Based on this observation, we propose using low-rank decomposition for key and value layers and storing the low-dimension features. (2) To preserve model performance, we introduce a bi-branch KV cache, including a window-based full-precision KV cache and a low-precision compressed KV cache. (3) To reduce the training costs, we minimize the layer-wise reconstruction loss for the compressed KV cache instead of retraining the entire LLMs. Extensive experiments show that CSKV can reduce the memory overhead of the KV cache by 80% while maintaining the model's long-context capability. Moreover, we show that our method can be seamlessly combined with quantization to further reduce the memory overhead, achieving a compression ratio of up to 95%.

In this paper, we investigate a problem of actively learning threshold in latent space, where the unknown reward g(gamma, v) depends on the proposed threshold gamma and latent value v and it can be only achieved if the threshold is lower than or equal to the unknown latent value. This problem has broad applications in practical scenarios, e.g., reserve price optimization in online auctions, online task assignments in crowdsourcing, setting recruiting bars in hiring, etc. We first characterize the query complexity of learning a threshold with the expected reward at most epsilon smaller than the optimum and prove that the number of queries needed can be infinitely large even when g(gamma, v) is monotone with respect to both gamma and v. On the positive side, we provide a tight query complexity Theta(1/epsilon^3) when g is monotone and the CDF of value distribution is Lipschitz. Moreover, we show a tight Theta(1/epsilon^3) query complexity can be achieved as long as g satisfies one-sided Lipschitzness, which provides a complete characterization for this problem. Finally, we extend this model to an online learning setting and demonstrate a tight Theta(T^{2/3}) regret bound using continuous-arm bandit techniques and the aforementioned query complexity results.

Budget management strategies in repeated auctions have received growing attention in online advertising markets. However, previous work on budget management in online bidding mainly focused on second-price auctions. The rapid shift from second-price auctions to first-price auctions for online ads in recent years has motivated the challenging question of how to bid in repeated first-price auctions while controlling budgets. In this work, we study the problem of learning in repeated first-price auctions with budgets. We design a dual-based algorithm that can achieve a near-optimal O(T) regret with full information feedback where the maximum competing bid is always revealed after each auction. We further consider the setting with one-sided information feedback where only the winning bid is revealed after each auction. We show that our modified algorithm can still achieve an O(T) regret with mild assumptions on the bidder's value distribution. Finally, we complement the theoretical results with numerical experiments to confirm the effectiveness of our budget management policy.

We study the problem of training and fine-tuning expressive policies with online reinforcement learning (RL) given an offline dataset. Training expressive policy classes with online RL present a unique challenge of stable value maximization. Unlike simpler Gaussian policies commonly used in online RL, expressive policies like diffusion and flow-matching policies are parameterized by a long denoising chain, which hinders stable gradient propagation from actions to policy parameters when optimizing against some value function. Our key insight is that we can address stable value maximization by avoiding direct optimization over value with the expressive policy and instead construct an on-the-fly RL policy to maximize Q-value. We propose Expressive Policy Optimization (EXPO), a sample-efficient online RL algorithm that utilizes an on-the-fly policy to maximize value with two parameterized policies -- a larger expressive base policy trained with a stable imitation learning objective and a light-weight Gaussian edit policy that edits the actions sampled from the base policy toward a higher value distribution. The on-the-fly policy optimizes the actions from the base policy with the learned edit policy and chooses the value maximizing action from the base and edited actions for both sampling and temporal-difference (TD) backup. Our approach yields up to 2-3x improvement in sample efficiency on average over prior methods both in the setting of fine-tuning a pretrained policy given offline data and in leveraging offline data to train online.

Previous works on Treatment Effect Estimation (TEE) are not in widespread use because they are predominantly theoretical, where strong parametric assumptions are made but untractable for practical application. Recent work uses multilayer perceptron (MLP) for modeling casual relationships, however, MLPs lag far behind recent advances in ML methodology, which limits their applicability and generalizability. To extend beyond the single domain formulation and towards more realistic learning scenarios, we explore model design spaces beyond MLPs, i.e., transformer backbones, which provide flexibility where attention layers govern interactions among treatments and covariates to exploit structural similarities of potential outcomes for confounding control. Through careful model design, Transformers as Treatment Effect Estimators (TransTEE) is proposed. We show empirically that TransTEE can: (1) serve as a general purpose treatment effect estimator that significantly outperforms competitive baselines in a variety of challenging TEE problems (e.g., discrete, continuous, structured, or dosage-associated treatments) and is applicable to both when covariates are tabular and when they consist of structural data (e.g., texts, graphs); (2) yield multiple advantages: compatibility with propensity score modeling, parameter efficiency, robustness to continuous treatment value distribution shifts, explainable in covariate adjustment, and real-world utility in auditing pre-trained language models

A growing trend for value-based reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms is to capture more information than scalar value functions in the value network. One of the most well-known methods in this branch is distributional RL, which models return distribution instead of scalar value. In another line of work, hybrid reward architectures (HRA) in RL have studied to model source-specific value functions for each source of reward, which is also shown to be beneficial in performance. To fully inherit the benefits of distributional RL and hybrid reward architectures, we introduce Multi-Dimensional Distributional DQN (MD3QN), which extends distributional RL to model the joint return distribution from multiple reward sources. As a by-product of joint distribution modeling, MD3QN can capture not only the randomness in returns for each source of reward, but also the rich reward correlation between the randomness of different sources. We prove the convergence for the joint distributional Bellman operator and build our empirical algorithm by minimizing the Maximum Mean Discrepancy between joint return distribution and its Bellman target. In experiments, our method accurately models the joint return distribution in environments with richly correlated reward functions, and outperforms previous RL methods utilizing multi-dimensional reward functions in the control setting.

Training reinforcement learning (RL) systems in real-world environments remains challenging due to noisy supervision and poor out-of-domain (OOD) generalization, especially in LLM post-training. Recent distributional RL methods improve robustness by modeling values with multiple quantile points, but they still learn each quantile independently as a scalar. This results in rough-grained value representations that lack fine-grained conditioning on state information, struggling under complex and OOD conditions. We propose DFPO (Distributional Value Flow Policy Optimization with Conditional Risk and Consistency Control), a robust distributional RL framework that models values as continuous flows across time steps. By scaling value modeling through learning of a value flow field instead of isolated quantile predictions, DFPO captures richer state information for more accurate advantage estimation. To stabilize training under noisy feedback, DFPO further integrates conditional risk control and consistency constraints along value flow trajectories. Experiments on dialogue, math reasoning, and scientific tasks show that DFPO outperforms PPO, FlowRL, and other robust baselines under noisy supervision, achieving improved training stability and generalization.

We study the problem of predicting numeric labels that are constrained to the integers or to a subrange of the integers. For example, the number of up-votes on social media posts, or the number of bicycles available at a public rental station. While it is possible to model these as continuous values, and to apply traditional regression, this approach changes the underlying distribution on the labels from discrete to continuous. Discrete distributions have certain benefits, which leads us to the question whether such integer labels can be modeled directly by a discrete distribution, whose parameters are predicted from the features of a given instance. Moreover, we focus on the use case of output distributions of neural networks, which adds the requirement that the parameters of the distribution be continuous so that backpropagation and gradient descent may be used to learn the weights of the network. We investigate several options for such distributions, some existing and some novel, and test them on a range of tasks, including tabular learning, sequential prediction and image generation. We find that overall the best performance comes from two distributions: Bitwise, which represents the target integer in bits and places a Bernoulli distribution on each, and a discrete analogue of the Laplace distribution, which uses a distribution with exponentially decaying tails around a continuous mean.

This paper introduces a novel approach to financial risk analysis that does not rely on traditional price and market data, instead using market news to model assets as distributions over a metric space of risk factors. By representing asset returns as integrals over the scalar field of these risk factors, we derive the covariance structure between asset returns. Utilizing encoder-only language models to embed this news data, we explore the relationships between asset return distributions through the concept of Energy Distance, establishing connections between distributional differences and excess returns co-movements. This data-agnostic approach provides new insights into portfolio diversification, risk management, and the construction of hedging strategies. Our findings have significant implications for both theoretical finance and practical risk management, offering a more robust framework for modelling complex financial systems without depending on conventional market data.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has become a key method for aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preferences through the use of reward models. However, traditional reward models typically generate point estimates, which oversimplify the diversity and complexity of human values and preferences. In this paper, we introduce Quantile Reward Models (QRMs), a novel approach to reward modeling that learns a distribution over rewards instead of a single scalar value. Our method uses quantile regression to estimate a full, potentially multimodal distribution over preferences, providing a more powerful and nuanced representation of preferences. This distributional approach can better capture the diversity of human values, addresses label noise, and accommodates conflicting preferences by modeling them as distinct modes in the distribution. Our experimental results show that QRM outperforms comparable traditional point-estimate models on RewardBench. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the additional information provided by the distributional estimates can be utilized in downstream applications, such as risk-aware reinforcement learning, resulting in LLM policies that generate fewer extremely negative responses. Our code and model are released at https://github.com/Nicolinho/QRM.

Realistic virtual humans play a crucial role in numerous industries, such as metaverse, intelligent healthcare, and self-driving simulation. But creating them on a large scale with high levels of realism remains a challenge. The utilization of deep implicit function sparks a new era of image-based 3D clothed human reconstruction, enabling pixel-aligned shape recovery with fine details. Subsequently, the vast majority of works locate the surface by regressing the deterministic implicit value for each point. However, should all points be treated equally regardless of their proximity to the surface? In this paper, we propose replacing the implicit value with an adaptive uncertainty distribution, to differentiate between points based on their distance to the surface. This simple ``value to distribution'' transition yields significant improvements on nearly all the baselines. Furthermore, qualitative results demonstrate that the models trained using our uncertainty distribution loss, can capture more intricate wrinkles, and realistic limbs. Code and models are available for research purposes at https://github.com/psyai-net/D-IF_release.

Recent advances in reinforcement learning (RL)-based post-training have led to notable improvements in large language models (LLMs), particularly in enhancing their reasoning capabilities to handle complex tasks. However, most existing methods treat the training data as a unified whole, overlooking the fact that modern LLM training often involves a mixture of data from diverse distributions-varying in both source and difficulty. This heterogeneity introduces a key challenge: how to adaptively schedule training across distributions to optimize learning efficiency. In this paper, we present a principled curriculum learning framework grounded in the notion of distribution-level learnability. Our core insight is that the magnitude of policy advantages reflects how much a model can still benefit from further training on a given distribution. Based on this, we propose a distribution-level curriculum learning framework for RL-based LLM post-training, which leverages the Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) principle to dynamically adjust sampling probabilities for different distrubutions. This approach prioritizes distributions with either high average advantage (exploitation) or low sample count (exploration), yielding an adaptive and theoretically grounded training schedule. We instantiate our curriculum learning framework with GRPO as the underlying RL algorithm and demonstrate its effectiveness on logic reasoning datasets with multiple difficulties and sources. Our experiments show that our framework significantly improves convergence speed and final performance, highlighting the value of distribution-aware curriculum strategies in LLM post-training. Code: https://github.com/ZhentingWang/DUMP.

We develop an econometric framework integrating heavy-tailed Student's t distributions with behavioral probability weighting while preserving infinite divisibility. Using 432{,}752 observations across 86 assets (2004--2024), we demonstrate Student's t specifications outperform Gaussian models in 88.4\% of cases. Bounded probability-weighting transformations preserve mathematical properties required for dynamic pricing. Gaussian models underestimate 99\% Value-at-Risk by 19.7\% versus 3.2\% for our specification. Joint estimation procedures identify tail and behavioral parameters with established asymptotic properties. Results provide robust inference for asset-pricing applications where heavy tails and behavioral distortions coexist.

This article introduces Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) with Distribution-Valued Outcomes (R3D), extending the standard RDD framework to settings where the outcome is a distribution rather than a scalar. Such settings arise when treatment is assigned at a higher level of aggregation than the outcome-for example, when a subsidy is allocated based on a firm-level revenue cutoff while the outcome of interest is the distribution of employee wages within the firm. Since standard RDD methods cannot accommodate such two-level randomness, I propose a novel approach based on random distributions. The target estimand is a "local average quantile treatment effect", which averages across random quantiles. To estimate this target, I introduce two related approaches: one that extends local polynomial regression to random quantiles and another based on local Fr\'echet regression, a form of functional regression. For both estimators, I establish asymptotic normality and develop uniform, debiased confidence bands together with a data-driven bandwidth selection procedure. Simulations validate these theoretical properties and show existing methods to be biased and inconsistent in this setting. I then apply the proposed methods to study the effects of gubernatorial party control on within-state income distributions in the US, using a close-election design. The results suggest a classic equality-efficiency tradeoff under Democratic governorship, driven by reductions in income at the top of the distribution.

In this work, we build on recent advances in distributional reinforcement learning to give a generally applicable, flexible, and state-of-the-art distributional variant of DQN. We achieve this by using quantile regression to approximate the full quantile function for the state-action return distribution. By reparameterizing a distribution over the sample space, this yields an implicitly defined return distribution and gives rise to a large class of risk-sensitive policies. We demonstrate improved performance on the 57 Atari 2600 games in the ALE, and use our algorithm's implicitly defined distributions to study the effects of risk-sensitive policies in Atari games.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) is bottlenecked by reward hacking, where the policy exploits errors in a proxy reward model (RM) and produces high RM scores without genuine quality gains. A natural mitigation is pessimism: lowering rewards in regions where the RM is uncertain. However, standard scalar RMs provide no principled notion of uncertainty. We argue that the right object is a distributional reward model p(rmid x,y). Under either a Bayesian inference or a KL-distributionally robust optimization (KL-DRO) lens, the KL-regularized RLHF objective admits a closed-form effective reward tilde r(x,y) = pmβlogE_p[e^{pm r/β}]. The pessimistic branch unifies the prior heuristics for RM ensemble aggregation: mean aggregation, worst-case optimization (WCO), and uncertainty-weighted optimization (UWO) all emerge as limits or truncations of this single expression. This also clarifies the implicit assumptions of each existing rule.

Collections of probability distributions arise in a variety of applications ranging from user activity pattern analysis to brain connectomics. In practice these distributions can be defined over diverse domain types including finite intervals, circles, cylinders, spheres, other manifolds, and graphs. This paper introduces an approach for detecting differences between two collections of distributions over such general domains. To this end, we propose the intrinsic slicing construction that yields a novel class of Wasserstein distances on manifolds and graphs. These distances are Hilbert embeddable, allowing us to reduce the distribution collection comparison problem to a more familiar mean testing problem in a Hilbert space. We provide two testing procedures one based on resampling and another on combining p-values from coordinate-wise tests. Our experiments in various synthetic and real data settings show that the resulting tests are powerful and the p-values are well-calibrated.

In reinforcement learning and imitation learning, an object of central importance is the state distribution induced by the policy. It plays a crucial role in the policy gradient theorem, and references to it--along with the related state-action distribution--can be found all across the literature. Despite its importance, the state distribution is mostly discussed indirectly and theoretically, rather than being modeled explicitly. The reason being an absence of appropriate density estimation tools. In this work, we investigate applications of a normalizing flow-based model for the aforementioned distributions. In particular, we use a pair of flows coupled through the optimality point of the Donsker-Varadhan representation of the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, for distribution matching based imitation learning. Our algorithm, Coupled Flow Imitation Learning (CFIL), achieves state-of-the-art performance on benchmark tasks with a single expert trajectory and extends naturally to a variety of other settings, including the subsampled and state-only regimes.

In contrast to classical reinforcement learning, distributional reinforcement learning algorithms aim to learn the distribution of returns rather than their expected value. Since the nature of the return distribution is generally unknown a priori or arbitrarily complex, a common approach finds approximations within a set of representable, parametric distributions. Typically, this involves a projection of the unconstrained distribution onto the set of simplified distributions. We argue that this projection step entails a strong inductive bias when coupled with neural networks and gradient descent, thereby profoundly impacting the generalization behavior of learned models. In order to facilitate reliable uncertainty estimation through diversity, this work studies the combination of several different projections and representations in a distributional ensemble. We establish theoretical properties of such projection ensembles and derive an algorithm that uses ensemble disagreement, measured by the average 1-Wasserstein distance, as a bonus for deep exploration. We evaluate our algorithm on the behavior suite benchmark and find that diverse projection ensembles lead to significant performance improvements over existing methods on a wide variety of tasks with the most pronounced gains in directed exploration problems.

The robustness of legged locomotion is crucial for quadrupedal robots in challenging terrains. Recently, Reinforcement Learning (RL) has shown promising results in legged locomotion and various methods try to integrate privileged distillation, scene modeling, and external sensors to improve the generalization and robustness of locomotion policies. However, these methods are hard to handle uncertain scenarios such as abrupt terrain changes or unexpected external forces. In this paper, we consider a novel risk-sensitive perspective to enhance the robustness of legged locomotion. Specifically, we employ a distributional value function learned by quantile regression to model the aleatoric uncertainty of environments, and perform risk-averse policy learning by optimizing the worst-case scenarios via a risk distortion measure. Extensive experiments in both simulation environments and a real Aliengo robot demonstrate that our method is efficient in handling various external disturbances, and the resulting policy exhibits improved robustness in harsh and uncertain situations in legged locomotion. Videos are available at https://risk-averse-locomotion.github.io/.

This research presents a framework for quantitative risk management in volatile markets, specifically focusing on expectile-based methodologies applied to the FTSE 100 index. Traditional risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) have demonstrated significant limitations during periods of market stress, as evidenced during the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent volatile periods. This study develops an advanced expectile-based framework that addresses the shortcomings of conventional quantile-based approaches by providing greater sensitivity to tail losses and improved stability in extreme market conditions. The research employs a dataset spanning two decades of FTSE 100 returns, incorporating periods of high volatility, market crashes, and recovery phases. Our methodology introduces novel mathematical formulations for expectile regression models, enhanced threshold determination techniques using time series analysis, and robust backtesting procedures. The empirical results demonstrate that expectile-based Value-at-Risk (EVaR) consistently outperforms traditional VaR measures across various confidence levels and market conditions. The framework exhibits superior performance during volatile periods, with reduced model risk and enhanced predictive accuracy. Furthermore, the study establishes practical implementation guidelines for financial institutions and provides evidence-based recommendations for regulatory compliance and portfolio management. The findings contribute significantly to the literature on financial risk management and offer practical tools for practitioners dealing with volatile market environments.

This article studies the change in the prediction accuracy of a response variable when the number of predictors increases, and all variables follow a multivariate normal distribution. Assuming that the correlations between variables are independently drawn, I show that adding variables leads to globally increasing returns to scale when the mean of the correlation distribution is zero. The speed of learning depends positively on the variance of the correlation distribution. I use simulations to study the more complex case of correlation distributions with a non-zero mean and find a pattern of decreasing returns followed by increasing returns to scale - as long as the variance of correlations is not degenerate, in which case globally decreasing returns emerge. I train a collaborative filtering algorithm using the MovieLens 1M dataset to analyze returns from adding variables in a more realistic setting and find globally increasing returns to scale across 2,000 variables. The results suggest significant scale advantages from additional variables in prediction tasks.

Large language models (LLM) have achieved remarkable outcomes in addressing complex problems, including math, coding, and analyzing large amounts of scientific reports. Yet few works have explored the potential of LLM in quantum computing. The most challenging problem is how to leverage LLMs to automatically generate quantum circuits at a large scale. In this paper, we address such a challenge by fine-tuning LLMs and injecting the domain-specific knowledge of quantum computing. In particular, we investigate the mechanisms to generate training data sets and construct the end-to-end pipeline to fine-tune pre-trained LLMs that produce parameterized quantum circuits for optimization problems. We have prepared 14,000 quantum circuits covering a substantial part of the quantum optimization landscape: 12 optimization problem instances and their optimized QAOA, VQE, and adaptive VQE circuits. The fine-tuned LLMs can construct syntactically correct parametrized quantum circuits in the most recent OpenQASM 3.0. We have evaluated the quality of the parameters by comparing them to the optimized expectation values and distributions. Our evaluation shows that the fine-tuned LLM outperforms state-of-the-art models and that the parameters are better than random. The LLM-generated parametrized circuits and initial parameters can be used as a starting point for further optimization, e.g., templates in quantum machine learning and the benchmark for compilers and hardware.

Scaling up the model size and computation has brought consistent performance improvements in supervised learning. However, this lesson often fails to apply to reinforcement learning (RL) because training the model on non-stationary data easily leads to overfitting and unstable optimization. In response, we introduce SimbaV2, a novel RL architecture designed to stabilize optimization by (i) constraining the growth of weight and feature norm by hyperspherical normalization; and (ii) using a distributional value estimation with reward scaling to maintain stable gradients under varying reward magnitudes. Using the soft actor-critic as a base algorithm, SimbaV2 scales up effectively with larger models and greater compute, achieving state-of-the-art performance on 57 continuous control tasks across 4 domains. The code is available at https://dojeon-ai.github.io/SimbaV2.

When safety is formulated as a limit of cumulative cost, safe reinforcement learning (RL) aims to learn policies that maximize return subject to the cost constraint in data collection and deployment. Off-policy safe RL methods, although offering high sample efficiency, suffer from constraint violations due to cost-agnostic exploration and estimation bias in cumulative cost. To address this issue, we propose Constrained Optimistic eXploration Q-learning (COX-Q), an off-policy safe RL algorithm that integrates cost-bounded online exploration and conservative offline distributional value learning. First, we introduce a novel cost-constrained optimistic exploration strategy that resolves gradient conflicts between reward and cost in the action space and adaptively adjusts the trust region to control the training cost. Second, we adopt truncated quantile critics to stabilize the cost value learning. Quantile critics also quantify epistemic uncertainty to guide exploration. Experiments on safe velocity, safe navigation, and autonomous driving tasks demonstrate that COX-Q achieves high sample efficiency, competitive test safety performance, and controlled data collection cost. The results highlight COX-Q as a promising RL method for safety-critical applications.

In Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR), constructing a robust advantage baseline is critical for policy gradients, effectively guiding the policy model to reinforce desired behaviors. Recent research has introduced Generalist Value Models (such as V_0), which achieve pre-trained value estimation by explicitly encoding model capabilities in-context, eliminating the need to synchronously update the value model alongside the policy model. In this paper, we propose V_{0.5}, which adaptively fuses the baseline predicted by such value model (acting as a prior) with the empirical mean derived from sparse rollouts. This constructs a robust baseline that balances computational efficiency with extremely low variance. Specifically, we introduce a real-time statistical testing and dynamic budget allocation. This balances the high variance caused by sparse sampling against the systematic bias (or hallucinations) inherent in the value model's prior. By constructing a hypothesis test to evaluate the prior's reliability in real-time, the system dynamically allocates additional rollout budget on demand. This mechanism minimizes the baseline estimator's Mean Squared Error (MSE), guaranteeing stable policy gradients, even under extreme sparsity with a group size of 4. Extensive evaluations across six mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that V_{0.5} significantly outperforms GRPO and DAPO, achieving faster convergence and over some 10% performance improvement.

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques usually incur overhead by having to train multiple model instances or do not produce very diverse predictions. This comprehensive and extensive survey aims to familiarize the reader with an alternative class of models based on the concept of Evidential Deep Learning: For unfamiliar data, they aim to admit "what they don't know", and fall back onto a prior belief. Furthermore, they allow uncertainty estimation in a single model and forward pass by parameterizing distributions over distributions. This survey recapitulates existing works, focusing on the implementation in a classification setting, before surveying the application of the same paradigm to regression. We also reflect on the strengths and weaknesses compared to other existing methods and provide the most fundamental derivations using a unified notation to aid future research.

We consider the problem of approximating a function from L^2 by an element of a given m-dimensional space V_m, associated with some feature map varphi, using evaluations of the function at random points x_1,dots,x_n. After recalling some results on optimal weighted least-squares using independent and identically distributed points, we consider weighted least-squares using projection determinantal point processes (DPP) or volume sampling. These distributions introduce dependence between the points that promotes diversity in the selected features varphi(x_i). We first provide a generalized version of volume-rescaled sampling yielding quasi-optimality results in expectation with a number of samples n = O(mlog(m)), that means that the expected L^2 error is bounded by a constant times the best approximation error in L^2. Also, further assuming that the function is in some normed vector space H continuously embedded in L^2, we further prove that the approximation is almost surely bounded by the best approximation error measured in the H-norm. This includes the cases of functions from L^infty or reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Finally, we present an alternative strategy consisting in using independent repetitions of projection DPP (or volume sampling), yielding similar error bounds as with i.i.d. or volume sampling, but in practice with a much lower number of samples. Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the different strategies.

As post-training processes utilize increasingly large datasets and base models continue to grow in size, the computational demands and implementation challenges of existing algorithms are escalating significantly. In this paper, we propose modeling the changes at the logits level during post-training using a separate neural network (i.e., the value network). After training this network on a small base model using demonstrations, this network can be seamlessly integrated with other pre-trained models during inference, enables them to achieve similar capability enhancements. We systematically investigate the best practices for this paradigm in terms of pre-training weights and connection schemes. We demonstrate that the resulting value network has broad transferability across pre-trained models of different parameter sizes within the same family, models undergoing continuous pre-training within the same family, and models with different vocabularies across families. In certain cases, it can achieve performance comparable to full-parameter fine-tuning. Furthermore, we explore methods to enhance the transferability of the value model and prevent overfitting to the base model used during training.

Credit assignment is a central challenge in reinforcement learning (RL). Classical actor-critic methods address this challenge through fine-grained advantage estimation based on a learned value function. However, learned value models are often avoided in modern large language model (LLM) RL because conventional discriminative critics are difficult to train reliably. We revisit value modeling and argue that this difficulty is partly due to limited expressiveness. In particular, representation complexity theory suggests that value functions can be hard to approximate under the one-shot prediction paradigm used by existing value models, and our scaling experiments show that such critics do not improve reliably with scale. Motivated by this observation, we propose Generative Actor-Critic (GenAC), which replaces one-shot scalar value prediction with a generative critic that performs chain-of-thought reasoning before producing a value estimate. We further introduce In-Context Conditioning, which helps the critic remain calibrated to the current actor throughout training. GenAC improves value approximation, ranking reliability, and out-of-distribution generalization, and these gains translate into stronger downstream RL performance than both value-based and value-free baselines. Overall, our results suggest that stronger value modeling is a promising direction for improving credit assignment in LLM reinforcement learning.

We present a modular semantic account of Bayesian inference algorithms for probabilistic programming languages, as used in data science and machine learning. Sophisticated inference algorithms are often explained in terms of composition of smaller parts. However, neither their theoretical justification nor their implementation reflects this modularity. We show how to conceptualise and analyse such inference algorithms as manipulating intermediate representations of probabilistic programs using higher-order functions and inductive types, and their denotational semantics. Semantic accounts of continuous distributions use measurable spaces. However, our use of higher-order functions presents a substantial technical difficulty: it is impossible to define a measurable space structure over the collection of measurable functions between arbitrary measurable spaces that is compatible with standard operations on those functions, such as function application. We overcome this difficulty using quasi-Borel spaces, a recently proposed mathematical structure that supports both function spaces and continuous distributions. We define a class of semantic structures for representing probabilistic programs, and semantic validity criteria for transformations of these representations in terms of distribution preservation. We develop a collection of building blocks for composing representations. We use these building blocks to validate common inference algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To emphasize the connection between the semantic manipulation and its traditional measure theoretic origins, we use Kock's synthetic measure theory. We demonstrate its usefulness by proving a quasi-Borel counterpart to the Metropolis-Hastings-Green theorem.

We present a general convergent class of reinforcement learning algorithms that is founded on two distinct principles: (1) mapping value estimates to a different space using arbitrary functions from a broad class, and (2) linearly decomposing the reward signal into multiple channels. The first principle enables incorporating specific properties into the value estimator that can enhance learning. The second principle, on the other hand, allows for the value function to be represented as a composition of multiple utility functions. This can be leveraged for various purposes, e.g. dealing with highly varying reward scales, incorporating a priori knowledge about the sources of reward, and ensemble learning. Combining the two principles yields a general blueprint for instantiating convergent algorithms by orchestrating diverse mapping functions over multiple reward channels. This blueprint generalizes and subsumes algorithms such as Q-Learning, Log Q-Learning, and Q-Decomposition. In addition, our convergence proof for this general class relaxes certain required assumptions in some of these algorithms. Based on our theory, we discuss several interesting configurations as special cases. Finally, to illustrate the potential of the design space that our theory opens up, we instantiate a particular algorithm and evaluate its performance on the Atari suite.

We study distributionally robust expected values under optimal transport distance with a quadratic cost function. In general the duality method, for this computation for the payoff function f, requires the computation of the λc-transform f^{λc}. We show that under the quadratic cost function there exists an intuitive and easily implementable representation of f^{λc}, if f is convex and piecewise linear. We apply this to the robust expected shortfall under the risk-neutral measure of an unhedged call option, from the point of view of the writer, as well as that of a portfolio mixing underlying shares with a call and a put option.

A variety of recent papers discuss the application of Shapley values, a concept for explaining coalitional games, for feature attribution in machine learning. However, the correct way to connect a machine learning model to a coalitional game has been a source of controversy. The two main approaches that have been proposed differ in the way that they condition on known features, using either (1) an interventional or (2) an observational conditional expectation. While previous work has argued that one of the two approaches is preferable in general, we argue that the choice is application dependent. Furthermore, we argue that the choice comes down to whether it is desirable to be true to the model or true to the data. We use linear models to investigate this choice. After deriving an efficient method for calculating observational conditional expectation Shapley values for linear models, we investigate how correlation in simulated data impacts the convergence of observational conditional expectation Shapley values. Finally, we present two real data examples that we consider to be representative of possible use cases for feature attribution -- (1) credit risk modeling and (2) biological discovery. We show how a different choice of value function performs better in each scenario, and how possible attributions are impacted by modeling choices.

Diffusion models have emerged as powerful generative tools across various domains, yet tailoring pre-trained models to exhibit specific desirable properties remains challenging. While reinforcement learning (RL) offers a promising solution,current methods struggle to simultaneously achieve stable, efficient fine-tuning and support non-differentiable rewards. Furthermore, their reliance on sparse rewards provides inadequate supervision during intermediate steps, often resulting in suboptimal generation quality. To address these limitations, dense and differentiable signals are required throughout the diffusion process. Hence, we propose VAlue-based Reinforced Diffusion (VARD): a novel approach that first learns a value function predicting expection of rewards from intermediate states, and subsequently uses this value function with KL regularization to provide dense supervision throughout the generation process. Our method maintains proximity to the pretrained model while enabling effective and stable training via backpropagation. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach facilitates better trajectory guidance, improves training efficiency and extends the applicability of RL to diffusion models optimized for complex, non-differentiable reward functions.

In dynamic programming (DP) and reinforcement learning (RL), an agent learns to act optimally in terms of expected long-term return by sequentially interacting with its environment modeled by a Markov decision process (MDP). More generally in distributional reinforcement learning (DRL), the focus is on the whole distribution of the return, not just its expectation. Although DRL-based methods produced state-of-the-art performance in RL with function approximation, they involve additional quantities (compared to the non-distributional setting) that are still not well understood. As a first contribution, we introduce a new class of distributional operators, together with a practical DP algorithm for policy evaluation, that come with a robust MDP interpretation. Indeed, our approach reformulates through an augmented state space where each state is split into a worst-case substate and a best-case substate, whose values are maximized by safe and risky policies respectively. Finally, we derive distributional operators and DP algorithms solving a new control task: How to distinguish safe from risky optimal actions in order to break ties in the space of optimal policies?

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

The paper studies the linear model for Bitcoin price which includes regression features based on Bitcoin currency statistics, mining processes, Google search trends, Wikipedia pages visits. The pattern of deviation of regression model prediction from real prices is simpler comparing to price time series. It is assumed that this pattern can be predicted by an experienced expert. In such a way, using the combination of the regression model and expert correction, one can receive better results than with either regression model or expert opinion only. It is shown that Bayesian approach makes it possible to utilize the probabilistic approach using distributions with fat tails and take into account the outliers in Bitcoin price time series.

This paper studies distributional model risk in marginal problems, where each marginal measure is assumed to lie in a Wasserstein ball centered at a fixed reference measure with a given radius. Theoretically, we establish several fundamental results including strong duality, finiteness of the proposed Wasserstein distributional model risk, and the existence of an optimizer at each radius. In addition, we show continuity of the Wasserstein distributional model risk as a function of the radius. Using strong duality, we extend the well-known Makarov bounds for the distribution function of the sum of two random variables with given marginals to Wasserstein distributionally robust Markarov bounds. Practically, we illustrate our results on four distinct applications when the sample information comes from multiple data sources and only some marginal reference measures are identified. They are: partial identification of treatment effects; externally valid treatment choice via robust welfare functions; Wasserstein distributionally robust estimation under data combination; and evaluation of the worst aggregate risk measures.

We investigate statistical properties of a likelihood approach to nonparametric estimation of a singular distribution using deep generative models. More specifically, a deep generative model is used to model high-dimensional data that are assumed to concentrate around some low-dimensional structure. Estimating the distribution supported on this low-dimensional structure, such as a low-dimensional manifold, is challenging due to its singularity with respect to the Lebesgue measure in the ambient space. In the considered model, a usual likelihood approach can fail to estimate the target distribution consistently due to the singularity. We prove that a novel and effective solution exists by perturbing the data with an instance noise, which leads to consistent estimation of the underlying distribution with desirable convergence rates. We also characterize the class of distributions that can be efficiently estimated via deep generative models. This class is sufficiently general to contain various structured distributions such as product distributions, classically smooth distributions and distributions supported on a low-dimensional manifold. Our analysis provides some insights on how deep generative models can avoid the curse of dimensionality for nonparametric distribution estimation. We conduct a thorough simulation study and real data analysis to empirically demonstrate that the proposed data perturbation technique improves the estimation performance significantly.

Conventional reinforcement learning strategies for visual generation typically employ sample-wise reward functions, yet this practice frequently results in reward hacking that degrades image diversity and introduces visual anomalies. To address these limitations, we present a novel framework that finetunes generative models using distribution-wise rewards, ensuring better alignment with real-world data distributions. Unlike rewards that evaluate samples individually, distribution-wise reward accounts for the data distribution of the samples, mitigating the mode collapse problem that occurs when all samples optimize towards the same direction independently. To overcome the prohibitive computational cost of estimating these rewards, we introduce a subset-replace strategy that efficiently provides reward signals by updating only a small subset of a generated reference set. Additionally, we apply RL to optimize post-hoc model merging coefficients, potentially mitigating the train-inference inconsistency caused by introducing stochastic differential equation (SDE) in regular RL practices. Extensive experiments show our approach significantly improves FID-50K across various base models, from 8.30 to 5.77 for SiT and from 3.74 to 3.52 for EDM2. Qualitative evaluation also confirms that our method enhances perceptual quality while preserving sample diversity.

We introduce a general, flexible, parametric survival modelling framework which encompasses key shapes of hazard function (constant, increasing, decreasing, up-then-down, down-then-up), various common survival distributions (log-logistic, Burr type XII, Weibull, Gompertz), and includes defective distributions (i.e., cure models). This generality is achieved using four basic distributional parameters: two scale-type parameters and two shape parameters. Generalising to covariate dependence, the scale-type regression components correspond to accelerated failure time (AFT) and proportional hazards (PH) models. Therefore, this general formulation unifies the most popular survival models which allows us to consider the practical value of possible modelling choices for survival data. Furthermore, in line with our proposed flexible baseline distribution, we advocate the use of multi-parameter regression in which more than one distributional parameter depends on covariates - rather than the usual convention of having a single covariate-dependent (scale) parameter. While many choices are available, we suggest introducing covariates through just one or other of the two scale parameters, which covers AFT and PH models, in combination with a `power' shape parameter, which allows for more complex non-AFT/non-PH effects, while the other shape parameter remains covariate-independent, and handles automatic selection of the baseline distribution. We explore inferential issues in simulations, both with and without a covariate, with particular focus on evidence concerning the need, or otherwise, to include both AFT and PH parameters. We illustrate the efficacy of our modelling framework by investigating differences between treatment groups using data from a lung cancer study and a melanoma study. Censoring is accommodated throughout.

Value functions are a central component of deep reinforcement learning (RL). These functions, parameterized by neural networks, are trained using a mean squared error regression objective to match bootstrapped target values. However, scaling value-based RL methods that use regression to large networks, such as high-capacity Transformers, has proven challenging. This difficulty is in stark contrast to supervised learning: by leveraging a cross-entropy classification loss, supervised methods have scaled reliably to massive networks. Observing this discrepancy, in this paper, we investigate whether the scalability of deep RL can also be improved simply by using classification in place of regression for training value functions. We demonstrate that value functions trained with categorical cross-entropy significantly improves performance and scalability in a variety of domains. These include: single-task RL on Atari 2600 games with SoftMoEs, multi-task RL on Atari with large-scale ResNets, robotic manipulation with Q-transformers, playing Chess without search, and a language-agent Wordle task with high-capacity Transformers, achieving state-of-the-art results on these domains. Through careful analysis, we show that the benefits of categorical cross-entropy primarily stem from its ability to mitigate issues inherent to value-based RL, such as noisy targets and non-stationarity. Overall, we argue that a simple shift to training value functions with categorical cross-entropy can yield substantial improvements in the scalability of deep RL at little-to-no cost.

In this work, we aim to reconcile several apparently contradictory observations in market microstructure: is the famous "square-root law" of metaorder impact, which decays with time, compatible with the random-walk nature of prices and the linear impact of order imbalances? Can one entirely explain the volatility of prices as resulting from the flow of uninformed metaorders that mechanically impact them? We introduce a new theoretical framework to describe metaorders with different signs, sizes and durations, which all impact prices as a square-root of volume but with a subsequent time decay. We show that, as in the original propagator model, price diffusion is ensured by the long memory of cross-correlations between metaorders. In order to account for the effect of strongly fluctuating volumes q of individual trades, we further introduce two q-dependent exponents, which allow us to describe how the moments of generalized volume imbalance and the correlation between price changes and generalized order flow imbalance scale with T. We predict in particular that the corresponding power-laws depend in a non-monotonic fashion on a parameter a, which allows one to put the same weight on all child orders or to overweight large ones, a behaviour that is clearly borne out by empirical data. We also predict that the correlation between price changes and volume imbalances should display a maximum as a function of a, which again matches observations. Such noteworthy agreement between theory and data suggests that our framework correctly captures the basic mechanism at the heart of price formation, namely the average impact of metaorders. We argue that our results support the "Order-Driven" theory of excess volatility, and are at odds with the idea that a "Fundamental" component accounts for a large share of the volatility of financial markets.

Control variates are variance reduction tools for Monte Carlo estimators. They can provide significant variance reduction, but usually require a large number of samples, which can be prohibitive when sampling or evaluating the integrand is computationally expensive. Furthermore, there are many scenarios where we need to compute multiple related integrals simultaneously or sequentially, which can further exacerbate computational costs. In this paper, we propose vector-valued control variates, an extension of control variates which can be used to reduce the variance of multiple Monte Carlo estimators jointly. This allows for the transfer of information across integration tasks, and hence reduces the need for a large number of samples. We focus on control variates based on kernel interpolants and our novel construction is obtained through a generalised Stein identity and the development of novel matrix-valued Stein reproducing kernels. We demonstrate our methodology on a range of problems including multifidelity modelling, Bayesian inference for dynamical systems, and model evidence computation through thermodynamic integration.

A distribution shift can have fundamental consequences such as signaling a change in the operating environment or significantly reducing the accuracy of downstream models. Thus, understanding distribution shifts is critical for examining and hopefully mitigating the effect of such a shift. Most prior work focuses on merely detecting if a shift has occurred and assumes any detected shift can be understood and handled appropriately by a human operator. We hope to aid in these manual mitigation tasks by explaining the distribution shift using interpretable transportation maps from the original distribution to the shifted one. We derive our interpretable mappings from a relaxation of optimal transport, where the candidate mappings are restricted to a set of interpretable mappings. We then inspect multiple quintessential use-cases of distribution shift in real-world tabular, text, and image datasets to showcase how our explanatory mappings provide a better balance between detail and interpretability than baseline explanations by both visual inspection and our PercentExplained metric.

The estimation of loss distributions for dynamic portfolios requires the simulation of scenarios representing realistic joint dynamics of their components. We propose a novel data-driven approach for simulating realistic, high-dimensional multi-asset scenarios, focusing on accurately representing tail risk for a class of static and dynamic trading strategies. We exploit the joint elicitability property of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) to design a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) that learns to simulate price scenarios preserving these tail risk features. We demonstrate the performance of our algorithm on synthetic and market data sets through detailed numerical experiments. In contrast to previously proposed data-driven scenario generators, our proposed method correctly captures tail risk for a broad class of trading strategies and demonstrates strong generalization capabilities. In addition, combining our method with principal component analysis of the input data enhances its scalability to large-dimensional multi-asset time series, setting our framework apart from the univariate settings commonly considered in the literature.

We propose a credit risk model for portfolios composed of green and brown loans, extending the ASRF framework via a two-factor copula structure. Systematic risk is modeled using potentially skewed distributions, allowing for asymmetric creditworthiness effects, while idiosyncratic risk remains Gaussian. Under a non-uniform exposure setting, we establish convergence in quadratic mean of the portfolio loss to a limit reflecting the distinct characteristics of the two loan segments. Numerical results confirm the theoretical findings and illustrate how value-at-risk is affected by portfolio granularity, default probabilities, factor loadings, and skewness. Our model accommodates differential sensitivity to systematic shocks and offers a tractable basis for further developments in credit risk modeling, including granularity adjustments, CDO pricing, and empirical analysis of green loan portfolios.

Molecules are frequently represented as graphs, but the underlying 3D molecular geometry (the locations of the atoms) ultimately determines most molecular properties. However, most molecules are not static and at room temperature adopt a wide variety of geometries or conformations. The resulting distribution on geometries p(x) is known as the Boltzmann distribution, and many molecular properties are expectations computed under this distribution. Generating accurate samples from the Boltzmann distribution is therefore essential for computing these expectations accurately. Traditional sampling-based methods are computationally expensive, and most recent machine learning-based methods have focused on identifying modes in this distribution rather than generating true samples. Generating such samples requires capturing conformational variability, and it has been widely recognized that the majority of conformational variability in molecules arises from rotatable bonds. In this work, we present VonMisesNet, a new graph neural network that captures conformational variability via a variational approximation of rotatable bond torsion angles as a mixture of von Mises distributions. We demonstrate that VonMisesNet can generate conformations for arbitrary molecules in a way that is both physically accurate with respect to the Boltzmann distribution and orders of magnitude faster than existing sampling methods.

The relationship between material properties and independent variables such as temperature, external field or time, is usually represented by a curve or surface in a multi-dimensional space. Determining such a curve or surface requires a series of experiments or calculations which are often time and cost consuming. A general strategy uses an appropriate utility function to sample the space to recommend the next optimal experiment or calculation within an active learning loop. However, knowing what the optimal sampling strategy to use to minimize the number of experiments is an outstanding problem. We compare a number of strategies based on directed exploration on several materials problems of varying complexity using a Kriging based model. These include one dimensional curves such as the fatigue life curve for 304L stainless steel and the Liquidus line of the Fe-C phase diagram, surfaces such as the Hartmann 3 function in 3D space and the fitted intermolecular potential for Ar-SH, and a four dimensional data set of experimental measurements for BaTiO3 based ceramics. We also consider the effects of experimental noise on the Hartmann 3 function. We find that directed exploration guided by maximum variance provides better performance overall, converging faster across several data sets. However, for certain problems, the trade-off methods incorporating exploitation can perform at least as well, if not better than maximum variance. Thus, we discuss how the choice of the utility function depends on the distribution of the data, the model performance and uncertainties, additive noise as well as the budget.

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost estimates, and revenue predictions all benefit from being able to quantify the range of possible values accurately. As such, many models have been developed for this problem over many years of research in statistics, machine learning, and related fields. Rather than proposing yet another (new) algorithm for quantile regression we adopt a meta viewpoint: we investigate methods for aggregating any number of conditional quantile models, in order to improve accuracy and robustness. We consider weighted ensembles where weights may vary over not only individual models, but also over quantile levels, and feature values. All of the models we consider in this paper can be fit using modern deep learning toolkits, and hence are widely accessible (from an implementation point of view) and scalable. To improve the accuracy of the predicted quantiles (or equivalently, prediction intervals), we develop tools for ensuring that quantiles remain monotonically ordered, and apply conformal calibration methods. These can be used without any modification of the original library of base models. We also review some basic theory surrounding quantile aggregation and related scoring rules, and contribute a few new results to this literature (for example, the fact that post sorting or post isotonic regression can only improve the weighted interval score). Finally, we provide an extensive suite of empirical comparisons across 34 data sets from two different benchmark repositories.

The presence of distribution shifts poses a significant challenge for deploying modern machine learning models in real-world applications. This work focuses on the target shift problem in a regression setting (Zhang et al., 2013; Nguyen et al., 2016). More specifically, the target variable y (also known as the response variable), which is continuous, has different marginal distributions in the training source and testing domain, while the conditional distribution of features x given y remains the same. While most literature focuses on classification tasks with finite target space, the regression problem has an infinite dimensional target space, which makes many of the existing methods inapplicable. In this work, we show that the continuous target shift problem can be addressed by estimating the importance weight function from an ill-posed integral equation. We propose a nonparametric regularized approach named ReTaSA to solve the ill-posed integral equation and provide theoretical justification for the estimated importance weight function. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been demonstrated with extensive numerical studies on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Distribution shifts -- where the training distribution differs from the test distribution -- can substantially degrade the accuracy of machine learning (ML) systems deployed in the wild. Despite their ubiquity in the real-world deployments, these distribution shifts are under-represented in the datasets widely used in the ML community today. To address this gap, we present WILDS, a curated benchmark of 10 datasets reflecting a diverse range of distribution shifts that naturally arise in real-world applications, such as shifts across hospitals for tumor identification; across camera traps for wildlife monitoring; and across time and location in satellite imaging and poverty mapping. On each dataset, we show that standard training yields substantially lower out-of-distribution than in-distribution performance. This gap remains even with models trained by existing methods for tackling distribution shifts, underscoring the need for new methods for training models that are more robust to the types of distribution shifts that arise in practice. To facilitate method development, we provide an open-source package that automates dataset loading, contains default model architectures and hyperparameters, and standardizes evaluations. Code and leaderboards are available at https://wilds.stanford.edu.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

Calibrated uncertainty estimates in machine learning are crucial to many fields such as autonomous vehicles, medicine, and weather and climate forecasting. While there is extensive literature on uncertainty calibration for classification, the classification findings do not always translate to regression. As a result, modern models for predicting uncertainty in regression settings typically produce uncalibrated and overconfident estimates. To address these gaps, we present a calibration method for regression settings that does not assume a particular uncertainty distribution over the error: Calibrating Regression Uncertainty Distributions Empirically (CRUDE). CRUDE makes the weaker assumption that error distributions have a constant arbitrary shape across the output space, shifted by predicted mean and scaled by predicted standard deviation. We detail a theoretical connection between CRUDE and conformal inference. Across an extensive set of regression tasks, CRUDE demonstrates consistently sharper, better calibrated, and more accurate uncertainty estimates than state-of-the-art techniques.

Score Distillation Sampling (SDS) has emerged as a prevalent technique for text-to-3D generation, enabling 3D content creation by distilling view-dependent information from text-to-2D guidance. However, they frequently exhibit shortcomings such as over-saturated color and excess smoothness. In this paper, we conduct a thorough analysis of SDS and refine its formulation, finding that the core design is to model the distribution of rendered images. Following this insight, we introduce a novel strategy called Variational Distribution Mapping (VDM), which expedites the distribution modeling process by regarding the rendered images as instances of degradation from diffusion-based generation. This special design enables the efficient training of variational distribution by skipping the calculations of the Jacobians in the diffusion U-Net. We also introduce timestep-dependent Distribution Coefficient Annealing (DCA) to further improve distilling precision. Leveraging VDM and DCA, we use Gaussian Splatting as the 3D representation and build a text-to-3D generation framework. Extensive experiments and evaluations demonstrate the capability of VDM and DCA to generate high-fidelity and realistic assets with optimization efficiency.

Learning the tail behavior of a distribution is a notoriously difficult problem. By definition, the number of samples from the tail is small, and deep generative models, such as normalizing flows, tend to concentrate on learning the body of the distribution. In this paper, we focus on improving the ability of normalizing flows to correctly capture the tail behavior and, thus, form more accurate models. We prove that the marginal tailedness of an autoregressive flow can be controlled via the tailedness of the marginals of its base distribution. This theoretical insight leads us to a novel type of flows based on flexible base distributions and data-driven linear layers. An empirical analysis shows that the proposed method improves on the accuracy -- especially on the tails of the distribution -- and is able to generate heavy-tailed data. We demonstrate its application on a weather and climate example, in which capturing the tail behavior is essential.

Recent work shows that flow matching can be effective for scalar Q-value function estimation in reinforcement learning (RL), but it remains unclear why or how this approach differs from standard critics. Contrary to conventional belief, we show that their success is not explained by distributional RL, as explicitly modeling return distributions can reduce performance. Instead, we argue that the use of integration for reading out values and dense velocity supervision at each step of this integration process for training improves TD learning via two mechanisms. First, it enables robust value prediction through test-time recovery, whereby iterative computation through integration dampens errors in early value estimates as more integration steps are performed. This recovery mechanism is absent in monolithic critics. Second, supervising the velocity field at multiple interpolant values induces more plastic feature learning within the network, allowing critics to represent non-stationary TD targets without discarding previously learned features or overfitting to individual TD targets encountered during training. We formalize these effects and validate them empirically, showing that flow-matching critics substantially outperform monolithic critics (2times in final performance and around 5times in sample efficiency) in settings where loss of plasticity poses a challenge e.g., in high-UTD online RL problems, while remaining stable during learning.

World models can enable Model Predictive Control (MPC), but this requires dynamics prediction that is both fast enough for online use and expressive enough to represent uncertain futures. Diffusion models offer a natural mechanism for modeling uncertain dynamics, yet their iterative inference procedure makes them difficult to use for low-latency latent planning. We bridge this gap with Value Diffusion World Models (Valdi), combining end-to-end online training for MPC with a latent diffusion dynamics model. In preliminary experiments on the CarRacing environment, we show that Valdi, using a single diffusion step at both training and inference, matches a deterministic MLP baseline. Our experiments expose a trade-off between predictive multimodality and control performance in this setup. Code is available at https://github.com/Kit115/ValueDiffusionWorldModels.

This paper studies Kernel density estimation for a high-dimensional distribution rho(x). Traditional approaches have focused on the limit of large number of data points n and fixed dimension d. We analyze instead the regime where both the number n of data points y_i and their dimensionality d grow with a fixed ratio alpha=(log n)/d. Our study reveals three distinct statistical regimes for the kernel-based estimate of the density hat rho_h^{D}(x)=1{n h^d}sum_{i=1}^n Kleft(x-y_i{h}right), depending on the bandwidth h: a classical regime for large bandwidth where the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) holds, which is akin to the one found in traditional approaches. Below a certain value of the bandwidth, h_{CLT}(alpha), we find that the CLT breaks down. The statistics of hat rho_h^{D}(x) for a fixed x drawn from rho(x) is given by a heavy-tailed distribution (an alpha-stable distribution). In particular below a value h_G(alpha), we find that hat rho_h^{D}(x) is governed by extreme value statistics: only a few points in the database matter and give the dominant contribution to the density estimator. We provide a detailed analysis for high-dimensional multivariate Gaussian data. We show that the optimal bandwidth threshold based on Kullback-Leibler divergence lies in the new statistical regime identified in this paper. Our findings reveal limitations of classical approaches, show the relevance of these new statistical regimes, and offer new insights for Kernel density estimation in high-dimensional settings.

The infinitely wide neural network has been proven a useful and manageable mathematical model that enables the understanding of many phenomena appearing in deep learning. One example is the convergence of random deep networks to Gaussian processes that allows a rigorous analysis of the way the choice of activation function and network weights impacts the training dynamics. In this paper, we extend the seminal proof of Matthews et al. (2018) to a larger class of initial weight distributions (which we call PSEUDO-IID), including the established cases of IID and orthogonal weights, as well as the emerging low-rank and structured sparse settings celebrated for their computational speed-up benefits. We show that fully-connected and convolutional networks initialized with PSEUDO-IID distributions are all effectively equivalent up to their variance. Using our results, one can identify the Edge-of-Chaos for a broader class of neural networks and tune them at criticality in order to enhance their training. Moreover, they enable the posterior distribution of Bayesian Neural Networks to be tractable across these various initialization schemes.

Applying diffusion models in reinforcement learning for long-term planning has gained much attention recently. Several diffusion-based methods have successfully leveraged the modeling capabilities of diffusion for arbitrary distributions. These methods generate subsequent trajectories for planning and have demonstrated significant improvement. However, these methods are limited by their plain base distributions and their overlooking of the diversity of samples, in which different states have different returns. They simply leverage diffusion to learn the distribution of offline dataset, generate the trajectories whose states share the same distribution with the offline dataset. As a result, the probability of these models reaching the high-return states is largely dependent on the dataset distribution. Even equipped with the guidance model, the performance is still suppressed. To address these limitations, in this paper, we propose a novel method called CDiffuser, which devises a return contrast mechanism to pull the states in generated trajectories towards high-return states while pushing them away from low-return states to improve the base distribution. Experiments on 14 commonly used D4RL benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

We propose a new approach for propagating stable probability distributions through neural networks. Our method is based on local linearization, which we show to be an optimal approximation in terms of total variation distance for the ReLU non-linearity. This allows propagating Gaussian and Cauchy input uncertainties through neural networks to quantify their output uncertainties. To demonstrate the utility of propagating distributions, we apply the proposed method to predicting calibrated confidence intervals and selective prediction on out-of-distribution data. The results demonstrate a broad applicability of propagating distributions and show the advantages of our method over other approaches such as moment matching.

As data becomes the fuel driving technological and economic growth, a fundamental challenge is how to quantify the value of data in algorithmic predictions and decisions. For example, in healthcare and consumer markets, it has been suggested that individuals should be compensated for the data that they generate, but it is not clear what is an equitable valuation for individual data. In this work, we develop a principled framework to address data valuation in the context of supervised machine learning. Given a learning algorithm trained on n data points to produce a predictor, we propose data Shapley as a metric to quantify the value of each training datum to the predictor performance. Data Shapley value uniquely satisfies several natural properties of equitable data valuation. We develop Monte Carlo and gradient-based methods to efficiently estimate data Shapley values in practical settings where complex learning algorithms, including neural networks, are trained on large datasets. In addition to being equitable, extensive experiments across biomedical, image and synthetic data demonstrate that data Shapley has several other benefits: 1) it is more powerful than the popular leave-one-out or leverage score in providing insight on what data is more valuable for a given learning task; 2) low Shapley value data effectively capture outliers and corruptions; 3) high Shapley value data inform what type of new data to acquire to improve the predictor.

Learning to denoise has emerged as a prominent paradigm to design state-of-the-art deep generative models for natural images. How to use it to model the distributions of both continuous real-valued data and categorical data has been well studied in recently proposed diffusion models. However, it is found in this paper to have limited ability in modeling some other types of data, such as count and non-negative continuous data, that are often highly sparse, skewed, heavy-tailed, and/or overdispersed. To this end, we propose learning to jump as a general recipe for generative modeling of various types of data. Using a forward count thinning process to construct learning objectives to train a deep neural network, it employs a reverse count thickening process to iteratively refine its generation through that network. We demonstrate when learning to jump is expected to perform comparably to learning to denoise, and when it is expected to perform better. For example, learning to jump is recommended when the training data is non-negative and exhibits strong sparsity, skewness, heavy-tailedness, and/or heterogeneity.

Value-based methods constitute a fundamental methodology in planning and deep reinforcement learning (RL). In this paper, we propose to exploit the underlying structures of the state-action value function, i.e., Q function, for both planning and deep RL. In particular, if the underlying system dynamics lead to some global structures of the Q function, one should be capable of inferring the function better by leveraging such structures. Specifically, we investigate the low-rank structure, which widely exists for big data matrices. We verify empirically the existence of low-rank Q functions in the context of control and deep RL tasks. As our key contribution, by leveraging Matrix Estimation (ME) techniques, we propose a general framework to exploit the underlying low-rank structure in Q functions. This leads to a more efficient planning procedure for classical control, and additionally, a simple scheme that can be applied to any value-based RL techniques to consistently achieve better performance on "low-rank" tasks. Extensive experiments on control tasks and Atari games confirm the efficacy of our approach. Code is available at https://github.com/YyzHarry/SV-RL.

Reinforcement learning (RL) allows an agent interacting sequentially with an environment to maximize its long-term expected return. In the distributional RL (DistrRL) paradigm, the agent goes beyond the limit of the expected value, to capture the underlying probability distribution of the return across all time steps. The set of DistrRL algorithms has led to improved empirical performance. Nevertheless, the theory of DistrRL is still not fully understood, especially in the control case. In this paper, we present the simpler one-step distributional reinforcement learning (OS-DistrRL) framework encompassing only the randomness induced by the one-step dynamics of the environment. Contrary to DistrRL, we show that our approach comes with a unified theory for both policy evaluation and control. Indeed, we propose two OS-DistrRL algorithms for which we provide an almost sure convergence analysis. The proposed approach compares favorably with categorical DistrRL on various environments.

While previous distribution shift detection approaches can identify if a shift has occurred, these approaches cannot localize which specific features have caused a distribution shift -- a critical step in diagnosing or fixing any underlying issue. For example, in military sensor networks, users will want to detect when one or more of the sensors has been compromised, and critically, they will want to know which specific sensors might be compromised. Thus, we first define a formalization of this problem as multiple conditional distribution hypothesis tests and propose both non-parametric and parametric statistical tests. For both efficiency and flexibility, we then propose to use a test statistic based on the density model score function (i.e. gradient with respect to the input) -- which can easily compute test statistics for all dimensions in a single forward and backward pass. Any density model could be used for computing the necessary statistics including deep density models such as normalizing flows or autoregressive models. We additionally develop methods for identifying when and where a shift occurs in multivariate time-series data and show results for multiple scenarios using realistic attack models on both simulated and real world data.

The prevalence and importance of algorithmic two-sided marketplaces has drawn attention to the issue of fairness in such settings. Algorithmic decisions are used in assigning students to schools, users to advertisers, and applicants to job interviews. These decisions should heed the preferences of individuals, and simultaneously be fair with respect to their merits (synonymous with fit, future performance, or need). Merits conditioned on observable features are always uncertain, a fact that is exacerbated by the widespread use of machine learning algorithms to infer merit from the observables. As our key contribution, we carefully axiomatize a notion of individual fairness in the two-sided marketplace setting which respects the uncertainty in the merits; indeed, it simultaneously recognizes uncertainty as the primary potential cause of unfairness and an approach to address it. We design a linear programming framework to find fair utility-maximizing distributions over allocations, and we show that the linear program is robust to perturbations in the estimated parameters of the uncertain merit distributions, a key property in combining the approach with machine learning techniques.

There has been a lot of recent interest in designing neural network models to estimate a distribution from a set of examples. We introduce a simple modification for autoencoder neural networks that yields powerful generative models. Our method masks the autoencoder's parameters to respect autoregressive constraints: each input is reconstructed only from previous inputs in a given ordering. Constrained this way, the autoencoder outputs can be interpreted as a set of conditional probabilities, and their product, the full joint probability. We can also train a single network that can decompose the joint probability in multiple different orderings. Our simple framework can be applied to multiple architectures, including deep ones. Vectorized implementations, such as on GPUs, are simple and fast. Experiments demonstrate that this approach is competitive with state-of-the-art tractable distribution estimators. At test time, the method is significantly faster and scales better than other autoregressive estimators.

Markov categories are a recent categorical approach to the mathematical foundations of probability and statistics. Here, this approach is advanced by stating and proving equivalent conditions for second-order stochastic dominance, a widely used way of comparing probability distributions by their spread. Furthermore, we lay foundation for the theory of comparing statistical experiments within Markov categories by stating and proving the classical Blackwell-Sherman-Stein Theorem. Our version not only offers new insight into the proof, but its abstract nature also makes the result more general, automatically specializing to the standard Blackwell-Sherman-Stein Theorem in measure-theoretic probability as well as a Bayesian version that involves prior-dependent garbling. Along the way, we define and characterize representable Markov categories, within which one can talk about Markov kernels to or from spaces of distributions. We do so by exploring the relation between Markov categories and Kleisli categories of probability monads.

In the past couple of years, various approaches to representing and quantifying different types of predictive uncertainty in machine learning, notably in the setting of classification, have been proposed on the basis of second-order probability distributions, i.e., predictions in the form of distributions on probability distributions. A completely conclusive solution has not yet been found, however, as shown by recent criticisms of commonly used uncertainty measures associated with second-order distributions, identifying undesirable theoretical properties of these measures. In light of these criticisms, we propose a set of formal criteria that meaningful uncertainty measures for predictive uncertainty based on second-order distributions should obey. Moreover, we provide a general framework for developing uncertainty measures to account for these criteria, and offer an instantiation based on the Wasserstein distance, for which we prove that all criteria are satisfied.