Daily Papers

The growing carbon footprint of artificial intelligence (AI) has been undergoing public scrutiny. Nonetheless, the equally important water (withdrawal and consumption) footprint of AI has largely remained under the radar. For example, training the GPT-3 language model in Microsoft's state-of-the-art U.S. data centers can directly evaporate 700,000 liters of clean freshwater, but such information has been kept a secret. More critically, the global AI demand is projected to account for 4.2-6.6 billion cubic meters of water withdrawal in 2027, which is more than the total annual water withdrawal of 4-6 Denmark or half of the United Kingdom. This is concerning, as freshwater scarcity has become one of the most pressing challenges. To respond to the global water challenges, AI can, and also must, take social responsibility and lead by example by addressing its own water footprint. In this paper, we provide a principled methodology to estimate the water footprint of AI, and also discuss the unique spatial-temporal diversities of AI's runtime water efficiency. Finally, we highlight the necessity of holistically addressing water footprint along with carbon footprint to enable truly sustainable AI.

Accurate spatiotemporal pattern analysis is critical in fields such as urban traffic, meteorology, and public health monitoring. However, existing methods face performance bottlenecks, typically yielding only incremental gains and often exhibiting limited cross-domain transferability. We analyze this bottleneck through spatial and temporal entropy measures, which are used as diagnostic indicators of spatiotemporal complexity mismatch rather than as guarantees that entropy alignment alone yields better forecasting. Empirically, larger mismatch is often accompanied by higher prediction uncertainty, especially under a fixed model-capacity budget. Guided by this diagnostic, we propose a scalable, adaptive framework that harmonizes spatial and temporal feature representations. Spatial dimensionality is compressed via low-rank matrix embedding to preserve essential structure, while an extended temporal horizon captures long-range dependencies and mitigates cumulative errors arising from temporal heterogeneity. Extensive experiments on urban traffic, meteorological, and epidemic datasets demonstrate substantial accuracy gains and broad applicability across the evaluated domains, suggesting that the framework is promising for a wide range of spatiotemporal tasks beyond the current study. The code is available on GitHub at https://github.com/ST-Balance/ST-Balance.

As deep learning technology advances and more urban spatial-temporal data accumulates, an increasing number of deep learning models are being proposed to solve urban spatial-temporal prediction problems. However, there are limitations in the existing field, including open-source data being in various formats and difficult to use, few papers making their code and data openly available, and open-source models often using different frameworks and platforms, making comparisons challenging. A standardized framework is urgently needed to implement and evaluate these methods. To address these issues, we propose LibCity, an open-source library that offers researchers a credible experimental tool and a convenient development framework. In this library, we have reproduced 65 spatial-temporal prediction models and collected 55 spatial-temporal datasets, allowing researchers to conduct comprehensive experiments conveniently. By enabling fair model comparisons, designing a unified data storage format, and simplifying the process of developing new models, LibCity is poised to make significant contributions to the spatial-temporal prediction field.

The spatio-temporal relations of impacts of extreme events and their drivers in climate data are not fully understood and there is a need of machine learning approaches to identify such spatio-temporal relations from data. The task, however, is very challenging since there are time delays between extremes and their drivers, and the spatial response of such drivers is inhomogeneous. In this work, we propose a first approach and benchmarks to tackle this challenge. Our approach is trained end-to-end to predict spatio-temporally extremes and spatio-temporally drivers in the physical input variables jointly. By enforcing the network to predict extremes from spatio-temporal binary masks of identified drivers, the network successfully identifies drivers that are correlated with extremes. We evaluate our approach on three newly created synthetic benchmarks, where two of them are based on remote sensing or reanalysis climate data, and on two real-world reanalysis datasets. The source code and datasets are publicly available at the project page https://hakamshams.github.io/IDE.

Text-to-image (T2I) models are rapidly gaining popularity, yet their outputs often lack geographical diversity, reinforce stereotypes, and misrepresent regions. Given their broad reach, it is critical to rigorously evaluate how these models portray the world. Existing diversity metrics either rely on curated datasets or focus on surface-level visual similarity, limiting interpretability. We introduce GeoDiv, a framework leveraging large language and vision-language models to assess geographical diversity along two complementary axes: the Socio-Economic Visual Index (SEVI), capturing economic and condition-related cues, and the Visual Diversity Index (VDI), measuring variation in primary entities and backgrounds. Applied to images generated by models such as Stable Diffusion and FLUX.1-dev across 10 entities and 16 countries, GeoDiv reveals a consistent lack of diversity and identifies fine-grained attributes where models default to biased portrayals. Strikingly, depictions of countries like India, Nigeria, and Colombia are disproportionately impoverished and worn, reflecting underlying socio-economic biases. These results highlight the need for greater geographical nuance in generative models. GeoDiv provides the first systematic, interpretable framework for measuring such biases, marking a step toward fairer and more inclusive generative systems. Project page: https://abhipsabasu.github.io/geodiv

Analyzing both temporal and spatial patterns for an accurate forecasting model for financial time series forecasting is a challenge due to the complex nature of temporal-spatial dynamics: time series from different locations often have distinct patterns; and for the same time series, patterns may vary as time goes by. Inspired by the successful applications of deep learning, we propose a new model to resolve the issues of forecasting household leverage in China. Our solution consists of multiple RNN-based layers and an attention layer: each RNN-based layer automatically learns the temporal pattern of a specific series with multivariate exogenous series, and then the attention layer learns the spatial correlative weight and obtains the global representations simultaneously. The results show that the new approach can capture the temporal-spatial dynamics of household leverage well and get more accurate and solid predictive results. More, the simulation also studies show that clustering and choosing correlative series are necessary to obtain accurate forecasting results.

The capabilities of large language models (LLMs) have sparked debate over whether such systems just learn an enormous collection of superficial statistics or a coherent model of the data generating process -- a world model. We find evidence for the latter by analyzing the learned representations of three spatial datasets (world, US, NYC places) and three temporal datasets (historical figures, artworks, news headlines) in the Llama-2 family of models. We discover that LLMs learn linear representations of space and time across multiple scales. These representations are robust to prompting variations and unified across different entity types (e.g. cities and landmarks). In addition, we identify individual ``space neurons'' and ``time neurons'' that reliably encode spatial and temporal coordinates. Our analysis demonstrates that modern LLMs acquire structured knowledge about fundamental dimensions such as space and time, supporting the view that they learn not merely superficial statistics, but literal world models.

Spatio-temporal forecasting is essential for real-world applications such as traffic management and urban computing. Although recent methods have shown improved accuracy, they often fail to account for dynamic deviations between current inputs and historical patterns. These deviations contain critical signals that can significantly affect model performance. To fill this gap, we propose ST-SSDL, a Spatio-Temporal time series forecasting framework that incorporates a Self-Supervised Deviation Learning scheme to capture and utilize such deviations. ST-SSDL anchors each input to its historical average and discretizes the latent space using learnable prototypes that represent typical spatio-temporal patterns. Two auxiliary objectives are proposed to refine this structure: a contrastive loss that enhances inter-prototype discriminability and a deviation loss that regularizes the distance consistency between input representations and corresponding prototypes to quantify deviation. Optimized jointly with the forecasting objective, these components guide the model to organize its hidden space and improve generalization across diverse input conditions. Experiments on six benchmark datasets show that ST-SSDL consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across multiple metrics. Visualizations further demonstrate its ability to adaptively respond to varying levels of deviation in complex spatio-temporal scenarios. Our code and datasets are available at https://github.com/Jimmy-7664/ST-SSDL.

Finding multiple temporal relationships among locations can benefit a bunch of urban applications, such as dynamic offline advertising and smart public transport planning. While some efforts have been made on finding static relationships among locations, little attention is focused on studying time-aware location relationships. Indeed, abundant location-based human activities are time-varying and the availability of these data enables a new paradigm for understanding the dynamic relationships in a period among connective locations. To this end, we propose to study a new problem, namely multi-Temporal relationship inference among locations (Trial for short), where the major challenge is how to integrate dynamic and geographical influence under the relationship sparsity constraint. Specifically, we propose a solution to Trial with a graph learning scheme, which includes a spatially evolving graph neural network (SEENet) with two collaborative components: spatially evolving graph convolution module (SEConv) and spatially evolving self-supervised learning strategy (SE-SSL). SEConv performs the intra-time aggregation and inter-time propagation to capture the multifaceted spatially evolving contexts from the view of location message passing. In addition, SE-SSL designs time-aware self-supervised learning tasks in a global-local manner with additional evolving constraint to enhance the location representation learning and further handle the relationship sparsity. Finally, experiments on four real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our method over several state-of-the-art approaches.

Biodiversity assessments are critically affected by the spatial scale at which species richness is measured. How species richness accumulates with sampling area depends on natural and anthropogenic processes whose effects can change depending on the spatial scale considered. These accumulation dynamics, described by the species-area relationship (SAR), are challenging to assess because most biodiversity surveys are restricted to sampling areas much smaller than the scales at which these processes operate. Here, we combine sampling theory and deep learning to predict local species richness within arbitrarily large sampling areas, enabling for the first time to estimate spatial differences in SARs. We demonstrate our approach by predicting vascular plant species richness across Europe and evaluate predictions against an independent dataset of plant community inventories. The resulting model, named deep SAR, delivers multi-scale species richness maps, improving coarse grain richness estimates by 32% compared to conventional methods, while delivering finer grain estimates. Additional to its predictive capabilities, we show how our deep SAR model can provide fundamental insights on the multi-scale effects of key biodiversity processes. The capacity of our approach to deliver comprehensive species richness estimates across the full spectrum of ecologically relevant scales is essential for robust biodiversity assessments and forecasts under global change.

Many social and environmental phenomena are associated with macroscopic changes in the built environment, captured by satellite imagery on a global scale and with daily temporal resolution. While widely used for prediction, these images and especially image sequences remain underutilized for causal inference, especially in the context of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), where causal identification is established by design. In this paper, we develop and compare a set of general tools for analyzing Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) from temporal satellite data that can be applied to any RCT where geographical identifiers are available. Through a simulation study, we analyze different modeling strategies for estimating CATE in sequences of satellite images. We find that image sequence representation models with more parameters generally yield a greater ability to detect heterogeneity. To explore the role of model and data choice in practice, we apply the approaches to two influential RCTs -- Banerjee et al. (2015), a poverty study in Cusco, Peru, and Bolsen et al. (2014), a water conservation experiment in Georgia, USA. We benchmark our image sequence models against image-only, tabular-only, and combined image-tabular data sources, summarizing practical implications for investigators in a multivariate analysis. Land cover classifications over satellite images facilitate interpretation of what image features drive heterogeneity. We also show robustness to data and model choice of satellite-based generalization of the RCT results to larger geographical areas outside the original. Overall, this paper shows how satellite sequence data can be incorporated into the analysis of RCTs, and provides evidence about the implications of data, model, and evaluation metric choice for causal analysis.

Spatio-temporal predictive learning is a learning paradigm that enables models to learn spatial and temporal patterns by predicting future frames from given past frames in an unsupervised manner. Despite remarkable progress in recent years, a lack of systematic understanding persists due to the diverse settings, complex implementation, and difficult reproducibility. Without standardization, comparisons can be unfair and insights inconclusive. To address this dilemma, we propose OpenSTL, a comprehensive benchmark for spatio-temporal predictive learning that categorizes prevalent approaches into recurrent-based and recurrent-free models. OpenSTL provides a modular and extensible framework implementing various state-of-the-art methods. We conduct standard evaluations on datasets across various domains, including synthetic moving object trajectory, human motion, driving scenes, traffic flow and weather forecasting. Based on our observations, we provide a detailed analysis of how model architecture and dataset properties affect spatio-temporal predictive learning performance. Surprisingly, we find that recurrent-free models achieve a good balance between efficiency and performance than recurrent models. Thus, we further extend the common MetaFormers to boost recurrent-free spatial-temporal predictive learning. We open-source the code and models at https://github.com/chengtan9907/OpenSTL.

One of the primary objectives of satellite remote sensing is to capture the complex dynamics of the Earth environment, which encompasses tasks such as reconstructing continuous cloud-free time series images, detecting land cover changes, and forecasting future surface evolution. However, existing methods typically require specialized models tailored to different tasks, lacking unified modeling of spatiotemporal features across multiple time series tasks. In this paper, we propose a Unified Time Series Generative Model (UniTS), a general framework applicable to various time series tasks, including time series reconstruction, time series cloud removal, time series semantic change detection, and time series forecasting. Based on the flow matching generative paradigm, UniTS constructs a deterministic evolution path from noise to targets under the guidance of task-specific conditions, achieving unified modeling of spatiotemporal representations for multiple tasks. The UniTS architecture consists of a diffusion transformer with spatio-temporal blocks, where we design an Adaptive Condition Injector (ACor) to enhance the model's conditional perception of multimodal inputs, enabling high-quality controllable generation. Additionally, we design a Spatiotemporal-aware Modulator (STM) to improve the ability of spatio-temporal blocks to capture complex spatiotemporal dependencies. Furthermore, we construct two high-quality multimodal time series datasets, TS-S12 and TS-S12CR, filling the gap of benchmark datasets for time series cloud removal and forecasting tasks. Extensive experiments demonstrate that UniTS exhibits exceptional generative and cognitive capabilities in both low-level and high-level time series tasks. It significantly outperforms existing methods, particularly when facing challenges such as severe cloud contamination, modality absence, and forecasting phenological variations.

We propose a new class of parameterizations for spatio-temporal point processes which leverage Neural ODEs as a computational method and enable flexible, high-fidelity models of discrete events that are localized in continuous time and space. Central to our approach is a combination of continuous-time neural networks with two novel neural architectures, i.e., Jump and Attentive Continuous-time Normalizing Flows. This approach allows us to learn complex distributions for both the spatial and temporal domain and to condition non-trivially on the observed event history. We validate our models on data sets from a wide variety of contexts such as seismology, epidemiology, urban mobility, and neuroscience.

Incorporating spatial information, particularly those influenced by climate, weather, and demographic factors, is crucial for improving underwriting precision and enhancing risk management in insurance. However, spatial data are often unstructured, high-dimensional, and difficult to integrate into predictive models. Embedding methods are needed to convert spatial data into meaningful representations for modelling tasks. We propose a novel multi-view contrastive learning framework for generating spatial embeddings that combine information from multiple spatial data sources. To train the model, we construct a spatial dataset that merges satellite imagery and OpenStreetMap features across Europe. The framework aligns these spatial views with coordinate-based encodings, producing low-dimensional embeddings that capture both spatial structure and contextual similarity. Once trained, the model generates embeddings directly from latitude-longitude pairs, enabling any dataset with coordinates to be enriched with meaningful spatial features without requiring access to the original spatial inputs. In a case study on French real estate prices, we compare models trained on raw coordinates against those using our spatial embeddings as inputs. The embeddings consistently improve predictive accuracy across generalised linear, additive, and boosting models, while providing interpretable spatial effects and demonstrating transferability to unseen regions.

Spatial confounding poses a significant challenge in scientific studies involving spatial data, where unobserved spatial variables can influence both treatment and outcome, possibly leading to spurious associations. To address this problem, we introduce SpaCE: The Spatial Confounding Environment, the first toolkit to provide realistic benchmark datasets and tools for systematically evaluating causal inference methods designed to alleviate spatial confounding. Each dataset includes training data, true counterfactuals, a spatial graph with coordinates, and smoothness and confounding scores characterizing the effect of a missing spatial confounder. It also includes realistic semi-synthetic outcomes and counterfactuals, generated using state-of-the-art machine learning ensembles, following best practices for causal inference benchmarks. The datasets cover real treatment and covariates from diverse domains, including climate, health and social sciences. SpaCE facilitates an automated end-to-end pipeline, simplifying data loading, experimental setup, and evaluating machine learning and causal inference models. The SpaCE project provides several dozens of datasets of diverse sizes and spatial complexity. It is publicly available as a Python package, encouraging community feedback and contributions.

Humans perceive and understand real-world spaces through a stream of visual observations. Therefore, the ability to streamingly maintain and update spatial evidence from potentially unbounded video streams is essential for spatial intelligence. The core challenge is not simply longer context windows but how spatial information is selected, organized, and retained over time. In this paper, we propose Spatial-TTT towards streaming visual-based spatial intelligence with test-time training (TTT), which adapts a subset of parameters (fast weights) to capture and organize spatial evidence over long-horizon scene videos. Specifically, we design a hybrid architecture and adopt large-chunk updates parallel with sliding-window attention for efficient spatial video processing. To further promote spatial awareness, we introduce a spatial-predictive mechanism applied to TTT layers with 3D spatiotemporal convolution, which encourages the model to capture geometric correspondence and temporal continuity across frames. Beyond architecture design, we construct a dataset with dense 3D spatial descriptions, which guides the model to update its fast weights to memorize and organize global 3D spatial signals in a structured manner. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Spatial-TTT improves long-horizon spatial understanding and achieves state-of-the-art performance on video spatial benchmarks. Project page: https://liuff19.github.io/Spatial-TTT.

Geo-temporal understanding, the ability to infer location, time, and contextual properties from visual input alone, underpins applications such as disaster management, traffic planning, embodied navigation, world modeling, and geography education. Although recent vision-language models (VLMs) have advanced image geo-localization using cues like landmarks and road signs, their ability to reason about temporal signals and physically grounded spatial cues remains limited. To address this gap, we introduce TimeSpot, a benchmark for evaluating real-world geo-temporal reasoning in VLMs. TimeSpot comprises 1,455 ground-level images from 80 countries and requires structured prediction of temporal attributes (season, month, time of day, daylight phase) and geographic attributes (continent, country, climate zone, environment type, latitude-longitude) directly from visual evidence. It also includes spatial-temporal reasoning tasks that test physical plausibility under real-world uncertainty. Evaluations of state-of-the-art open- and closed-source VLMs show low performance, particularly for temporal inference. While supervised fine-tuning yields improvements, results remain insufficient, highlighting the need for new methods to achieve robust, physically grounded geo-temporal understanding. TimeSpot is available at: https://TimeSpot-GT.github.io.

New geospatial foundation models introduce a new model architecture and pretraining dataset, often sampled using different notions of data diversity. Performance differences are largely attributed to the model architecture or input modalities, while the role of the pretraining dataset is rarely studied. To address this research gap, we conducted a systematic study on how the geographic composition of pretraining data affects a model's downstream performance. We created global and per-continent pretraining datasets and evaluated them on global and per-continent downstream datasets. We found that the pretraining dataset from Europe outperformed global and continent-specific pretraining datasets on both global and local downstream evaluations. To investigate the factors influencing a pretraining dataset's downstream performance, we analysed 10 pretraining datasets using diversity across continents, biomes, landcover and spectral values. We found that only spectral diversity was strongly correlated with performance, while others were weakly correlated. This finding establishes a new dimension of diversity to be accounted for when creating a high-performing pretraining dataset. We open-sourced 7 new pretraining datasets, pretrained models, and our experimental framework at https://github.com/kerner-lab/pretrain-where.

The ever-increasing sensor service, though opening a precious path and providing a deluge of earth system data for deep-learning-oriented earth science, sadly introduce a daunting obstacle to their industrial level deployment. Concretely, earth science systems rely heavily on the extensive deployment of sensors, however, the data collection from sensors is constrained by complex geographical and social factors, making it challenging to achieve comprehensive coverage and uniform deployment. To alleviate the obstacle, traditional approaches to sensor deployment utilize specific algorithms to design and deploy sensors. These methods dynamically adjust the activation times of sensors to optimize the detection process across each sub-region. Regrettably, formulating an activation strategy generally based on historical observations and geographic characteristics, which make the methods and resultant models were neither simple nor practical. Worse still, the complex technical design may ultimately lead to a model with weak generalizability. In this paper, we introduce for the first time the concept of spatio-temporal data dynamic sparse training and are committed to adaptively, dynamically filtering important sensor distributions. To our knowledge, this is the first proposal (termed DynST) of an industry-level deployment optimization concept at the data level. However, due to the existence of the temporal dimension, pruning of spatio-temporal data may lead to conflicts at different timestamps. To achieve this goal, we employ dynamic merge technology, along with ingenious dimensional mapping to mitigate potential impacts caused by the temporal aspect. During the training process, DynST utilize iterative pruning and sparse training, repeatedly identifying and dynamically removing sensor perception areas that contribute the least to future predictions.

Urban traffic flow is governed by the complex, nonlinear interaction between land use configuration and spatiotemporally heterogeneous mobility demand. Conventional global regression and time-series models cannot simultaneously capture these multi-scale dynamics across multiple travel modes. This study proposes a GeoAI Hybrid analytical framework that sequentially integrates Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR), Random Forest (RF), and Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks (ST-GCN) to model the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of traffic flow patterns and their interaction with land use across three mobility modes: motor vehicle, public transit, and active transport. Applying the framework to an empirically calibrated dataset of 350 traffic analysis zones across six cities spanning two contrasting urban morphologies, four key findings emerge: (i) the GeoAI Hybrid achieves a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.119 and an R^2 of 0.891, outperforming all benchmarks by 23-62%; (ii) SHAP analysis identifies land use mix as the strongest predictor for motor vehicle flows and transit stop density as the strongest predictor for public transit; (iii) DBSCAN clustering identifies five functionally distinct urban traffic typologies with a silhouette score of 0.71, and GeoAI Hybrid residuals exhibit Moran's I=0.218 (p<0.001), a 72% reduction relative to OLS baselines; and (iv) cross-city transfer experiments reveal moderate within-cluster transferability (R^2>=0.78) and limited cross-cluster generalisability, underscoring the primacy of urban morphological context. The framework offers planners and transportation engineers an interpretable, scalable toolkit for evidence-based multimodal mobility management and land use policy design.

Building world models that accurately and comprehensively represent the real world is the utmost aspiration for conditional image generative models as it would enable their use as world simulators. For these models to be successful world models, they should not only excel at image quality and prompt-image consistency but also ensure high representation diversity. However, current research in generative models mostly focuses on creative applications that are predominantly concerned with human preferences of image quality and aesthetics. We note that generative models have inference time mechanisms - or knobs - that allow the control of generation consistency, quality, and diversity. In this paper, we use state-of-the-art text-to-image and image-and-text-to-image models and their knobs to draw consistency-diversity-realism Pareto fronts that provide a holistic view on consistency-diversity-realism multi-objective. Our experiments suggest that realism and consistency can both be improved simultaneously; however there exists a clear tradeoff between realism/consistency and diversity. By looking at Pareto optimal points, we note that earlier models are better at representation diversity and worse in consistency/realism, and more recent models excel in consistency/realism while decreasing significantly the representation diversity. By computing Pareto fronts on a geodiverse dataset, we find that the first version of latent diffusion models tends to perform better than more recent models in all axes of evaluation, and there exist pronounced consistency-diversity-realism disparities between geographical regions. Overall, our analysis clearly shows that there is no best model and the choice of model should be determined by the downstream application. With this analysis, we invite the research community to consider Pareto fronts as an analytical tool to measure progress towards world models.

Temporal knowledge graphs represent temporal facts (s,p,o,tau) relating a subject s and an object o via a relation label p at time tau, where tau could be a time point or time interval. Temporal knowledge graphs may exhibit static temporal patterns at distinct points in time and dynamic temporal patterns between different timestamps. In order to learn a rich set of static and dynamic temporal patterns and apply them for inference, several embedding approaches have been suggested in the literature. However, as most of them resort to single underlying embedding spaces, their capability to model all kinds of temporal patterns was severely limited by having to adhere to the geometric property of their one embedding space. We lift this limitation by an embedding approach that maps temporal facts into a product space of several heterogeneous geometric subspaces with distinct geometric properties, i.e.\ Complex, Dual, and Split-complex spaces. In addition, we propose a temporal-geometric attention mechanism to integrate information from different geometric subspaces conveniently according to the captured relational and temporal information. Experimental results on standard temporal benchmark datasets favorably evaluate our approach against state-of-the-art models.

Spatiotemporal forecasting techniques are significant for various domains such as transportation, energy, and weather. Accurate prediction of spatiotemporal series remains challenging due to the complex spatiotemporal heterogeneity. In particular, current end-to-end models are limited by input length and thus often fall into spatiotemporal mirage, i.e., similar input time series followed by dissimilar future values and vice versa. To address these problems, we propose a novel self-supervised pre-training framework Spatial-Temporal-Decoupled Masked Pre-training (STD-MAE) that employs two decoupled masked autoencoders to reconstruct spatiotemporal series along the spatial and temporal dimensions. Rich-context representations learned through such reconstruction could be seamlessly integrated by downstream predictors with arbitrary architectures to augment their performances. A series of quantitative and qualitative evaluations on six widely used benchmarks (PEMS03, PEMS04, PEMS07, PEMS08, METR-LA, and PEMS-BAY) are conducted to validate the state-of-the-art performance of STD-MAE. Codes are available at https://github.com/Jimmy-7664/STD-MAE.

Generative models have the potential to transform the way we emulate Earth's changing climate. Previous generative approaches rely on weather-scale autoregression for climate emulation, but this is inherently slow for long climate horizons and has yet to demonstrate stable rollouts under nonstationary forcings. Here, we introduce Spatiotemporal Pyramid Flows (SPF), a new class of flow matching approaches that model data hierarchically across spatial and temporal scales. Inspired by cascaded video models, SPF partitions the generative trajectory into a spatiotemporal pyramid, progressively increasing spatial resolution to reduce computation and coupling each stage with an associated timescale to enable direct sampling at any temporal level in the pyramid. This design, together with conditioning each stage on prescribed physical forcings (e.g., greenhouse gases or aerosols), enables efficient, parallel climate emulation at multiple timescales. On ClimateBench, SPF outperforms strong flow matching baselines and pre-trained models at yearly and monthly timescales while offering fast sampling, especially at coarser temporal levels. To scale SPF, we curate ClimateSuite, the largest collection of Earth system simulations to date, comprising over 33,000 simulation-years across ten climate models and the first dataset to include simulations of climate interventions. We find that the scaled SPF model demonstrates good generalization to held-out scenarios across climate models. Together, SPF and ClimateSuite provide a foundation for accurate, efficient, probabilistic climate emulation across temporal scales and realistic future scenarios. Data and code is publicly available at https://github.com/stanfordmlgroup/spf .

The emergence and impact of tipping points have garnered significant interest in both the social and natural sciences. Despite widespread recognition of the importance of feedbacks between human and natural systems, it is often assumed that the observed nonlinear dynamics in these coupled systems rests within either underlying human or natural processes, rather than the rates at which they interact. Using adoption of agricultural diversification practices as a case study, we show how two stable management paradigms (one dominated by conventional, homogeneous practices, the other by diversified practices) can emerge purely from temporal feedbacks between human decisions and ecological responses. We explore how this temporal mechanism of tipping points provides insight into designing more effective interventions that promote farmers transitions towards sustainable agriculture. Moreover, our flexible modeling framework could be applied to other cases to provide insight into numerous questions in social-ecological systems research and environmental policy.

The rapid evolution of large language models (LLMs) holds promise for reforming the methodology of spatio-temporal data mining. However, current works for evaluating the spatio-temporal understanding capability of LLMs are somewhat limited and biased. These works either fail to incorporate the latest language models or only focus on assessing the memorized spatio-temporal knowledge. To address this gap, this paper dissects LLMs' capability of spatio-temporal data into four distinct dimensions: knowledge comprehension, spatio-temporal reasoning, accurate computation, and downstream applications. We curate several natural language question-answer tasks for each category and build the benchmark dataset, namely STBench, containing 13 distinct tasks and over 60,000 QA pairs. Moreover, we have assessed the capabilities of 13 LLMs, such as GPT-4o, Gemma and Mistral. Experimental results reveal that existing LLMs show remarkable performance on knowledge comprehension and spatio-temporal reasoning tasks, with potential for further enhancement on other tasks through in-context learning, chain-of-though prompting, and fine-tuning. The code and datasets of STBench are released on https://github.com/LwbXc/STBench.

Spatio-temporal prediction is a pivotal task with broad applications in traffic management, climate monitoring, energy scheduling, etc. However, existing methodologies often struggle to balance model expressiveness and computational efficiency, especially when scaling to large real-world datasets. To tackle these challenges, we propose STH-SepNet (Spatio-Temporal Hypergraph Separation Networks), a novel framework that decouples temporal and spatial modeling to enhance both efficiency and precision. Therein, the temporal dimension is modeled using lightweight large language models, which effectively capture low-rank temporal dynamics. Concurrently, the spatial dimension is addressed through an adaptive hypergraph neural network, which dynamically constructs hyperedges to model intricate, higher-order interactions. A carefully designed gating mechanism is integrated to seamlessly fuse temporal and spatial representations. By leveraging the fundamental principles of low-rank temporal dynamics and spatial interactions, STH-SepNet offers a pragmatic and scalable solution for spatio-temporal prediction in real-world applications. Extensive experiments on large-scale real-world datasets across multiple benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of STH-SepNet in boosting predictive performance while maintaining computational efficiency. This work may provide a promising lightweight framework for spatio-temporal prediction, aiming to reduce computational demands and while enhancing predictive performance. Our code is avaliable at https://github.com/SEU-WENJIA/ST-SepNet-Lightweight-LLMs-Meet-Adaptive-Hypergraphs.

The difficulty of monitoring biodiversity at fine scales and over large areas limits ecological knowledge and conservation efforts. To fill this gap, Species Distribution Models (SDMs) predict species across space from spatially explicit features. Yet, they face the challenge of integrating the rich but heterogeneous data made available over the past decade, notably millions of opportunistic species observations and standardized surveys, as well as multi-modal remote sensing data. In light of that, we have designed and developed a new European-scale dataset for SDMs at high spatial resolution (10-50 m), including more than 10k species (i.e., most of the European flora). The dataset comprises 5M heterogeneous Presence-Only records and 90k exhaustive Presence-Absence survey records, all accompanied by diverse environmental rasters (e.g., elevation, human footprint, and soil) that are traditionally used in SDMs. In addition, it provides Sentinel-2 RGB and NIR satellite images with 10 m resolution, a 20-year time-series of climatic variables, and satellite time-series from the Landsat program. In addition to the data, we provide an openly accessible SDM benchmark (hosted on Kaggle), which has already attracted an active community and a set of strong baselines for single predictor/modality and multimodal approaches. All resources, e.g., the dataset, pre-trained models, and baseline methods (in the form of notebooks), are available on Kaggle, allowing one to start with our dataset literally with two mouse clicks.

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among predictor variables in a flexible data-driven manner and for accounting for spatio-temporal variation that is not explained by observable predictor variables. We also show how estimation and prediction can be done in a computationally efficient manner. In an application to a large U.S. mortgage credit risk data set, we find that both predictive default probabilities for individual loans and predictive loan portfolio loss distributions obtained with our novel approach are more accurate compared to conventional independent linear hazard models and also linear spatio-temporal models. Using interpretability tools for machine learning models, we find that the likely reasons for this outperformance are strong interaction and non-linear effects in the predictor variables and the presence of large spatio-temporal frailty effects.

User profiling and region analysis are two tasks of significant commercial value. However, in practical applications, modeling different features typically involves four main steps: data preparation, data processing, model establishment, evaluation, and optimization. This process is time-consuming and labor-intensive. Repeating this workflow for each feature results in abundant development time for tasks and a reduced overall volume of task development. Indeed, human mobility data contains a wealth of information. Several successful cases suggest that conducting in-depth analysis of population movement data could potentially yield meaningful profiles about users and areas. Nonetheless, most related works have not thoroughly utilized the semantic information within human mobility data and trained on a fixed number of the regions. To tap into the rich information within population movement, based on the perspective that Regions Are Who walk them, we propose a large spatiotemporal model based on trajectories (RAW). It possesses the following characteristics: 1) Tailored for trajectory data, introducing a GPT-like structure with a parameter count of up to 1B; 2) Introducing a spatiotemporal fine-tuning module, interpreting trajectories as collection of users to derive arbitrary region embedding. This framework allows rapid task development based on the large spatiotemporal model. We conducted extensive experiments to validate the effectiveness of our proposed large spatiotemporal model. It's evident that our proposed method, relying solely on human mobility data without additional features, exhibits a certain level of relevance in user profiling and region analysis. Moreover, our model showcases promising predictive capabilities in trajectory generation tasks based on the current state, offering the potential for further innovative work utilizing this large spatiotemporal model.

Multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting has shown great importance in numerous industries. Current state-of-the-art graph neural network (GNN)-based forecasting methods usually require both graph networks (e.g., GCN) and temporal networks (e.g., LSTM) to capture inter-series (spatial) dynamics and intra-series (temporal) dependencies, respectively. However, the uncertain compatibility of the two networks puts an extra burden on handcrafted model designs. Moreover, the separate spatial and temporal modeling naturally violates the unified spatiotemporal inter-dependencies in real world, which largely hinders the forecasting performance. To overcome these problems, we explore an interesting direction of directly applying graph networks and rethink MTS forecasting from a pure graph perspective. We first define a novel data structure, hypervariate graph, which regards each series value (regardless of variates or timestamps) as a graph node, and represents sliding windows as space-time fully-connected graphs. This perspective considers spatiotemporal dynamics unitedly and reformulates classic MTS forecasting into the predictions on hypervariate graphs. Then, we propose a novel architecture Fourier Graph Neural Network (FourierGNN) by stacking our proposed Fourier Graph Operator (FGO) to perform matrix multiplications in Fourier space. FourierGNN accommodates adequate expressiveness and achieves much lower complexity, which can effectively and efficiently accomplish the forecasting. Besides, our theoretical analysis reveals FGO's equivalence to graph convolutions in the time domain, which further verifies the validity of FourierGNN. Extensive experiments on seven datasets have demonstrated our superior performance with higher efficiency and fewer parameters compared with state-of-the-art methods.

Result diversification (RD) is a crucial technique in Text-to-Image Retrieval for enhancing the efficiency of a practical application. Conventional methods focus solely on increasing the diversity metric of image appearances. However, the diversity metric and its desired value vary depending on the application, which limits the applications of RD. This paper proposes a novel task called CDR-CA (Contextual Diversity Refinement of Composite Attributes). CDR-CA aims to refine the diversities of multiple attributes, according to the application's context. To address this task, we propose Multi-Source DPPs, a simple yet strong baseline that extends the Determinantal Point Process (DPP) to multi-sources. We model MS-DPP as a single DPP model with a unified similarity matrix based on a manifold representation. We also introduce Tangent Normalization to reflect contexts. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/NEC-N-SOGI/msdpp.

Knowledge about the hidden factors that determine particular system dynamics is crucial for both explaining them and pursuing goal-directed interventions. Inferring these factors from time series data without supervision remains an open challenge. Here, we focus on spatiotemporal processes, including wave propagation and weather dynamics, for which we assume that universal causes (e.g. physics) apply throughout space and time. A recently introduced DIstributed SpatioTemporal graph Artificial Neural network Architecture (DISTANA) is used and enhanced to learn such processes, requiring fewer parameters and achieving significantly more accurate predictions compared to temporal convolutional neural networks and other related approaches. We show that DISTANA, when combined with a retrospective latent state inference principle called active tuning, can reliably derive location-respective hidden causal factors. In a current weather prediction benchmark, DISTANA infers our planet's land-sea mask solely by observing temperature dynamics and, meanwhile, uses the self inferred information to improve its own future temperature predictions.

We present a large-scale study on unsupervised spatiotemporal representation learning from videos. With a unified perspective on four recent image-based frameworks, we study a simple objective that can easily generalize all these methods to space-time. Our objective encourages temporally-persistent features in the same video, and in spite of its simplicity, it works surprisingly well across: (i) different unsupervised frameworks, (ii) pre-training datasets, (iii) downstream datasets, and (iv) backbone architectures. We draw a series of intriguing observations from this study, e.g., we discover that encouraging long-spanned persistency can be effective even if the timespan is 60 seconds. In addition to state-of-the-art results in multiple benchmarks, we report a few promising cases in which unsupervised pre-training can outperform its supervised counterpart. Code is made available at https://github.com/facebookresearch/SlowFast

Spatio-temporal reasoning is a core capability for Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) operating in the real world. As such, evaluating it precisely has become an essential challenge. However, existing spatio-temporal reasoning benchmark datasets primarily rely on static image sets or passively curated video data, which limits the evaluation of fine-grained reasoning capabilities. In this paper, we introduce VGenST-Bench, a video benchmark that employs generative models to actively synthesize highly controlled and diverse evaluation scenarios. To construct VGenST-Bench, we propose a multi-agent pipeline incorporating a human quality control stage, ensuring the quality of all generated videos and QA pairs. We establish a comprehensive 3x2x2 video taxonomy, encompassing Spatial Scale, Perspective, and Scene Dynamics to span diverse scenarios. Furthermore, we design a hierarchical task suite that decouples low-level visual perception from high-level spatio-temporal reasoning. By shifting the paradigm from passive curation to active synthesis, VGenST-Bench enables fine-grained diagnosis of spatio-temporal understanding in MLLMs.

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) are probabilistic generative frameworks. They model discrete event sequences localized in continuous time. Generally, real-life events reveal descriptive information, known as marks. Marked TPPs model time and marks of the event together for practical relevance. Conditioned on past events, marked TPPs aim to learn the joint distribution of the time and the mark of the next event. For simplicity, conditionally independent TPP models assume time and marks are independent given event history. They factorize the conditional joint distribution of time and mark into the product of individual conditional distributions. This structural limitation in the design of TPP models hurt the predictive performance on entangled time and mark interactions. In this work, we model the conditional inter-dependence of time and mark to overcome the limitations of conditionally independent models. We construct a multivariate TPP conditioning the time distribution on the current event mark in addition to past events. Besides the conventional intensity-based models for conditional joint distribution, we also draw on flexible intensity-free TPP models from the literature. The proposed TPP models outperform conditionally independent and dependent models in standard prediction tasks. Our experimentation on various datasets with multiple evaluation metrics highlights the merit of the proposed approach.

Large-scale land enclosure for speculative mega-development constitutes a non-equilibrium spatial process whose velocity, topology, and irreversibility remain poorly quantified. We study the Pantai Indah Kapuk 2 (PIK2) coastal mega-development north of Jakarta, Indonesia, using eight years (2017--2024) of Sentinel-2 land-use/land-cover (LULC) data at 10-meter resolution. The landscape is projected onto a Marxian probability simplex partitioning terrestrial pixels into Commons, Agrarian, and Capital fractions. Fisher-Rao (FR) geodesic distances on this simplex identify a transformation pulse of 0.405~rad/yr during 2019--2020, coinciding with major construction activity. Absorbing Markov chain analysis yields expected absorption times into the built environment of 46.0~years for cropland and 38.1~years for tree cover, with a pooled built-area self-retention rate of 96.4%. Percolation analysis reveals that a giant connected component containing 89--95% of all built pixels persists at occupation probabilities p in [0.096, 0.162], far below the random percolation threshold p_c approx 0.593, indicating planned rather than stochastic spatial growth. The box-counting fractal dimension of the urban boundary increases from d_f = 1.316 to 1.397, consistent with increasingly irregular frontier expansion. These results suggest that information-geometric and statistical-mechanical tools can characterize the kinematic and topological signatures of capitalist spatial accumulation with quantitative precision.

Understanding the changing structure of science over time is essential to elucidating how science evolves. We develop diachronic embeddings of scholarly periodicals to quantify "semantic changes" of periodicals across decades, allowing us to track the evolution of research topics and identify rapidly developing fields. By mapping periodicals within a physical-life-health triangle, we reveal an evolving interdisciplinary science landscape, finding an overall trend toward specialization for most periodicals but increasing interdisciplinarity for bioscience periodicals. Analyzing a periodical's trajectory within this triangle over time allows us to visualize how its research focus shifts. Furthermore, by monitoring the formation of local clusters of periodicals, we can identify emerging research topics such as AIDS research and nanotechnology in the 1980s. Our work offers novel quantification in the science of science and provides a quantitative lens to examine the evolution of science, which may facilitate future investigations into the emergence and development of research fields.

Optical and radar satellite time series are synergetic: optical images contain rich spectral information, while C-band radar captures useful geometrical information and is immune to cloud cover. Motivated by the recent success of temporal attention-based methods across multiple crop mapping tasks, we propose to investigate how these models can be adapted to operate on several modalities. We implement and evaluate multiple fusion schemes, including a novel approach and simple adjustments to the training procedure, significantly improving performance and efficiency with little added complexity. We show that most fusion schemes have advantages and drawbacks, making them relevant for specific settings. We then evaluate the benefit of multimodality across several tasks: parcel classification, pixel-based segmentation, and panoptic parcel segmentation. We show that by leveraging both optical and radar time series, multimodal temporal attention-based models can outmatch single-modality models in terms of performance and resilience to cloud cover. To conduct these experiments, we augment the PASTIS dataset with spatially aligned radar image time series. The resulting dataset, PASTIS-R, constitutes the first large-scale, multimodal, and open-access satellite time series dataset with semantic and instance annotations.

Predicting crimes in urban environments is crucial for public safety, yet existing prediction methods often struggle to align the knowledge across diverse cities that vary dramatically in data availability of specific crime types. We propose HYpernetwork-enhanced Spatial Temporal Learning (HYSTL), a framework that can effectively train a unified, stronger crime predictor without assuming identical crime types in different cities' records. In HYSTL, instead of parameterising a dedicated predictor per crime type, a hypernetwork is designed to dynamically generate parameters for the prediction function conditioned on the crime type of interest. To bridge the semantic gap between different crime types, a structured crime knowledge graph is built, where the learned representations of crimes are used as the input to the hypernetwork to facilitate parameter generation. As such, when making predictions for each crime type, the predictor is additionally guided by its intricate association with other relevant crime types. Extensive experiments are performed on two cities with non-overlapping crime types, and the results demonstrate HYSTL outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.

Accuracy and timeliness are indeed often conflicting goals in prediction tasks. Premature predictions may yield a higher rate of false alarms, whereas delaying predictions to gather more information can render them too late to be useful. In applications such as wildfires, crimes, and traffic jams, timely forecasting are vital for safeguarding human life and property. Consequently, finding a balance between accuracy and timeliness is crucial. In this paper, we propose an early spatio-temporal forecasting model based on Multi-Objective reinforcement learning that can either implement an optimal policy given a preference or infer the preference based on a small number of samples. The model addresses two primary challenges: 1) enhancing the accuracy of early forecasting and 2) providing the optimal policy for determining the most suitable prediction time for each area. Our method demonstrates superior performance on three large-scale real-world datasets, surpassing existing methods in early spatio-temporal forecasting tasks.

Multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) is crucial for decision-making to precisely forecast the future values/trends, based on the complex relationships identified from historical observations of multiple sequences. Recently, Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Networks (STGNNs) have gradually become the theme of MTSF model as their powerful capability in mining spatial-temporal dependencies, but almost of them heavily rely on the assumption of historical data integrity. In reality, due to factors such as data collector failures and time-consuming repairment, it is extremely challenging to collect the whole historical observations without missing any variable. In this case, STGNNs can only utilize a subset of normal variables and easily suffer from the incorrect spatial-temporal dependency modeling issue, resulting in the degradation of their forecasting performance. To address the problem, in this paper, we propose a novel Graph Interpolation Attention Recursive Network (named GinAR) to precisely model the spatial-temporal dependencies over the limited collected data for forecasting. In GinAR, it consists of two key components, that is, interpolation attention and adaptive graph convolution to take place of the fully connected layer of simple recursive units, and thus are capable of recovering all missing variables and reconstructing the correct spatial-temporal dependencies for recursively modeling of multivariate time series data, respectively. Extensive experiments conducted on five real-world datasets demonstrate that GinAR outperforms 11 SOTA baselines, and even when 90% of variables are missing, it can still accurately predict the future values of all variables.

Recent progress in single-image 3D generation highlights the importance of multi-view coherency, leveraging 3D priors from large-scale diffusion models pretrained on Internet-scale images. However, the aspect of novel-view diversity remains underexplored within the research landscape due to the ambiguity in converting a 2D image into 3D content, where numerous potential shapes can emerge. Here, we aim to address this research gap by simultaneously addressing both consistency and diversity. Yet, striking a balance between these two aspects poses a considerable challenge due to their inherent trade-offs. This work introduces HarmonyView, a simple yet effective diffusion sampling technique adept at decomposing two intricate aspects in single-image 3D generation: consistency and diversity. This approach paves the way for a more nuanced exploration of the two critical dimensions within the sampling process. Moreover, we propose a new evaluation metric based on CLIP image and text encoders to comprehensively assess the diversity of the generated views, which closely aligns with human evaluators' judgments. In experiments, HarmonyView achieves a harmonious balance, demonstrating a win-win scenario in both consistency and diversity.

Spatio-temporal consistency is a critical research topic in video generation. A qualified generated video segment must ensure plot plausibility and coherence while maintaining visual consistency of objects and scenes across varying viewpoints. Prior research, especially in open-source projects, primarily focuses on either temporal or spatial consistency, or their basic combination, such as appending a description of a camera movement after a prompt without constraining the outcomes of this movement. However, camera movement may introduce new objects to the scene or eliminate existing ones, thereby overlaying and affecting the preceding narrative. Especially in videos with numerous camera movements, the interplay between multiple plots becomes increasingly complex. This paper introduces and examines integral spatio-temporal consistency, considering the synergy between plot progression and camera techniques, and the long-term impact of prior content on subsequent generation. Our research encompasses dataset construction through to the development of the model. Initially, we constructed a DropletVideo-10M dataset, which comprises 10 million videos featuring dynamic camera motion and object actions. Each video is annotated with an average caption of 206 words, detailing various camera movements and plot developments. Following this, we developed and trained the DropletVideo model, which excels in preserving spatio-temporal coherence during video generation. The DropletVideo dataset and model are accessible at https://dropletx.github.io.

Understanding the creation, evolution, and dissemination of scientific knowledge is crucial for bridging diverse subject areas and addressing complex global challenges such as pandemics, climate change, and ethical AI. Scientometrics, the quantitative and qualitative study of scientific literature, provides valuable insights into these processes. We introduce Scito2M, a longitudinal scientometric dataset with over two million academic publications, providing comprehensive contents information and citation graphs to support cross-disciplinary analyses. Using Scito2M, we conduct a temporal study spanning over 30 years to explore key questions in scientometrics: the evolution of academic terminology, citation patterns, and interdisciplinary knowledge exchange. Our findings reveal critical insights, such as disparities in epistemic cultures, knowledge production modes, and citation practices. For example, rapidly developing, application-driven fields like LLMs exhibit significantly shorter citation age (2.48 years) compared to traditional theoretical disciplines like oral history (9.71 years).

Significant progress has been made in spatial intelligence, spanning both spatial reconstruction and world exploration. However, the scalability and real-world fidelity of current models remain severely constrained by the scarcity of large-scale, high-quality training data. While several datasets provide camera pose information, they are typically limited in scale, diversity, and annotation richness, particularly for real-world dynamic scenes with ground-truth camera motion. To this end, we collect SpatialVID, a dataset consists of a large corpus of in-the-wild videos with diverse scenes, camera movements and dense 3D annotations such as per-frame camera poses, depth, and motion instructions. Specifically, we collect more than 21,000 hours of raw video, and process them into 2.7 million clips through a hierarchical filtering pipeline, totaling 7,089 hours of dynamic content. A subsequent annotation pipeline enriches these clips with detailed spatial and semantic information, including camera poses, depth maps, dynamic masks, structured captions, and serialized motion instructions. Analysis of SpatialVID's data statistics reveals a richness and diversity that directly foster improved model generalization and performance, establishing it as a key asset for the video and 3D vision research community.

Over the past year, the development of large language models (LLMs) has brought spatial intelligence into focus, with much attention on vision-based embodied intelligence. However, spatial intelligence spans a broader range of disciplines and scales, from navigation and urban planning to remote sensing and earth science. What are the differences and connections between spatial intelligence across these fields? In this paper, we first review human spatial cognition and its implications for spatial intelligence in LLMs. We then examine spatial memory, knowledge representations, and abstract reasoning in LLMs, highlighting their roles and connections. Finally, we analyze spatial intelligence across scales -- from embodied to urban and global levels -- following a framework that progresses from spatial memory and understanding to spatial reasoning and intelligence. Through this survey, we aim to provide insights into interdisciplinary spatial intelligence research and inspire future studies.

Earth observation is a fundamental tool for monitoring the evolution of land use in specific areas of interest. Observing and precisely defining change, in this context, requires both time-series data and pixel-wise segmentations. To that end, we propose the DynamicEarthNet dataset that consists of daily, multi-spectral satellite observations of 75 selected areas of interest distributed over the globe with imagery from Planet Labs. These observations are paired with pixel-wise monthly semantic segmentation labels of 7 land use and land cover (LULC) classes. DynamicEarthNet is the first dataset that provides this unique combination of daily measurements and high-quality labels. In our experiments, we compare several established baselines that either utilize the daily observations as additional training data (semi-supervised learning) or multiple observations at once (spatio-temporal learning) as a point of reference for future research. Finally, we propose a new evaluation metric SCS that addresses the specific challenges associated with time-series semantic change segmentation. The data is available at: https://mediatum.ub.tum.de/1650201.

With the exacerbation of the biodiversity and climate crises, macroecological pursuits such as global biodiversity mapping become more urgent. Remote sensing offers a wealth of Earth observation data for ecological studies, but the scarcity of labeled datasets remains a major challenge. Recently, self-supervised learning has enabled learning representations from unlabeled data, triggering the development of pretrained geospatial models with generalizable features. However, these models are often trained on datasets biased toward areas of high human activity, leaving entire ecological regions underrepresented. Additionally, while some datasets attempt to address seasonality through multi-date imagery, they typically follow calendar seasons rather than local phenological cycles. To better capture vegetation seasonality at a global scale, we propose a simple phenology-informed sampling strategy and introduce corresponding SSL4Eco, a multi-date Sentinel-2 dataset, on which we train an existing model with a season-contrastive objective. We compare representations learned from SSL4Eco against other datasets on diverse ecological downstream tasks and demonstrate that our straightforward sampling method consistently improves representation quality, highlighting the importance of dataset construction. The model pretrained on SSL4Eco reaches state of the art performance on 7 out of 8 downstream tasks spanning (multi-label) classification and regression. We release our code, data, and model weights to support macroecological and computer vision research at https://github.com/PlekhanovaElena/ssl4eco.

Temporal point processes are the dominant paradigm for modeling sequences of events happening at irregular intervals. The standard way of learning in such models is by estimating the conditional intensity function. However, parameterizing the intensity function usually incurs several trade-offs. We show how to overcome the limitations of intensity-based approaches by directly modeling the conditional distribution of inter-event times. We draw on the literature on normalizing flows to design models that are flexible and efficient. We additionally propose a simple mixture model that matches the flexibility of flow-based models, but also permits sampling and computing moments in closed form. The proposed models achieve state-of-the-art performance in standard prediction tasks and are suitable for novel applications, such as learning sequence embeddings and imputing missing data.

In this paper, we introduce PredBench, a benchmark tailored for the holistic evaluation of spatio-temporal prediction networks. Despite significant progress in this field, there remains a lack of a standardized framework for a detailed and comparative analysis of various prediction network architectures. PredBench addresses this gap by conducting large-scale experiments, upholding standardized and appropriate experimental settings, and implementing multi-dimensional evaluations. This benchmark integrates 12 widely adopted methods with 15 diverse datasets across multiple application domains, offering extensive evaluation of contemporary spatio-temporal prediction networks. Through meticulous calibration of prediction settings across various applications, PredBench ensures evaluations relevant to their intended use and enables fair comparisons. Moreover, its multi-dimensional evaluation framework broadens the analysis with a comprehensive set of metrics, providing deep insights into the capabilities of models. The findings from our research offer strategic directions for future developments in the field. Our codebase is available at https://github.com/OpenEarthLab/PredBench.

Satellite image time series (SITS) provide continuous observations of the Earth's surface, making them essential for applications such as environmental management and disaster assessment. However, existing spatiotemporal foundation models rely on plain vision transformers, which encode entire temporal sequences without explicitly capturing multiscale spatiotemporal relationships between land objects. This limitation hinders their effectiveness in downstream tasks. To overcome this challenge, we propose TiMo, a novel hierarchical vision transformer foundation model tailored for SITS analysis. At its core, we introduce a spatiotemporal gyroscope attention mechanism that dynamically captures evolving multiscale patterns across both time and space. For pre-training, we curate MillionST, a large-scale dataset of one million images from 100,000 geographic locations, each captured across 10 temporal phases over five years, encompassing diverse geospatial changes and seasonal variations. Leveraging this dataset, we adapt masked image modeling to pre-train TiMo, enabling it to effectively learn and encode generalizable spatiotemporal representations.Extensive experiments across multiple spatiotemporal tasks-including deforestation monitoring, land cover segmentation, crop type classification, and flood detection-demonstrate TiMo's superiority over state-of-the-art methods. Code, model, and dataset will be released at https://github.com/MiliLab/TiMo.

Human mobility plays a crucial role in transportation, urban planning, and public health. Advances in deep learning and the availability of diverse mobility data have transformed mobility modeling. However, existing deep learning models often focus on spatio-temporal patterns and struggle to capture the semantic interdependencies among activities, while also being limited by specific data sources. These challenges reduce their realism and adaptability. Traditional activity-based models (ABMs) face issues as well, relying on rigid assumptions and requiring extensive data, making them costly and difficult to adapt to new regions, especially those with limited conventional travel data. To address these limitations, we develop a novel generative deep learning approach for human mobility modeling and synthesis that incorporates both activity patterns and location trajectories using open-source data. The model can be fine-tuned with local data, allowing it to adapt to and accurately represent mobility patterns across diverse regions. The model is evaluated on a nationwide dataset of the United States, where it demonstrates superior performance in generating activity-location chains that closely follow ground truth distributions. Further tests using state- or city-specific datasets from California, Washington, and Mexico City confirm its transferability. This innovative approach offers substantial potential to advance mobility modeling research, particularly in generating synthetic human mobility data. This can provide urban planners and policymakers with enhanced tools for simulating mobility in diverse regions and better informing decisions related to transportation, urban development, and public health.

We present GeoGrid-Bench, a benchmark designed to evaluate the ability of foundation models to understand geo-spatial data in the grid structure. Geo-spatial datasets pose distinct challenges due to their dense numerical values, strong spatial and temporal dependencies, and unique multimodal representations including tabular data, heatmaps, and geographic visualizations. To assess how foundation models can support scientific research in this domain, GeoGrid-Bench features large-scale, real-world data covering 16 climate variables across 150 locations and extended time frames. The benchmark includes approximately 3,200 question-answer pairs, systematically generated from 8 domain expert-curated templates to reflect practical tasks encountered by human scientists. These range from basic queries at a single location and time to complex spatiotemporal comparisons across regions and periods. Our evaluation reveals that vision-language models perform best overall, and we provide a fine-grained analysis of the strengths and limitations of different foundation models in different geo-spatial tasks. This benchmark offers clearer insights into how foundation models can be effectively applied to geo-spatial data analysis and used to support scientific research.

Supervised learning datasets may contain multiple cues that explain the training set equally well, i.e., learning any of them would lead to the correct predictions on the training data. However, many of them can be spurious, i.e., lose their predictive power under a distribution shift and consequently fail to generalize to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. Recently developed "diversification" methods (Lee et al., 2023; Pagliardini et al., 2023) approach this problem by finding multiple diverse hypotheses that rely on different features. This paper aims to study this class of methods and identify the key components contributing to their OOD generalization abilities. We show that (1) diversification methods are highly sensitive to the distribution of the unlabeled data used for diversification and can underperform significantly when away from a method-specific sweet spot. (2) Diversification alone is insufficient for OOD generalization. The choice of the used learning algorithm, e.g., the model's architecture and pretraining, is crucial. In standard experiments (classification on Waterbirds and Office-Home datasets), using the second-best choice leads to an up to 20\% absolute drop in accuracy. (3) The optimal choice of learning algorithm depends on the unlabeled data and vice versa i.e. they are co-dependent. (4) Finally, we show that, in practice, the above pitfalls cannot be alleviated by increasing the number of diverse hypotheses, the major feature of diversification methods. These findings provide a clearer understanding of the critical design factors influencing the OOD generalization abilities of diversification methods. They can guide practitioners in how to use the existing methods best and guide researchers in developing new, better ones.

LWM-Temporal is a new member of the Large Wireless Models (LWM) family that targets the spatiotemporal nature of wireless channels. Designed as a task-agnostic foundation model, LWM-Temporal learns universal channel embeddings that capture mobility-induced evolution and are reusable across various downstream tasks. To achieve this objective, LWM-Temporal operates in the angle-delay-time domain and introduces Sparse Spatio-Temporal Attention (SSTA), a propagation-aligned attention mechanism that restricts interactions to physically plausible neighborhoods, reducing attention complexity by an order of magnitude while preserving geometry-consistent dependencies. LWM-Temporal is pretrained in a self-supervised manner using a physics-informed masking curriculum that emulates realistic occlusions, pilot sparsity, and measurement impairments. Experimental results on channel prediction across multiple mobility regimes show consistent improvements over strong baselines, particularly under long horizons and limited fine-tuning data, highlighting the importance of geometry-aware architectures and geometry-consistent pretraining for learning transferable spatiotemporal wireless representations.

Spatial-temporal forecasting and imputation are important for real-world intelligent systems. Most existing methods are tailored for individual forecasting or imputation tasks but are not designed for both. Additionally, they are less effective for zero-shot and few-shot learning. While pre-trained language model (PLM) have exhibited strong pattern recognition and reasoning abilities across various tasks, including few-shot and zero-shot learning, their applications in spatial-temporal data understanding has been constrained by insufficient modeling of complex correlations such as the temporal correlations, spatial connectivity, non-pairwise and high-order spatial-temporal correlations within data. In this paper, we propose STD-PLM for understanding both spatial and temporal properties of Spatial-Temporal Data with PLM, which is capable of implementing both spatial-temporal forecasting and imputation tasks. STD-PLM understands spatial-temporal correlations via explicitly designed spatial and temporal tokenizers. Topology-aware node embeddings are designed for PLM to comprehend and exploit the topology structure of data in inductive manner. Furthermore, to mitigate the efficiency issues introduced by the PLM, we design a sandglass attention module (SGA) combined with a specific constrained loss function, which significantly improves the model's efficiency while ensuring performance. Extensive experiments demonstrate that STD-PLM exhibits competitive performance and generalization capabilities across the forecasting and imputation tasks on various datasets. Moreover, STD-PLM achieves promising results on both few-shot and zero-shot tasks.The code is made available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/STD-PLM-F3BA{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/STD-PLM-F3BA}

Traffic forecasting has emerged as a core component of intelligent transportation systems. However, timely accurate traffic forecasting, especially long-term forecasting, still remains an open challenge due to the highly nonlinear and dynamic spatial-temporal dependencies of traffic flows. In this paper, we propose a novel paradigm of Spatial-Temporal Transformer Networks (STTNs) that leverages dynamical directed spatial dependencies and long-range temporal dependencies to improve the accuracy of long-term traffic forecasting. Specifically, we present a new variant of graph neural networks, named spatial transformer, by dynamically modeling directed spatial dependencies with self-attention mechanism to capture realtime traffic conditions as well as the directionality of traffic flows. Furthermore, different spatial dependency patterns can be jointly modeled with multi-heads attention mechanism to consider diverse relationships related to different factors (e.g. similarity, connectivity and covariance). On the other hand, the temporal transformer is utilized to model long-range bidirectional temporal dependencies across multiple time steps. Finally, they are composed as a block to jointly model the spatial-temporal dependencies for accurate traffic prediction. Compared to existing works, the proposed model enables fast and scalable training over a long range spatial-temporal dependencies. Experiment results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves competitive results compared with the state-of-the-arts, especially forecasting long-term traffic flows on real-world PeMS-Bay and PeMSD7(M) datasets.

Forecasting surface water dynamics is crucial for water resource management and climate change adaptation. However, the field lacks comprehensive datasets and standardized benchmarks. In this paper, we introduce HydroChronos, a large-scale, multi-modal spatiotemporal dataset for surface water dynamics forecasting designed to address this gap. We couple the dataset with three forecasting tasks. The dataset includes over three decades of aligned Landsat 5 and Sentinel-2 imagery, climate data, and Digital Elevation Models for diverse lakes and rivers across Europe, North America, and South America. We also propose AquaClimaTempo UNet, a novel spatiotemporal architecture with a dedicated climate data branch, as a strong benchmark baseline. Our model significantly outperforms a Persistence baseline for forecasting future water dynamics by +14% and +11% F1 across change detection and direction of change classification tasks, and by +0.1 MAE on the magnitude of change regression. Finally, we conduct an Explainable AI analysis to identify the key climate variables and input channels that influence surface water change, providing insights to inform and guide future modeling efforts.

Predicting the behavior of complex systems is critical in many scientific and engineering domains, and hinges on the model's ability to capture their underlying dynamics. Existing methods encode the intrinsic dynamics of high-dimensional observations through latent representations and predict autoregressively. However, these latent representations lose the inherent spatial structure of spatiotemporal dynamics, leading to the predictor's inability to effectively model spatial interactions and neglect emerging dynamics during long-term prediction. In this work, we propose SparseDiff, introducing a test-time adaptation strategy to dynamically update the encoding scheme to accommodate emergent spatiotemporal structures during the long-term evolution of the system. Specifically, we first design a codebook-based sparse encoder, which coarsens the continuous spatial domain into a sparse graph topology. Then, we employ a graph neural ordinary differential equation to model the dynamics and guide a diffusion decoder for reconstruction. SparseDiff autoregressively predicts the spatiotemporal evolution and adjust the sparse topological structure to adapt to emergent spatiotemporal patterns by adaptive re-encoding. Extensive evaluations on representative systems demonstrate that SparseDiff achieves an average prediction error reduction of 49.99\% compared to baselines, requiring only 1\% of the spatial resolution.

Existing Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection (MTSAD) frameworks increasingly rely on integrating Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) with sequence models to capture complex spatio-temporal dependencies. However, less attention is paid to the spatial over-generalization problem, where unconstrained structural modeling indiscriminately reconstructs anomalies, inevitably degrading detection recall. To tackle this problem, we propose a novel framework that unifies spatio-temporal modeling through a joint prior-observation adversarial learning paradigm. In the spatial dimension, the model alternately learns adjacency matrices as structural prior and models the association discrepancy between prior and data-driven observation in a minimax manner during training. Such adversarial optimization not only improves the model sensitivity for time-wise detection, but also enables the model to localize anomalies to specific channels. To systematically evaluate this anomaly localization capability, we further construct a synthetic benchmark equipped with precise channel-wise annotations. Extensive experiments across public datasets and our dedicated benchmark demonstrate that the proposed framework establishes a new state-of-the-art in both time-wise detection and spatial localization tasks. Our code, pre-trained models, and benchmark are publicly available at https://github.com/anocodetest1/POST.

With the growing popularity of text-to-image generative models, there has been increasing focus on understanding their risks and biases. Recent work has found that state-of-the-art models struggle to depict everyday objects with the true diversity of the real world and have notable gaps between geographic regions. In this work, we aim to increase the diversity of generated images of common objects such that per-region variations are representative of the real world. We introduce an inference time intervention, contextualized Vendi Score Guidance (c-VSG), that guides the backwards steps of latent diffusion models to increase the diversity of a sample as compared to a "memory bank" of previously generated images while constraining the amount of variation within that of an exemplar set of real-world contextualizing images. We evaluate c-VSG with two geographically representative datasets and find that it substantially increases the diversity of generated images, both for the worst performing regions and on average, while simultaneously maintaining or improving image quality and consistency. Additionally, qualitative analyses reveal that diversity of generated images is significantly improved, including along the lines of reductive region portrayals present in the original model. We hope that this work is a step towards text-to-image generative models that reflect the true geographic diversity of the world.

Unprecedented access to multi-temporal satellite imagery has opened new perspectives for a variety of Earth observation tasks. Among them, pixel-precise panoptic segmentation of agricultural parcels has major economic and environmental implications. While researchers have explored this problem for single images, we argue that the complex temporal patterns of crop phenology are better addressed with temporal sequences of images. In this paper, we present the first end-to-end, single-stage method for panoptic segmentation of Satellite Image Time Series (SITS). This module can be combined with our novel image sequence encoding network which relies on temporal self-attention to extract rich and adaptive multi-scale spatio-temporal features. We also introduce PASTIS, the first open-access SITS dataset with panoptic annotations. We demonstrate the superiority of our encoder for semantic segmentation against multiple competing architectures, and set up the first state-of-the-art of panoptic segmentation of SITS. Our implementation and PASTIS are publicly available.

Forecasting multiple future events within a given time horizon is essential for applications in finance, retail, social networks, and healthcare. Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPP) provide a principled framework to model both the timing and labels of events. However, most existing research focuses on predicting only the next event, leaving long-horizon forecasting largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce HoTPP, the first benchmark specifically designed to rigorously evaluate long-horizon predictions. We identify shortcomings in widely used evaluation metrics, propose a theoretically grounded T-mAP metric, present strong statistical baselines, and offer efficient implementations of popular models. Our empirical results demonstrate that modern MTPP approaches often underperform simple statistical baselines. Furthermore, we analyze the diversity of predicted sequences and find that most methods exhibit mode collapse. Finally, we analyze the impact of autoregression and intensity-based losses on prediction quality, and outline promising directions for future research. The HoTPP source code, hyperparameters, and full evaluation results are available at GitHub.

Biodiversity research requires complete and detailed information to study ecosystem dynamics at different scales. Employing data-driven methods like Machine Learning is getting traction in ecology and more specific biodiversity, offering alternative modelling pathways. For these methods to deliver accurate results there is the need for large, curated and multimodal datasets that offer granular spatial and temporal resolutions. In this work, we introduce BioCube, a multimodal, fine-grained global dataset for ecology and biodiversity research. BioCube incorporates species observations through images, audio recordings and descriptions, environmental DNA, vegetation indices, agricultural, forest, land indicators, and high-resolution climate variables. All observations are geospatially aligned under the WGS84 geodetic system, spanning from 2000 to 2020. The dataset will become available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/BioDT/BioCube while the acquisition and processing code base at https://github.com/BioDT/bfm-data.

The traditional deep learning paradigm that solely relies on labeled data has limitations in representing the spatial relationships between farmland elements and the surrounding environment.It struggles to effectively model the dynamic temporal evolution and spatial heterogeneity of farmland. Language,as a structured knowledge carrier,can explicitly express the spatiotemporal characteristics of farmland, such as its shape, distribution,and surrounding environmental information.Therefore,a language-driven learning paradigm can effectively alleviate the challenges posed by the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of farmland.However,in the field of remote sensing imagery of farmland,there is currently no comprehensive benchmark dataset to support this research direction.To fill this gap,we introduced language based descriptions of farmland and developed FarmSeg-VL dataset,the first fine-grained image-text dataset designed for spatiotemporal farmland segmentation.Firstly, this article proposed a semi-automatic annotation method that can accurately assign caption to each image, ensuring high data quality and semantic richness while improving the efficiency of dataset construction.Secondly,the FarmSeg-VL exhibits significant spatiotemporal characteristics.In terms of the temporal dimension,it covers all four seasons.In terms of the spatial dimension,it covers eight typical agricultural regions across China.In addition, in terms of captions,FarmSeg-VL covers rich spatiotemporal characteristics of farmland,including its inherent properties,phenological characteristics, spatial distribution,topographic and geomorphic features,and the distribution of surrounding environments.Finally,we present a performance analysis of VLMs and the deep learning models that rely solely on labels trained on the FarmSeg-VL,demonstrating its potential as a standard benchmark for farmland segmentation.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated unprecedented capabilities across various natural language processing tasks. Their ability to process and generate viable text and code has made them ubiquitous in many fields, while their deployment as knowledge bases and "reasoning" tools remains an area of ongoing research. In geography, a growing body of literature has been focusing on evaluating LLMs' geographical knowledge and their ability to perform spatial reasoning. However, very little is still known about the internal functioning of these models, especially about how they process geographical information. In this chapter, we establish a novel framework for the study of geospatial mechanistic interpretability - using spatial analysis to reverse engineer how LLMs handle geographical information. Our aim is to advance our understanding of the internal representations that these complex models generate while processing geographical information - what one might call "how LLMs think about geographic information" if such phrasing was not an undue anthropomorphism. We first outline the use of probing in revealing internal structures within LLMs. We then introduce the field of mechanistic interpretability, discussing the superposition hypothesis and the role of sparse autoencoders in disentangling polysemantic internal representations of LLMs into more interpretable, monosemantic features. In our experiments, we use spatial autocorrelation to show how features obtained for placenames display spatial patterns related to their geographic location and can thus be interpreted geospatially, providing insights into how these models process geographical information. We conclude by discussing how our framework can help shape the study and use of foundation models in geography.

Spatial reasoning is a crucial component of both biological and artificial intelligence. In this work, we present a comprehensive study of the capability of current state-of-the-art large language models (LLMs) on spatial reasoning. To support our study, we created and contribute a novel Spatial Reasoning Characterization (SpaRC) framework and Spatial Reasoning Paths (SpaRP) datasets, to enable an in-depth understanding of the spatial relations and compositions as well as the usefulness of spatial reasoning chains. We found that all the state-of-the-art LLMs do not perform well on the datasets -- their performances are consistently low across different setups. The spatial reasoning capability improves substantially as model sizes scale up. Finetuning both large language models (e.g., Llama-2-70B) and smaller ones (e.g., Llama-2-13B) can significantly improve their F1-scores by 7--32 absolute points. We also found that the top proprietary LLMs still significantly outperform their open-source counterparts in topological spatial understanding and reasoning.

Time-series forecasting is one of the most active research topics in artificial intelligence. Applications in real-world time series should consider two factors for achieving reliable predictions: modeling dynamic dependencies among multiple variables and adjusting the model's intrinsic hyperparameters. A still open gap in that literature is that statistical and ensemble learning approaches systematically present lower predictive performance than deep learning methods. They generally disregard the data sequence aspect entangled with multivariate data represented in more than one time series. Conversely, this work presents a novel neural network architecture for time-series forecasting that combines the power of graph evolution with deep recurrent learning on distinct data distributions; we named our method Recurrent Graph Evolution Neural Network (ReGENN). The idea is to infer multiple multivariate relationships between co-occurring time-series by assuming that the temporal data depends not only on inner variables and intra-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from itself) but also on outer variables and inter-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from other-selves). An extensive set of experiments was conducted comparing ReGENN with dozens of ensemble methods and classical statistical ones, showing sound improvement of up to 64.87% over the competing algorithms. Furthermore, we present an analysis of the intermediate weights arising from ReGENN, showing that by looking at inter and intra-temporal relationships simultaneously, time-series forecasting is majorly improved if paying attention to how multiple multivariate data synchronously evolve.

Graph Neural Networks have gained huge interest in the past few years. These powerful algorithms expanded deep learning models to non-Euclidean space and were able to achieve state of art performance in various applications including recommender systems and social networks. However, this performance is based on static graph structures assumption which limits the Graph Neural Networks performance when the data varies with time. Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks are extension of Graph Neural Networks that takes the time factor into account. Recently, various Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Network algorithms were proposed and achieved superior performance compared to other deep learning algorithms in several time dependent applications. This survey discusses interesting topics related to Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks, including algorithms, applications, and open challenges.

Modern Text-to-Image (T2I) diffusion models have achieved remarkable semantic alignment, yet they often suffer from a significant lack of variety, converging on a narrow set of visual solutions for any given prompt. This typicality bias presents a challenge for creative applications that require a wide range of generative outcomes. We identify a fundamental trade-off in current approaches to diversity: modifying model inputs requires costly optimization to incorporate feedback from the generative path. In contrast, acting on spatially-committed intermediate latents tends to disrupt the forming visual structure, leading to artifacts. In this work, we propose to apply repulsion in the Contextual Space as a novel framework for achieving rich diversity in Diffusion Transformers. By intervening in the multimodal attention channels, we apply on-the-fly repulsion during the transformer's forward pass, injecting the intervention between blocks where text conditioning is enriched with emergent image structure. This allows for redirecting the guidance trajectory after it is structurally informed but before the composition is fixed. Our results demonstrate that repulsion in the Contextual Space produces significantly richer diversity without sacrificing visual fidelity or semantic adherence. Furthermore, our method is uniquely efficient, imposing a small computational overhead while remaining effective even in modern "Turbo" and distilled models where traditional trajectory-based interventions typically fail.

Large climate-model ensembles are computationally expensive; yet many downstream analyses would benefit from additional, statistically consistent realizations of spatiotemporal climate variables. We study a generative modeling approach for producing new realizations from a limited set of available runs by transferring structure learned across an ensemble. Using monthly near-surface temperature time series from ten independent reanalysis realizations (ERA5), we find that a vanilla conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) trained jointly across realizations yields a fragmented latent space that fails to generalize to unseen ensemble members. To address this, we introduce a latent-constrained CVAE (LC-CVAE) that enforces cross-realization homogeneity of latent embeddings at a small set of shared geographic 'anchor' locations. We then use multi-output Gaussian process regression in the latent space to predict latent coordinates at unsampled locations in a new realization, followed by decoding to generate full time series fields. Experiments and ablations demonstrate (i) instability when training on a single realization, (ii) diminishing returns after incorporating roughly five realizations, and (iii) a trade-off between spatial coverage and reconstruction quality that is closely linked to the average neighbor distance in latent space.

Integrating CNNs and RNNs to capture spatiotemporal dependencies is a prevalent strategy for spatiotemporal prediction tasks. However, the property of CNNs to learn local spatial information decreases their efficiency in capturing spatiotemporal dependencies, thereby limiting their prediction accuracy. In this paper, we propose a new recurrent cell, SwinLSTM, which integrates Swin Transformer blocks and the simplified LSTM, an extension that replaces the convolutional structure in ConvLSTM with the self-attention mechanism. Furthermore, we construct a network with SwinLSTM cell as the core for spatiotemporal prediction. Without using unique tricks, SwinLSTM outperforms state-of-the-art methods on Moving MNIST, Human3.6m, TaxiBJ, and KTH datasets. In particular, it exhibits a significant improvement in prediction accuracy compared to ConvLSTM. Our competitive experimental results demonstrate that learning global spatial dependencies is more advantageous for models to capture spatiotemporal dependencies. We hope that SwinLSTM can serve as a solid baseline to promote the advancement of spatiotemporal prediction accuracy. The codes are publicly available at https://github.com/SongTang-x/SwinLSTM.

Irregularly sampled time series data arise naturally in many application domains including biology, ecology, climate science, astronomy, and health. Such data represent fundamental challenges to many classical models from machine learning and statistics due to the presence of non-uniform intervals between observations. However, there has been significant progress within the machine learning community over the last decade on developing specialized models and architectures for learning from irregularly sampled univariate and multivariate time series data. In this survey, we first describe several axes along which approaches to learning from irregularly sampled time series differ including what data representations they are based on, what modeling primitives they leverage to deal with the fundamental problem of irregular sampling, and what inference tasks they are designed to perform. We then survey the recent literature organized primarily along the axis of modeling primitives. We describe approaches based on temporal discretization, interpolation, recurrence, attention and structural invariance. We discuss similarities and differences between approaches and highlight primary strengths and weaknesses.

In recent years, analysis of remote sensing data has benefited immensely from borrowing techniques from the broader field of computer vision, such as the use of shared models pre-trained on large and diverse datasets. However, satellite imagery has unique features that are not accounted for in traditional computer vision, such as the existence of multiple revisits of the same location. Here, we explore the best way to use revisits in the framework of fine-tuning pre-trained remote sensing models. We focus on an applied research question of relevance to climate change mitigation -- power substation segmentation -- that is representative of applied uses of pre-trained models more generally. Through extensive tests of different multi-temporal input schemes across diverse model architectures, we find that fusing representations from multiple revisits in the model latent space is superior to other methods of using revisits, including as a form of data augmentation. We also find that a SWIN Transformer-based architecture performs better than U-nets and ViT-based models. We verify the generality of our results on a separate building density estimation task.

The takeaway recommendation system aims to recommend users' future takeaway purchases based on their historical purchase behaviors, thereby improving user satisfaction and boosting merchant sales. Existing methods focus on incorporating auxiliary information or leveraging knowledge graphs to alleviate the sparsity issue of user purchase sequences. However, two main challenges limit the performance of these approaches: (1) capturing dynamic user preferences on complex geospatial information and (2) efficiently integrating spatial-temporal knowledge from both graphs and sequence data with low computational costs. In this paper, we propose a novel spatial-temporal knowledge distillation model for takeaway recommendation (STKDRec) based on the two-stage training process. Specifically, during the first pre-training stage, a spatial-temporal knowledge graph (STKG) encoder is trained to extract high-order spatial-temporal dependencies and collaborative associations from the STKG. During the second spatial-temporal knowledge distillation (STKD) stage, a spatial-temporal Transformer (ST-Transformer) is employed to comprehensively model dynamic user preferences on various types of fine-grained geospatial information from a sequential perspective. Furthermore, the STKD strategy is introduced to transfer graph-based spatial-temporal knowledge to the ST-Transformer, facilitating the adaptive fusion of rich knowledge derived from both the STKG and sequence data while reducing computational overhead. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets show that STKDRec significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines.

Vegetation monitoring under climate stress requires answering not only how it will evolve given the expected weather, but how it would respond to alternative meteorological conditions. Forecasting models return the expected vegetation state for the observed weather and cannot answer these scenario-conditioned questions, because future weather is fixed to the recorded trajectory. We present VegSim, a geospatial world model for scenario-conditioned vegetation simulation. VegSim infers a latent vegetation state from sparse satellite-derived NDVI histories, past meteorological covariates, and static spatial context, propagates it forward under future weather forcing through recurrent latent dynamics, and decodes predictive NDVI quantiles at each lead time. Because future forcing enters as a controllable input, the same trained model supports probabilistic forecasting under observed weather and conditional simulation under user-defined meteorological forcing, without supervision on scenario responses. We evaluate VegSim on GreenEarthNet across in-distribution data and spatial, temporal, and joint spatial-temporal shift, where it achieves strong point and probabilistic accuracy against time series and Earth observation forecasting baselines while using a compact architecture. We then simulate vegetation responses across Europe under four meteorological scenarios, and in a France summer 2022 case study, obtaining spatially coherent patterns consistent with known sensitivity to temperature and precipitation. The code is available at https://github.com/arco-group/vegsim.

A key aspect of temporal domains is the ability to make predictions multiple time steps into the future, a process known as multi-step forecasting (MSF). At the core of this process is selecting a forecasting strategy, however, with no existing frameworks to map out the space of strategies, practitioners are left with ad-hoc methods for strategy selection. In this work, we propose Stratify, a parameterised framework that addresses multi-step forecasting, unifying existing strategies and introducing novel, improved strategies. We evaluate Stratify on 18 benchmark datasets, five function classes, and short to long forecast horizons (10, 20, 40, 80). In over 84% of 1080 experiments, novel strategies in Stratify improved performance compared to all existing ones. Importantly, we find that no single strategy consistently outperforms others in all task settings, highlighting the need for practitioners explore the Stratify space to carefully search and select forecasting strategies based on task-specific requirements. Our results are the most comprehensive benchmarking of known and novel forecasting strategies. We make code available to reproduce our results.

Spatio-temporal reasoning is essential in understanding real-world environments in various fields, eg, autonomous driving and sports analytics. Recent advances have improved the spatial reasoning ability of Vision-Language Models (VLMs) by introducing large-scale data, but these models still struggle to analyze kinematic elements like traveled distance and speed of moving objects. To bridge this gap, we construct a spatio-temporal reasoning dataset and benchmark involving kinematic instruction tuning, referred to as STKit and STKit-Bench. They consist of real-world videos with 3D annotations, detailing object motion dynamics: traveled distance, speed, movement direction, inter-object distance comparisons, and relative movement direction. To further scale such data construction to videos without 3D labels, we propose an automatic pipeline to generate pseudo-labels using 4D reconstruction in real-world scale. With our kinematic instruction tuning data for spatio-temporal reasoning, we present ST-VLM, a VLM enhanced for spatio-temporal reasoning, which exhibits outstanding performance on STKit-Bench. Furthermore, we show that ST-VLM generalizes robustly across diverse domains and tasks, outperforming baselines on other spatio-temporal benchmarks (eg, ActivityNet, TVQA+). Finally, by integrating learned spatio-temporal reasoning with existing abilities, ST-VLM enables complex multi-step reasoning. Project page: https://ikodoh.github.io/ST-VLM.

Spatiotemporal reasoning plays a key role in Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS). Despite advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) and Large Reasoning Models (LRMs), their capacity to reason about complex spatiotemporal signals remains underexplored. This paper proposes a hierarchical SpatioTemporal reAsoning benchmaRK, STARK, to systematically evaluate LLMs across three levels of reasoning complexity: state estimation (e.g., predicting field variables, localizing and tracking events in space and time), spatiotemporal reasoning over states (e.g., inferring spatial-temporal relationships), and world-knowledge-aware reasoning that integrates contextual and domain knowledge (e.g., intent prediction, landmark-aware navigation). We curate 26 distinct spatiotemporal tasks with diverse sensor modalities, comprising 14,552 challenges where models answer directly or by Python Code Interpreter. Evaluating 3 LRMs and 8 LLMs, we find LLMs achieve limited success in tasks requiring geometric reasoning (e.g., multilateration or triangulation), particularly as complexity increases. Surprisingly, LRMs show robust performance across tasks with various levels of difficulty, often competing or surpassing traditional first-principle-based methods. Our results show that in reasoning tasks requiring world knowledge, the performance gap between LLMs and LRMs narrows, with some LLMs even surpassing LRMs. However, the LRM o3 model continues to achieve leading performance across all evaluated tasks, a result attributed primarily to the larger size of the reasoning models. STARK motivates future innovations in model architectures and reasoning paradigms for intelligent CPS by providing a structured framework to identify limitations in the spatiotemporal reasoning of LLMs and LRMs.

Not yet. We present SPACE, a benchmark that systematically evaluates spatial cognition in frontier models. Our benchmark builds on decades of research in cognitive science. It evaluates large-scale mapping abilities that are brought to bear when an organism traverses physical environments, smaller-scale reasoning about object shapes and layouts, and cognitive infrastructure such as spatial attention and memory. For many tasks, we instantiate parallel presentations via text and images, allowing us to benchmark both large language models and large multimodal models. Results suggest that contemporary frontier models fall short of the spatial intelligence of animals, performing near chance level on a number of classic tests of animal cognition.

Recent years have witnessed remarkable advances in spatiotemporal predictive learning, with methods incorporating auxiliary inputs, complex neural architectures, and sophisticated training strategies. While SimVP has introduced a simpler, CNN-based baseline for this task, it still relies on heavy Unet-like architectures for spatial and temporal modeling, which still suffers from high complexity and computational overhead. In this paper, we propose SimVPv2, a streamlined model that eliminates the need for Unet architectures and demonstrates that plain stacks of convolutional layers, enhanced with an efficient Gated Spatiotemporal Attention mechanism, can deliver state-of-the-art performance. SimVPv2 not only simplifies the model architecture but also improves both performance and computational efficiency. On the standard Moving MNIST benchmark, SimVPv2 achieves superior performance compared to SimVP, with fewer FLOPs, about half the training time, and 60% faster inference efficiency. Extensive experiments across eight diverse datasets, including real-world tasks such as traffic forecasting and climate prediction, further demonstrate that SimVPv2 offers a powerful yet straightforward solution, achieving robust generalization across various spatiotemporal learning scenarios. We believe the proposed SimVPv2 can serve as a solid baseline to benefit the spatiotemporal predictive learning community.

Despite advances in generation quality, current text-to-image (T2I) models often lack diversity, generating homogeneous outputs. This work introduces a framework to address the need for robust diversity evaluation in T2I models. Our framework systematically assesses diversity by evaluating individual concepts and their relevant factors of variation. Key contributions include: (1) a novel human evaluation template for nuanced diversity assessment; (2) a curated prompt set covering diverse concepts with their identified factors of variation (e.g. prompt: An image of an apple, factor of variation: color); and (3) a methodology for comparing models in terms of human annotations via binomial tests. Furthermore, we rigorously compare various image embeddings for diversity measurement. Notably, our principled approach enables ranking of T2I models by diversity, identifying categories where they particularly struggle. This research offers a robust methodology and insights, paving the way for improvements in T2I model diversity and metric development.

Long-context video understanding in multimodal large language models (MLLMs) faces a critical challenge: balancing computational efficiency with the retention of fine-grained spatio-temporal patterns. Existing approaches (e.g., sparse sampling, dense sampling with low resolution, and token compression) suffer from significant information loss in temporal dynamics, spatial details, or subtle interactions, particularly in videos with complex motion or varying resolutions. To address this, we propose Mavors, a novel framework that introduces Multi-granularity video representation for holistic long-video modeling. Specifically, Mavors directly encodes raw video content into latent representations through two core components: 1) an Intra-chunk Vision Encoder (IVE) that preserves high-resolution spatial features via 3D convolutions and Vision Transformers, and 2) an Inter-chunk Feature Aggregator (IFA) that establishes temporal coherence across chunks using transformer-based dependency modeling with chunk-level rotary position encodings. Moreover, the framework unifies image and video understanding by treating images as single-frame videos via sub-image decomposition. Experiments across diverse benchmarks demonstrate Mavors' superiority in maintaining both spatial fidelity and temporal continuity, significantly outperforming existing methods in tasks requiring fine-grained spatio-temporal reasoning.

Spatial intelligence (SI) represents a cognitive ability encompassing the visualization, manipulation, and reasoning about spatial relationships, underpinning disciplines from neuroscience to robotics. We introduce SITE, a benchmark dataset towards SI Thorough Evaluation in a standardized format of multi-choice visual question-answering, designed to assess large vision-language models' spatial intelligence across diverse visual modalities (single-image, multi-image, and video) and SI factors (figural to environmental scales, spatial visualization and orientation, intrinsic and extrinsic, static and dynamic). Our approach to curating the benchmark combines a bottom-up survey about 31 existing datasets and a top-down strategy drawing upon three classification systems in cognitive science, which prompt us to design two novel types of tasks about view-taking and dynamic scenes. Extensive experiments reveal that leading models fall behind human experts especially in spatial orientation, a fundamental SI factor. Moreover, we demonstrate a positive correlation between a model's spatial reasoning proficiency and its performance on an embodied AI task.

Bushfires are among the most destructive natural hazards in Australia, causing significant ecological, economic, and social damage. Accurate prediction of bushfire intensity is therefore essential for effective disaster preparedness and response. This study examines the predictive capability of spatio-temporal environmental data for identifying high-risk bushfire zones across Australia. We integrated historical fire events from NASA FIRMS, daily meteorological observations from Meteostat, and vegetation indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from Google Earth Engine for the period 2015-2023. After harmonizing the datasets using spatial and temporal joins, we evaluated several machine learning models, including Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and an ensemble classifier. Under a binary classification framework distinguishing 'low' and 'high' fire risk, the ensemble approach achieved an accuracy of 87%. The results demonstrate that combining multi-source environmental features with advanced machine learning techniques can produce reliable bushfire intensity predictions, supporting more informed and timely disaster management.

Multivariate time series forecasting is essential in domains such as finance, transportation, climate, and energy. However, existing patch-based methods typically adopt fixed-length segmentation, overlooking the heterogeneity of local temporal dynamics and the decoding heterogeneity of forecasting. Such designs lose details in information-dense regions, introduce redundancy in stable segments, and fail to capture the distinct complexities of short-term and long-term horizons. We propose TimeMosaic, a forecasting framework that aims to address temporal heterogeneity. TimeMosaic employs adaptive patch embedding to dynamically adjust granularity according to local information density, balancing motif reuse with structural clarity while preserving temporal continuity. In addition, it introduces segment-wise decoding that treats each prediction horizon as a related subtask and adapts to horizon-specific difficulty and information requirements, rather than applying a single uniform decoder. Extensive evaluations on benchmark datasets demonstrate that TimeMosaic delivers consistent improvements over existing methods, and our model trained on the large-scale corpus with 321 billion observations achieves performance competitive with state-of-the-art TSFMs.

Visualizing multiple time series presents fundamental tradeoffs between scalability and visual clarity. Time series capture the behavior of many large-scale real-world processes, from stock market trends to urban activities. Users often gain insights by visualizing them as line charts, juxtaposing or superposing multiple time series to compare them and identify trends and patterns. However, existing representations struggle with scalability: when covering long time spans, leading to visual clutter from too many small multiples or overlapping lines. We propose TiVy, a new algorithm that summarizes time series using sequential patterns. It transforms the series into a set of symbolic sequences based on subsequence visual similarity using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), then constructs a disjoint grouping of similar subsequences based on the frequent sequential patterns. The grouping result, a visual summary of time series, provides uncluttered superposition with fewer small multiples. Unlike common clustering techniques, TiVy extracts similar subsequences (of varying lengths) aligned in time. We also present an interactive time series visualization that renders large-scale time series in real-time. Our experimental evaluation shows that our algorithm (1) extracts clear and accurate patterns when visualizing time series data, (2) achieves a significant speed-up (1000X) compared to a straightforward DTW clustering. We also demonstrate the efficiency of our approach to explore hidden structures in massive time series data in two usage scenarios.

Pairwise dependence measures such as correlation and causality are fundamental to temporal data mining, yet there is still no principled and robust way to quantify dependence between heterogeneous data types, especially between continuous time series and discrete temporal event sequences. Existing approaches rely on ad hoc transformations or mutual-information estimators that are highly sensitive to quantization, repeated values, and event redundancy, leading to biased or unstable results in practice. We propose a nonparametric mutual information estimator that directly measures the dependence between time series and event sequences without data transformation, learning, or ad hoc discretization. Our method models the continuous-discrete duality of real-world time series to handle quantization and repeated-value artifacts and introduces a latent event clustering strategy to mitigate bias from event co-occurrence and redundancy. Together, these yield a robust and unified framework that bridges discrete and continuous mutual information. We evaluate the proposed estimator on four representative tasks: discrete-continuous time-delayed mutual information for causality analysis, global and local temporal repetition discovery, discrete covariate selection for time series forecasting, and continuous feature selection for classification. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show consistent improvements over existing methods in accuracy, robustness, and interpretability, positioning our approach as a general-purpose dependence operator for heterogeneous temporal data, similar to Pearson correlation for homogeneous time series. Code available at: https://github.com/HaojiHu/Multimodal-Temporal-Data-Quantification

The two fields of urban planning and artificial intelligence (AI) arose and developed separately. However, there is now cross-pollination and increasing interest in both fields to benefit from the advances of the other. In the present paper, we introduce the importance of urban planning from the sustainability, living, economic, disaster, and environmental perspectives. We review the fundamental concepts of urban planning and relate these concepts to crucial open problems of machine learning, including adversarial learning, generative neural networks, deep encoder-decoder networks, conversational AI, and geospatial and temporal machine learning, thereby assaying how AI can contribute to modern urban planning. Thus, a central problem is automated land-use configuration, which is formulated as the generation of land uses and building configuration for a target area from surrounding geospatial, human mobility, social media, environment, and economic activities. Finally, we delineate some implications of AI for urban planning and propose key research areas at the intersection of both topics.

Estimating the geographical range of a species from sparse observations is a challenging and important geospatial prediction problem. Given a set of locations where a species has been observed, the goal is to build a model to predict whether the species is present or absent at any location. This problem has a long history in ecology, but traditional methods struggle to take advantage of emerging large-scale crowdsourced datasets which can include tens of millions of records for hundreds of thousands of species. In this work, we use Spatial Implicit Neural Representations (SINRs) to jointly estimate the geographical range of 47k species simultaneously. We find that our approach scales gracefully, making increasingly better predictions as we increase the number of species and the amount of data per species when training. To make this problem accessible to machine learning researchers, we provide four new benchmarks that measure different aspects of species range estimation and spatial representation learning. Using these benchmarks, we demonstrate that noisy and biased crowdsourced data can be combined with implicit neural representations to approximate expert-developed range maps for many species.

We present a novel and detailed dataset on origin-destination annual migration flows and stocks between 230 countries and regions, spanning the period from 1990 to the present. Our flow estimates are further disaggregated by country of birth, providing a comprehensive picture of migration over the last 35 years. The estimates are obtained by training a deep recurrent neural network to learn flow patterns from 18 covariates for all countries, including geographic, economic, cultural, societal, and political information. The recurrent architecture of the neural network means that the entire past can influence current migration patterns, allowing us to learn long-range temporal correlations. By training an ensemble of neural networks and additionally pushing uncertainty on the covariates through the trained network, we obtain confidence bounds for all our estimates, allowing researchers to pinpoint the geographic regions most in need of additional data collection. We validate our approach on various test sets of unseen data, demonstrating that it significantly outperforms traditional methods estimating five-year flows while delivering a significant increase in temporal resolution. The model is fully open source: all training data, neural network weights, and training code are made public alongside the migration estimates, providing a valuable resource for future studies of human migration.

Effectively modeling long spatiotemporal sequences is challenging due to the need to model complex spatial correlations and long-range temporal dependencies simultaneously. ConvLSTMs attempt to address this by updating tensor-valued states with recurrent neural networks, but their sequential computation makes them slow to train. In contrast, Transformers can process an entire spatiotemporal sequence, compressed into tokens, in parallel. However, the cost of attention scales quadratically in length, limiting their scalability to longer sequences. Here, we address the challenges of prior methods and introduce convolutional state space models (ConvSSM) that combine the tensor modeling ideas of ConvLSTM with the long sequence modeling approaches of state space methods such as S4 and S5. First, we demonstrate how parallel scans can be applied to convolutional recurrences to achieve subquadratic parallelization and fast autoregressive generation. We then establish an equivalence between the dynamics of ConvSSMs and SSMs, which motivates parameterization and initialization strategies for modeling long-range dependencies. The result is ConvS5, an efficient ConvSSM variant for long-range spatiotemporal modeling. ConvS5 significantly outperforms Transformers and ConvLSTM on a long horizon Moving-MNIST experiment while training 3X faster than ConvLSTM and generating samples 400X faster than Transformers. In addition, ConvS5 matches or exceeds the performance of state-of-the-art methods on challenging DMLab, Minecraft and Habitat prediction benchmarks and enables new directions for modeling long spatiotemporal sequences.

Traffic prediction is a typical spatio-temporal data mining task and has great significance to the public transportation system. Considering the demand for its grand application, we recognize key factors for an ideal spatio-temporal prediction method: efficient, lightweight, and effective. However, the current deep model-based spatio-temporal prediction solutions generally own intricate architectures with cumbersome optimization, which can hardly meet these expectations. To accomplish the above goals, we propose an intuitive and novel framework, MLPST, a pure multi-layer perceptron architecture for traffic prediction. Specifically, we first capture spatial relationships from both local and global receptive fields. Then, temporal dependencies in different intervals are comprehensively considered. Through compact and swift MLP processing, MLPST can well capture the spatial and temporal dependencies while requiring only linear computational complexity, as well as model parameters that are more than an order of magnitude lower than baselines. Extensive experiments validated the superior effectiveness and efficiency of MLPST against advanced baselines, and among models with optimal accuracy, MLPST achieves the best time and space efficiency.

Embodied intelligence, a grand challenge in artificial intelligence, is fundamentally constrained by the limited spatial understanding and reasoning capabilities of current models. Prevailing efforts to address this through enhancing Vision-Language Models (VLMs) are trapped in a dilemma: template-based datasets are scalable but structurally rigid, while manual annotation is linguistically diverse but unscalable and, critically, computationally imprecise. We introduce SPRITE, a novel framework that overcomes this dilemma by leveraging simulators and large models to programmatically synthesize scalable, diverse, and high-quality spatial reasoning data. The core innovation of SPRITE is to reframe ground-truth generation as a code-generation task. We utilize LLMs to compile complex spatial questions into executable programs, which are then verified against high-precision scene meta-information extracted from simulators. This ensures our ground truth is both computationally precise and verifiable, while the generative power of LLMs provides vast linguistic diversity. Leveraging this pipeline, we have curated a dataset encompassing 3 simulators, 11k+ scenes, and 300k+ image/video instruction-tuning pairs. We demonstrate that a VLM trained on our data achieves significant performance gains on multiple spatial benchmarks and outperforms other open-source datasets of equivalent size. Furthermore, a scalability analysis confirms our hypothesis that overcoming the low-diversity nature of traditional template methods is essential for building robust, generalizable spatial intelligence. We will make the SPRITE framework code and the full 300k+ dataset publicly available to facilitate future research in spatial intelligence.

Many data have an underlying dependence on spatial location; it may be weather on the Earth, a simulation on a mesh, or a registered image. Yet this feature is rarely taken advantage of, and violates common assumptions made by many neural network layers, such as translation equivariance. Further, many works that do incorporate locality fail to capture fine-grained structure. To address this, we introduce the Spatial Mixture-of-Experts (SMoE) layer, a sparsely-gated layer that learns spatial structure in the input domain and routes experts at a fine-grained level to utilize it. We also develop new techniques to train SMoEs, including a self-supervised routing loss and damping expert errors. Finally, we show strong results for SMoEs on numerous tasks, and set new state-of-the-art results for medium-range weather prediction and post-processing ensemble weather forecasts.

Spatio-temporal modeling is foundational for smart city applications, yet it is often hindered by data scarcity in many cities and regions. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel generative pre-training framework, GPD, for spatio-temporal few-shot learning with urban knowledge transfer. Unlike conventional approaches that heavily rely on common feature extraction or intricate few-shot learning designs, our solution takes a novel approach by performing generative pre-training on a collection of neural network parameters optimized with data from source cities. We recast spatio-temporal few-shot learning as pre-training a generative diffusion model, which generates tailored neural networks guided by prompts, allowing for adaptability to diverse data distributions and city-specific characteristics. GPD employs a Transformer-based denoising diffusion model, which is model-agnostic to integrate with powerful spatio-temporal neural networks. By addressing challenges arising from data gaps and the complexity of generalizing knowledge across cities, our framework consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on multiple real-world datasets for tasks such as traffic speed prediction and crowd flow prediction. The implementation of our approach is available: https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/GPD.

The advent of universal time series forecasting models has revolutionized zero-shot forecasting across diverse domains, yet the critical role of data diversity in training these models remains underexplored. Existing large-scale time series datasets often suffer from inherent biases and imbalanced distributions, leading to suboptimal model performance and generalization. To address this gap, we introduce BLAST, a novel pre-training corpus designed to enhance data diversity through a balanced sampling strategy. First, BLAST incorporates 321 billion observations from publicly available datasets and employs a comprehensive suite of statistical metrics to characterize time series patterns. Then, to facilitate pattern-oriented sampling, the data is implicitly clustered using grid-based partitioning. Furthermore, by integrating grid sampling and grid mixup techniques, BLAST ensures a balanced and representative coverage of diverse patterns. Experimental results demonstrate that models pre-trained on BLAST achieve state-of-the-art performance with a fraction of the computational resources and training tokens required by existing methods. Our findings highlight the pivotal role of data diversity in improving both training efficiency and model performance for the universal forecasting task.

We present a new dataset, Functional Map of the World (fMoW), which aims to inspire the development of machine learning models capable of predicting the functional purpose of buildings and land use from temporal sequences of satellite images and a rich set of metadata features. The metadata provided with each image enables reasoning about location, time, sun angles, physical sizes, and other features when making predictions about objects in the image. Our dataset consists of over 1 million images from over 200 countries. For each image, we provide at least one bounding box annotation containing one of 63 categories, including a "false detection" category. We present an analysis of the dataset along with baseline approaches that reason about metadata and temporal views. Our data, code, and pretrained models have been made publicly available.

Recent advances in vision-language models (VLMs) have made impressive strides in understanding spatio-temporal relationships in videos. However, when spatial information is obscured, these models struggle to capture purely temporal patterns. We introduce SpookyBench, a benchmark where information is encoded solely in temporal sequences of noise-like frames, mirroring natural phenomena from biological signaling to covert communication. Interestingly, while humans can recognize shapes, text, and patterns in these sequences with over 98% accuracy, state-of-the-art VLMs achieve 0% accuracy. This performance gap highlights a critical limitation: an over-reliance on frame-level spatial features and an inability to extract meaning from temporal cues. Furthermore, when trained in data sets with low spatial signal-to-noise ratios (SNR), temporal understanding of models degrades more rapidly than human perception, especially in tasks requiring fine-grained temporal reasoning. Overcoming this limitation will require novel architectures or training paradigms that decouple spatial dependencies from temporal processing. Our systematic analysis shows that this issue persists across model scales and architectures. We release SpookyBench to catalyze research in temporal pattern recognition and bridge the gap between human and machine video understanding. Dataset and code has been made available on our project website: https://timeblindness.github.io/.

Interdisciplinary scientific breakthroughs mostly emerge unexpectedly, and forecasting the formation of novel research fields remains a major challenge. We introduce FOS (Future Of Science), a comprehensive time-aware graph-based benchmark that reconstructs annual co-occurrence graphs of 65,027 research sub-fields (spanning 19 general domains) over the period 1827-2024. In these graphs, edges denote the co-occurrence of two fields in a single publication and are timestamped with the corresponding publication year. Nodes are enriched with semantic embeddings, and edges are characterized by temporal and topological descriptors. We formulate the prediction of new field-pair linkages as a temporal link-prediction task, emphasizing the "first-time" connections that signify pioneering interdisciplinary directions. Through extensive experiments, we evaluate a suite of state-of-the-art temporal graph architectures under multiple negative-sampling regimes and show that (i) embedding long-form textual descriptions of fields significantly boosts prediction accuracy, and (ii) distinct model classes excel under different evaluation settings. Case analyses show that top-ranked link predictions on FOS align with field pairings that emerge in subsequent years of academic publications. We publicly release FOS, along with its temporal data splits and evaluation code, to establish a reproducible benchmark for advancing research in predicting scientific frontiers.

How areas of land are allocated for different uses, such as forests, urban areas, and agriculture, has a large effect on the terrestrial carbon balance, and therefore climate change. Based on available historical data on land-use changes and a simulation of the associated carbon emissions and removals, a surrogate model can be learned that makes it possible to evaluate the different options available to decision-makers efficiently. An evolutionary search process can then be used to discover effective land-use policies for specific locations. Such a system was built on the Project Resilience platform and evaluated with the Land-Use Harmonization dataset LUH2 and the bookkeeping model BLUE. It generates Pareto fronts that trade off carbon impact and amount of land-use change customized to different locations, thus providing a proof-of-concept tool that is potentially useful for land-use planning.

Understanding urban wellbeing from multimodal data requires integrating heterogeneous spatial and temporal signals, posing significant challenges for current multimodal large language models (MLLMs). We introduce UrbanWell, a large-scale benchmark designed to systematically evaluate the spatio-temporal reasoning capabilities of MLLMs for urban wellbeing analytics through joint modeling of satellite and street view imagery. UrbanWell spans 38 cities across multiple years and includes diverse indicators covering (1) environmental conditions (CO_2, NO_2, PM{2.5}, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), (2) spatial accessibility (minimum distance to supermarkets and restaurants), (3) urban form (road length, road density, and land use), (4) urban vitality (population, economic activity diversity, and land use diversity), and (5) subjective perception attributes (e.g., safety, beauty, liveliness, wealth, and quietness). All indicators are aligned at grid level to enable standardized evaluation. Beyond static prediction, UrbanWell defines temporal reasoning tasks, including future value forecasting from historical observations and temporal trend classification. We benchmark 15 state-of-the-art representative MLLMs in a zero-shot setting, providing a comprehensive comparative evaluation across spatial and temporal dimensions. Experimental results indicate that while MLLMs capture salient spatial and perceptual cues, their performance varies substantially across heterogeneous urban indicators spanning environment and subjective perception. UrbanWell serves as a unified benchmark for evaluating multimodal spatial and temporal reasoning in urban wellbeing analytics, offering a standardized testbed for systematic assessment and future research on multimodal urban intelligence. Our codes and datasets are accessible via https://github.com/axin1301/UrbanWell-Benchmark.

Researchers are usually interested in examining the impact of covariates when separating heterogeneous samples into latent classes that are more homogeneous. The majority of theoretical and empirical studies with such aims have focused on identifying covariates as predictors of class membership in the structural equation modeling framework. In other words, the covariates only indirectly affect the sample heterogeneity. However, the covariates' influence on between-individual differences can also be direct. This article presents a mixture model that investigates covariates to explain within-cluster and between-cluster heterogeneity simultaneously, known as a mixture-of-experts (MoE) model. This study aims to extend the MoE framework to investigate heterogeneity in nonlinear trajectories: to identify latent classes, covariates as predictors to clusters, and covariates that explain within-cluster differences in change patterns over time. Our simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed model generally estimates the parameters unbiasedly, precisely and exhibits appropriate empirical coverage for a nominal 95% confidence interval. This study also proposes implementing structural equation model forests to shrink the covariate space of the proposed mixture model. We illustrate how to select covariates and construct the proposed model with longitudinal mathematics achievement data. Additionally, we demonstrate that the proposed mixture model can be further extended in the structural equation modeling framework by allowing the covariates that have direct effects to be time-varying.

Many events occur in the world. Some event types are stochastically excited or inhibited---in the sense of having their probabilities elevated or decreased---by patterns in the sequence of previous events. Discovering such patterns can help us predict which type of event will happen next and when. We model streams of discrete events in continuous time, by constructing a neurally self-modulating multivariate point process in which the intensities of multiple event types evolve according to a novel continuous-time LSTM. This generative model allows past events to influence the future in complex and realistic ways, by conditioning future event intensities on the hidden state of a recurrent neural network that has consumed the stream of past events. Our model has desirable qualitative properties. It achieves competitive likelihood and predictive accuracy on real and synthetic datasets, including under missing-data conditions.

Spatial reasoning ability is crucial for Vision Language Models (VLMs) to support real-world applications in diverse domains including robotics, augmented reality, and autonomous navigation. Unfortunately, existing benchmarks are inadequate in assessing spatial reasoning ability, especially the intrinsic-dynamic spatial reasoning which is a fundamental aspect of human spatial cognition. In this paper, we propose a unified benchmark, Spatial-DISE, based on a cognitively grounded taxonomy that categorizes tasks into four fundamental quadrants: Intrinsic-Static, Intrinsic-Dynamic, Extrinsic-Static, and Extrinsic-Dynamic spatial reasoning. Moreover, to address the issue of data scarcity, we develop a scalable and automated pipeline to generate diverse and verifiable spatial reasoning questions, resulting in a new Spatial-DISE dataset that includes Spatial-DISE Bench (559 evaluation VQA pairs) and Spatial-DISE-12K (12K+ training VQA pairs). Our comprehensive evaluation across 28 state-of-the-art VLMs reveals that, current VLMs have a large and consistent gap to human competence, especially on multi-step multi-view spatial reasoning. Spatial-DISE offers a robust framework, valuable dataset, and clear direction for future research toward human-like spatial intelligence. Benchmark, dataset, and code will be publicly released.

Despite high semantic alignment, modern text-to-image (T2I) generative models still struggle to synthesize diverse images from a given prompt. This lack of diversity not only restricts user choice, but also risks amplifying societal biases. In this work, we enhance the T2I diversity through a geometric lens. Unlike most existing methods that rely primarily on entropy-based guidance to increase sample dissimilarity, we introduce Geometry-Aware Spherical Sampling (GASS) to enhance diversity by explicitly controlling both prompt-dependent and prompt-independent sources of variation. Specifically, we decompose the diversity measure in CLIP embeddings using two orthogonal directions: the text embedding, which captures semantic variation related to the prompt, and an identified orthogonal direction that captures prompt-independent variation (e.g., backgrounds). Based on this decomposition, GASS increases the geometric projection spread of generated image embeddings along both axes and guides the T2I sampling process via expanded predictions along the generation trajectory. Our experiments on different frozen T2I backbones (U-Net and DiT, diffusion and flow) and benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of disentangled diversity enhancement with minimal impact on image fidelity and semantic alignment.

The rapid evolution of scientific fields introduces challenges in organizing and retrieving scientific literature. While expert-curated taxonomies have traditionally addressed this need, the process is time-consuming and expensive. Furthermore, recent automatic taxonomy construction methods either (1) over-rely on a specific corpus, sacrificing generalizability, or (2) depend heavily on the general knowledge of large language models (LLMs) contained within their pre-training datasets, often overlooking the dynamic nature of evolving scientific domains. Additionally, these approaches fail to account for the multi-faceted nature of scientific literature, where a single research paper may contribute to multiple dimensions (e.g., methodology, new tasks, evaluation metrics, benchmarks). To address these gaps, we propose TaxoAdapt, a framework that dynamically adapts an LLM-generated taxonomy to a given corpus across multiple dimensions. TaxoAdapt performs iterative hierarchical classification, expanding both the taxonomy width and depth based on corpus' topical distribution. We demonstrate its state-of-the-art performance across a diverse set of computer science conferences over the years to showcase its ability to structure and capture the evolution of scientific fields. As a multidimensional method, TaxoAdapt generates taxonomies that are 26.51% more granularity-preserving and 50.41% more coherent than the most competitive baselines judged by LLMs.

Neural sequence models are widely used to model time-series data. Equally ubiquitous is the usage of beam search (BS) as an approximate inference algorithm to decode output sequences from these models. BS explores the search space in a greedy left-right fashion retaining only the top-B candidates - resulting in sequences that differ only slightly from each other. Producing lists of nearly identical sequences is not only computationally wasteful but also typically fails to capture the inherent ambiguity of complex AI tasks. To overcome this problem, we propose Diverse Beam Search (DBS), an alternative to BS that decodes a list of diverse outputs by optimizing for a diversity-augmented objective. We observe that our method finds better top-1 solutions by controlling for the exploration and exploitation of the search space - implying that DBS is a better search algorithm. Moreover, these gains are achieved with minimal computational or memory over- head as compared to beam search. To demonstrate the broad applicability of our method, we present results on image captioning, machine translation and visual question generation using both standard quantitative metrics and qualitative human studies. Further, we study the role of diversity for image-grounded language generation tasks as the complexity of the image changes. We observe that our method consistently outperforms BS and previously proposed techniques for diverse decoding from neural sequence models.

Continuous-time event sequences play a vital role in real-world domains such as healthcare, finance, online shopping, social networks, and so on. To model such data, temporal point processes (TPPs) have emerged as the most natural and competitive models, making a significant impact in both academic and application communities. Despite the emergence of many powerful models in recent years, there hasn't been a central benchmark for these models and future research endeavors. This lack of standardization impedes researchers and practitioners from comparing methods and reproducing results, potentially slowing down progress in this field. In this paper, we present EasyTPP, the first central repository of research assets (e.g., data, models, evaluation programs, documentations) in the area of event sequence modeling. Our EasyTPP makes several unique contributions to this area: a unified interface of using existing datasets and adding new datasets; a wide range of evaluation programs that are easy to use and extend as well as facilitate reproducible research; implementations of popular neural TPPs, together with a rich library of modules by composing which one could quickly build complex models. All the data and implementation can be found at https://github.com/ant-research/EasyTemporalPointProcess. We will actively maintain this benchmark and welcome contributions from other researchers and practitioners. Our benchmark will help promote reproducible research in this field, thus accelerating research progress as well as making more significant real-world impacts.

Modeling human mobility is vital for extensive applications such as transportation planning and epidemic modeling. With the rise of the Artificial Intelligence Generated Content (AIGC) paradigm, recent works explore synthetic trajectory generation using autoregressive and diffusion models. While these methods show promise for generating single-day trajectories, they remain limited by inefficiencies in long-term generation (e.g., weekly trajectories) and a lack of explicit spatiotemporal multi-scale modeling. This study proposes Multi-Scale Spatio-Temporal AutoRegression (M-STAR), a new framework that generates long-term trajectories through a coarse-to-fine spatiotemporal prediction process. M-STAR combines a Multi-scale Spatiotemporal Tokenizer that encodes hierarchical mobility patterns with a Transformer-based decoder for next-scale autoregressive prediction. Experiments on two real-world datasets show that M-STAR outperforms existing methods in fidelity and significantly improves generation speed. The data and codes are available at https://github.com/YuxiaoLuo0013/M-STAR.

Time series data in real-world applications such as healthcare, climate modeling, and finance are often irregular, multimodal, and messy, with varying sampling rates, asynchronous modalities, and pervasive missingness. However, existing benchmarks typically assume clean, regularly sampled, unimodal data, creating a significant gap between research and real-world deployment. We introduce Time-IMM, a dataset specifically designed to capture cause-driven irregularity in multimodal multivariate time series. Time-IMM represents nine distinct types of time series irregularity, categorized into trigger-based, constraint-based, and artifact-based mechanisms. Complementing the dataset, we introduce IMM-TSF, a benchmark library for forecasting on irregular multimodal time series, enabling asynchronous integration and realistic evaluation. IMM-TSF includes specialized fusion modules, including a timestamp-to-text fusion module and a multimodality fusion module, which support both recency-aware averaging and attention-based integration strategies. Empirical results demonstrate that explicitly modeling multimodality on irregular time series data leads to substantial gains in forecasting performance. Time-IMM and IMM-TSF provide a foundation for advancing time series analysis under real-world conditions. The dataset is publicly available at https://github.com/blacksnail789521/Time-IMM, and the benchmark library can be accessed at https://github.com/blacksnail789521/IMM-TSF. Project page: https://blacksnail789521.github.io/time-imm-project-page/

Short-term forecasting of vegetation dynamics is a key enabler for data-driven decision support in precision agriculture. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) forecasting from satellite observations, however, remains challenging due to sparse and irregular sampling caused by cloud masking, as well as the heterogeneous climatic conditions under which crops evolve. In this work, we propose a probabilistic forecasting framework for field-level NDVI prediction under sparse, irregular clear-sky acquisitions. The architecture separates the encoding of historical NDVI and meteorological observations from future exogenous covariates, fusing both representations for multi-step quantile prediction. To address irregular revisit patterns and horizon-dependent uncertainty, we introduce a temporal-distance weighted quantile loss that aligns the training objective with the effective forecasting horizon. In addition, we incorporate cumulative and extreme-weather feature engineering to capture delayed meteorological effects relevant to vegetation response. Experiments on European satellite data show that the proposed approach outperforms statistical, deep learning, and time-series baselines on both pointwise and probabilistic evaluation metrics. Ablation studies confirm that target history is the primary driver of performance, with meteorological covariates providing additional gains in the full multimodal setting. The code is available at https://github.com/arco-group/ndvi-forecasting.

Ad-hoc Video Search (AVS) involves using a textual query to search for multiple relevant videos in a large collection of unlabeled short videos. The main challenge of AVS is the visual diversity of relevant videos. A simple query such as "Find shots of a man and a woman dancing together indoors" can span a multitude of environments, from brightly lit halls and shadowy bars to dance scenes in black-and-white animations. It is therefore essential to retrieve relevant videos as comprehensively as possible. Current solutions for the AVS task primarily fuse multiple features into one or more common spaces, yet overlook the need for diverse spaces. To fully exploit the expressive capability of individual features, we propose LPD, short for Learning Partially Decorrelated common spaces. LPD incorporates two key innovations: feature-specific common space construction and the de-correlation loss. Specifically, LPD learns a separate common space for each video and text feature, and employs de-correlation loss to diversify the ordering of negative samples across different spaces. To enhance the consistency of multi-space convergence, we designed an entropy-based fair multi-space triplet ranking loss. Extensive experiments on the TRECVID AVS benchmarks (2016-2023) justify the effectiveness of LPD. Moreover, diversity visualizations of LPD's spaces highlight its ability to enhance result diversity.

Diffusion models have achieved state-of-the-art results on many modalities including images, speech, and video. However, existing models are not tailored to support remote sensing data, which is widely used in important applications including environmental monitoring and crop-yield prediction. Satellite images are significantly different from natural images -- they can be multi-spectral, irregularly sampled across time -- and existing diffusion models trained on images from the Web do not support them. Furthermore, remote sensing data is inherently spatio-temporal, requiring conditional generation tasks not supported by traditional methods based on captions or images. In this paper, we present DiffusionSat, to date the largest generative foundation model trained on a collection of publicly available large, high-resolution remote sensing datasets. As text-based captions are sparsely available for satellite images, we incorporate the associated metadata such as geolocation as conditioning information. Our method produces realistic samples and can be used to solve multiple generative tasks including temporal generation, superresolution given multi-spectral inputs and in-painting. Our method outperforms previous state-of-the-art methods for satellite image generation and is the first large-scale generative foundation model for satellite imagery.

Fine-grained spatio-temporal understanding is essential for video reasoning and embodied AI. Yet, while Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) master static semantics, their grasp of temporal dynamics remains brittle. We present TimeBlind, a diagnostic benchmark for compositional spatio-temporal understanding. Inspired by cognitive science, TimeBlind categorizes fine-grained temporal understanding into three levels: recognizing atomic events, characterizing event properties, and reasoning about event interdependencies. Unlike benchmarks that conflate recognition with temporal reasoning, TimeBlind leverages a minimal-pairs paradigm: video pairs share identical static visual content but differ solely in temporal structure, utilizing complementary questions to neutralize language priors. Evaluating over 20 state-of-the-art MLLMs (e.g., GPT-5, Gemini 3 Pro) on 600 curated instances (2400 video-question pairs), reveals that the Instance Accuracy (correctly distinguishing both videos in a pair) of the best performing MLLM is only 48.2%, far below the human performance (98.2%). These results demonstrate that even frontier models rely heavily on static visual shortcuts rather than genuine temporal logic, positioning TimeBlind as a vital diagnostic tool for next-generation video understanding. Dataset and code are available at https://baiqi-li.github.io/timeblind_project/ .

Conventional urban indicators derived from censuses, surveys, and administrative records are often costly, spatially inconsistent, and slow to update. Recent geospatial foundation models enable Earth embeddings, compact satellite image representations transferable across downstream tasks, but their utility for neighborhood-scale urban monitoring remains unclear. Here, we benchmark three Earth embedding families, AlphaEarth, Prithvi, and Clay, for urban signal prediction across six U.S. metropolitan areas from 2020 to 2023. Using a unified supervised-learning framework, we predict 14 neighborhood-level indicators spanning crime, income, health, and travel behavior, and evaluate performance under four settings: global, city-wise, year-wise, and city-year. Results show that Earth embeddings capture substantial urban variation, with the highest predictive skill for outcomes more directly tied to built-environment structure, including chronic health burdens and dominant commuting modes. By contrast, indicators shaped more strongly by fine-scale behavior and local policy, such as cycling, remain difficult to infer. Predictive performance varies markedly across cities but remains comparatively stable across years, indicating strong spatial heterogeneity alongside temporal robustness. Exploratory analysis suggests that cross-city variation in predictive performance is associated with urban form in task-specific ways. Controlled dimensionality experiments show that representation efficiency is critical: compact 64-dimensional AlphaEarth embeddings remain more informative than 64-dimensional reductions of Prithvi and Clay. This study establishes a benchmark for evaluating Earth embeddings in urban remote sensing and demonstrates their potential as scalable, low-cost features for SDG-aligned neighborhood-scale urban monitoring.

Multi-modal models have achieved remarkable progress in recent years. Nevertheless, they continue to exhibit notable limitations in spatial understanding and reasoning, which are fundamental capabilities to achieving artificial general intelligence. With the recent release of GPT-5, allegedly the most powerful AI model to date, it is timely to examine where the leading models stand on the path toward spatial intelligence. First, we propose a comprehensive taxonomy of spatial tasks that unifies existing benchmarks and discuss the challenges in ensuring fair evaluation. We then evaluate state-of-the-art proprietary and open-source models on eight key benchmarks, at a cost exceeding one billion total tokens. Our empirical study reveals that (1) GPT-5 demonstrates unprecedented strength in spatial intelligence, yet (2) still falls short of human performance across a broad spectrum of tasks. Moreover, we (3) identify the more challenging spatial intelligence problems for multi-modal models, and (4) proprietary models do not exhibit a decisive advantage when facing the most difficult problems. In addition, we conduct a qualitative evaluation across a diverse set of scenarios that are intuitive for humans yet fail even the most advanced multi-modal models.

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) are one of the most devastating climate change induced hazards. Existing remote monitoring approaches often prioritise maximising spatial coverage to train generalistic models or rely on optical imagery hampered by persistent cloud coverage. This paper presents an end-to-end, automated deep learning pipeline for the targeted monitoring of high-risk Himalayan glacial lakes using time-series Sentinel-1 SAR. We introduce a "temporal-first" training strategy, utilising a U-Net with an EfficientNet-B3 backbone trained on a curated dataset of a cohort of 4 lakes (Tsho Rolpa, Chamlang Tsho, Tilicho and Gokyo Lake). The model achieves an IoU of 0.9130 validating the success and efficacy of the "temporal-first" strategy required for transitioning to Early Warning Systems. Beyond the model, we propose an operational engineering architecture: a Dockerised pipeline that automates data ingestion via the ASF Search API and exposes inference results via a RESTful endpoint. This system shifts the paradigm from static mapping to dynamic and automated early warning, providing a scalable architectural foundation for future development in Early Warning Systems.