Daily Papers

We study auto research as a closed empirical loop driven by external measurement. Each submitted trial carries a hypothesis, an executable code edit, an evaluator-owned outcome, and feedback that shapes the next proposal. The output is not a generated paper or a single model checkpoint, but an auditable trajectory of proposals, code diffs, experiments, scores, and failure labels. We instantiate this loop with specialist agents that partition recipe surfaces and share measured lineage across trials. The central empirical finding is that lineage feedback lets agents turn evaluator outcomes, including crashes, budget overruns, size failures, and accuracy-gate misses, into later program-level recipe edits rather than one-shot suggestions. Across 1,197 headline-run trials plus 600 Parameter Golf control trials after one-time setup and launch, humans did not choose proposals, edit recipes, override scores, or repair failed trials during the search. In the three headline runs, the same submitted-trial loop reduces Parameter Golf validation bpb by 0.81%, raises NanoChat-D12 CORE by 38.7%, and reduces CIFAR-10 Airbench96 wallclock by 4.59%, with each task measured by its own external evaluator and legality checks. The trace includes a strict architecture-domain audit of 157 headline-run submissions and program rewrites such as a NanoChat attention-kernel path change. Within this scope the loop autonomously writes code, submits experiments, absorbs feedback, applies and combines known techniques inside each environment, and improves public starting recipes.

Large language models (LLMs) have enabled agent-based systems that aim to automate scientific research workflows. Most existing approaches focus on fully autonomous discovery, where AI systems generate research ideas, conduct analyses, and produce manuscripts with minimal human involvement. However, empirical research in economics and the social sciences poses additional constraints: research questions must be grounded in available datasets, identification strategies require careful design, and human judgment remains essential for evaluating economic significance. We introduce HLER (Human-in-the-Loop Economic Research), a multi-agent architecture that supports empirical research automation while preserving critical human oversight. The system orchestrates specialized agents for data auditing, data profiling, hypothesis generation, econometric analysis, manuscript drafting, and automated review. A key design principle is dataset-aware hypothesis generation, where candidate research questions are constrained by dataset structure, variable availability, and distributional diagnostics, reducing infeasible or hallucinated hypotheses. HLER further implements a two-loop architecture: a question quality loop that screens and selects feasible hypotheses, and a research revision loop where automated review triggers re-analysis and manuscript revision. Human decision gates are embedded at key stages, allowing researchers to guide the automated pipeline. Experiments on three empirical datasets show that dataset-aware hypothesis generation produces feasible research questions in 87% of cases (versus 41% under unconstrained generation), while complete empirical manuscripts can be produced at an average API cost of 0.8-1.5 per run. These results suggest that Human-AI collaborative pipelines may provide a practical path toward scalable empirical research.

Feedforward steering control is a key component of hierarchical control architectures for autonomous racing. The goal is to reduce steering corrections from the feedback controllers by predicting the vehicle's inverse lateral dynamics. This paper presents a systematic benchmark of two learning-based and two empirical (analytical) feedforward steering controllers. We introduce a new ehd formulation based on a polynomial surface fit that captures velocity-dependent nonlinear steering behavior with minimal parametrization. We test the feedforward controllers in a high-fidelity simulation framework based on the real-world Abu Dhabi Autonomous Racing League competition, using a high-fidelity double-track vehicle dynamics simulator. Open-loop evaluation shows that the learning-based controllers achieve the lowest prediction errors; however, closed-loop testing reveals that this improved accuracy does not translate into superior path tracking performance or lap times, even after iterative fine-tuning. In contrast, the proposed EHD approach achieves the best overall closed-loop robustness and lap time, highlighting the necessity of evaluating feedforward strategies within the complete trajectory planning and control software stack. Our code is available at https://github.com/TUMRT/steering_ff_control.

Recent advances in visual reasoning have leveraged vision transformers to tackle the ARC-AGI benchmark. However, we argue that the feed-forward architecture, where computational depth is strictly bound to parameter size, falls short of capturing the iterative, algorithmic nature of human induction. In this work, we propose a recursive architecture called Loop-ViT, which decouples reasoning depth from model capacity through weight-tied recurrence. Loop-ViT iterates a weight-tied Hybrid Block, combining local convolutions and global attention, to form a latent chain of thought. Crucially, we introduce a parameter-free Dynamic Exit mechanism based on predictive entropy: the model halts inference when its internal state ``crystallizes" into a low-uncertainty attractor. Empirical results on the ARC-AGI-1 benchmark validate this perspective: our 18M model achieves 65.8% accuracy, outperforming massive 73M-parameter ensembles. These findings demonstrate that adaptive iterative computation offers a far more efficient scaling axis for visual reasoning than simply increasing network width. The code is available at https://github.com/WenjieShu/LoopViT.

Positional embeddings (PE) play a crucial role in Vision Transformers (ViTs) by providing spatial information otherwise lost due to the permutation invariant nature of self attention. While absolute positional embeddings (APE) have shown theoretical advantages over relative positional embeddings (RPE), particularly due to the ability of sinusoidal functions to preserve spatial inductive biases like monotonicity and shift invariance, a fundamental challenge arises when mapping a 2D grid to a 1D sequence. Existing methods have mostly overlooked or never explored the impact of patch ordering in positional embeddings. To address this, we propose LOOPE, a learnable patch-ordering method that optimizes spatial representation for a given set of frequencies, providing a principled approach to patch order optimization. Empirical results show that our PE significantly improves classification accuracy across various ViT architectures. To rigorously evaluate the effectiveness of positional embeddings, we introduce the "Three Cell Experiment", a novel benchmarking framework that assesses the ability of PEs to retain relative and absolute positional information across different ViT architectures. Unlike standard evaluations, which typically report a performance gap of 4 to 6% between models with and without PE, our method reveals a striking 30 to 35% difference, offering a more sensitive diagnostic tool to measure the efficacy of PEs. Our experimental analysis confirms that the proposed LOOPE demonstrates enhanced effectiveness in retaining both relative and absolute positional information.

Inference-time scaling strategies, particularly Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), have significantly enhanced the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, current approaches remain predominantly stateless, discarding successful reasoning patterns after each problem instance and failing to mimic the empirical accumulation of wisdom characteristic of human problem-solving. To bridge this gap, we introduce Empirical-MCTS, a dual-loop framework that transforms stateless search into a continuous, non-parametric learning process. The framework unifies local exploration with global memory optimization through two novel mechanisms: Pairwise-Experience-Evolutionary Meta-Prompting (PE-EMP) and a Memory Optimization Agent. PE-EMP functions as a reflexive optimizer within the local search, utilizing pairwise feedback to dynamically synthesize adaptive criteria and evolve meta-prompts (system prompts) in real-time. Simultaneously, the Memory Optimization Agent manages a global repository as a dynamic policy prior, employing atomic operations to distill high-quality insights across problems. Extensive evaluations on complex reasoning benchmarks, including AIME25, ARC-AGI-2, and MathArena Apex, demonstrate that Empirical-MCTS significantly outperforms both stateless MCTS strategies and standalone experience-driven agents. These results underscore the critical necessity of coupling structured search with empirical accumulation for mastering complex, open-ended reasoning tasks.

The construction of Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) datasets is a critical yet under-theorized stage in the post-training of Large Language Models (LLMs), as prevalent practices often rely on heuristic aggregation without a systematic understanding of how individual samples contribute to model performance. In this report, we propose a paradigm shift from ad-hoc curation to a closed-loop dataset engineering framework using OpenDataArena (ODA), which leverages value-anchored rankings and multi-dimensional analysis to transform value benchmarking into feedback signals guiding dataset construction. We instantiate this methodology through two new datasets: ODA-Math-460k, a specialized mathematics reasoning dataset that utilizes a novel two-stage difficulty-aware pipeline to achieve State-of-the-Art (SOTA) results on benchmarks such as AIME and HMMT, and ODA-Mixture (100k \& 500k), a series of multi-domain instruction datasets built via an ``Anchor-and-Patch'' strategy that outperforms significantly larger open-source baselines. Our empirical results demonstrate that ODA-driven datasets significantly improve both domain-specific reasoning and general utility while achieving superior data efficiency, validating a transition toward data-centric AI where transparent evaluation serves as the primary engine for engineering high-quality training data.

Understanding the topology of decision regions is central to explaining the inner workings of deep neural networks. Prior empirical work has provided evidence that these regions are path connected. We study a stronger topological question: whether closed loops inside a decision region can be contracted without leaving that region. To this end, we propose an iterative quad-mesh filling procedure that constructs a finite-resolution label-preserving surface bounded by a given loop and lying entirely within the same decision region. We further connect this construction to natural Coons patches in order to quantify its deviation from a canonical geometric interpolation of the loop. By evaluating our method across several modern image-classification models, we provide empirical evidence supporting the hypothesis that decision regions in deep neural networks are not only path connected, but also simply connected.

From the invention of writing and the printing press, to television and social media, human history is punctuated by major innovations in communication technology, which fundamentally altered how ideas spread and reshaped our culture. Recent chatbots powered by generative artificial intelligence constitute a novel medium that encodes cultural patterns in their neural representations and disseminates them in conversations with hundreds of millions of people. Understanding whether these patterns transmit into human language, and ultimately shape human culture, is a fundamental question. While fully quantifying the causal impact of a chatbot like ChatGPT on human culture is very challenging, lexicographic shift in human spoken communication may offer an early indicator of such broad phenomenon. Here, we apply econometric causal inference techniques to 740,249 hours of human discourse from 360,445 YouTube academic talks and 771,591 conversational podcast episodes across multiple disciplines. We detect a measurable and abrupt increase in the use of words preferentially generated by ChatGPT, such as delve, comprehend, boast, swift, and meticulous, after its release. These findings suggest a scenario where machines, originally trained on human data and subsequently exhibiting their own cultural traits, can, in turn, measurably reshape human culture. This marks the beginning of a closed cultural feedback loop in which cultural traits circulate bidirectionally between humans and machines. Our results motivate further research into the evolution of human-machine culture, and raise concerns over the erosion of linguistic and cultural diversity, and the risks of scalable manipulation.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into software development workflows, yet their behavior in structured, specification-driven processes remains poorly understood. This paper presents an empirical study design using CURRANTE, a Visual Studio Code extension that enables a human-in-the-loop workflow for LLM-assisted code generation. The tool guides developers through three sequential stages--Specification, Tests, and Function--allowing them to define requirements, generate and refine test suites, and produce functions that satisfy those tests. Participants will solve medium-difficulty problems from the LiveCodeBench dataset, while the tool records fine-grained interaction logs, effectiveness metrics (e.g., pass rate, all-pass completion), efficiency indicators (e.g., time-to-pass), and iteration behaviors. The study aims to analyze how human intervention in specification and test refinement influences the quality and dynamics of LLM-generated code. The results will provide empirical insights into the design of next-generation development environments that align human reasoning with model-driven code generation.

Large Language Models (LLMs) often exhibit a gap between their internal knowledge and their explicit linguistic outputs. In this report, we empirically investigate whether Looped Transformers (LTs)--architectures that increase computational depth by iterating shared layers--can bridge this gap by utilizing their iterative nature as a form of introspection. Our experiments reveal that while increasing loop iterations narrows the gap, it is partly driven by a degradation of their internal knowledge carried by representations. Moreover, another empirical analysis suggests that current LTs' ability to perceive representations does not improve across loops; it is only present in the final loop. These results suggest that while LTs offer a promising direction for scaling computational depth, they have yet to achieve the introspection required to truly link representation space and natural language.

Capture The Flag (CTF) challenges are puzzles related to computer security scenarios. With the advent of large language models (LLMs), more and more CTF participants are using LLMs to understand and solve the challenges. However, so far no work has evaluated the effectiveness of LLMs in solving CTF challenges with a fully automated workflow. We develop two CTF-solving workflows, human-in-the-loop (HITL) and fully-automated, to examine the LLMs' ability to solve a selected set of CTF challenges, prompted with information about the question. We collect human contestants' results on the same set of questions, and find that LLMs achieve higher success rate than an average human participant. This work provides a comprehensive evaluation of the capability of LLMs in solving real world CTF challenges, from real competition to fully automated workflow. Our results provide references for applying LLMs in cybersecurity education and pave the way for systematic evaluation of offensive cybersecurity capabilities in LLMs.

Looped Transformers (LT) have emerged as a powerful architecture by iterating their layers multiple times before decoding the final token. However, pairing them with full attention retains quadratic complexity, making them computationally expensive and slow. We introduce LT2 (Linear-Time Looped Transformers), a family of looped architectures that replace quadratic softmax attention with subquadratic, linear-time attention. We study two variants: LT2-linear with linear attention and LT2-sparse with sparse attention. We find that looping uniquely synergizes with these variants: it enables iterative memory refinement in linear attention and progressively expands the effective receptive field in sparse attention. We formalize these benefits theoretically and demonstrate consistent empirical gains across controlled recall, state-tracking, and language modeling tasks. We then explore LT2-hybrid, which combines different attention variants in a looped setting. Two variants are especially promising: LT2-hybrid (GDN+DSA), which interleaves linear and sparse attention to maximize efficiency and matches the standard looped transformer's quality at fully linear-time cost; and LT2-hybrid (Full+GDN), which interleaves GDN with a small fraction of full attention layers to maximize quality, surpassing the standard looped transformer in both performance and efficiency. We also show how to convert a pre-trained LT into an LT2-hybrid model. With about 1B tokens of training, our converted model, Ouro-hybrid-1.4B, outperforms industry-level 1B models and is competitive with industry-level 4B models while retaining the speed benefits of linear-time attention. Together, these results show a clear path toward making looped transformers more scalable and advancing efficient, capable small language models.

Besides natural language processing, transformers exhibit extraordinary performance in solving broader applications, including scientific computing and computer vision. Previous works try to explain this from the expressive power and capability perspectives that standard transformers are capable of performing some algorithms. To empower transformers with algorithmic capabilities and motivated by the recently proposed looped transformer (Yang et al., 2024; Giannou et al., 2023), we design a novel transformer block, dubbed Algorithm Transformer (abbreviated as AlgoFormer). Compared with the standard transformer and vanilla looped transformer, the proposed AlgoFormer can achieve significantly higher expressiveness in algorithm representation when using the same number of parameters. In particular, inspired by the structure of human-designed learning algorithms, our transformer block consists of a pre-transformer that is responsible for task pre-processing, a looped transformer for iterative optimization algorithms, and a post-transformer for producing the desired results after post-processing. We provide theoretical evidence of the expressive power of the AlgoFormer in solving some challenging problems, mirroring human-designed algorithms. Furthermore, some theoretical and empirical results are presented to show that the designed transformer has the potential to be smarter than human-designed algorithms. Experimental results demonstrate the empirical superiority of the proposed transformer in that it outperforms the standard transformer and vanilla looped transformer in some challenging tasks.

This preprint presents an empirical analysis of byte-exact chunk-level deduplication in Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) pipelines. We measure context reduction across three distinct operating regimes: clean academic retrieval (0.16% byte reduction on 22.2M BeIR passages), constructed enterprise patterns (24.03% reduction), and multi-turn conversational AI (80.34% reduction). To validate quality preservation, we conducted a cross-vendor 5-judge calibrated panel evaluation across four production APIs (Google Gemini 2.5 Flash, Anthropic Claude Sonnet 4.6, Meta Llama 3.3 70B, and OpenAI GPT-5.1). Applying a five-category human-in-the-loop noise-removal protocol to panel-majority materially different (MAT) pairs, we establish that byte-exact deduplication introduces zero measurable quality regression. Post-audit, all four vendors clear the strict <5% Wilson 95% upper-bound MAT threshold in both the clean and high-redundancy RAG regimes. This work demonstrates that substantial inference compute savings can be achieved deterministically without compromising evaluation-grade model quality.

LLM-agent budget overruns are a documented production failure class: a single retry loop can spend thousands of dollars before an operator notices, and the in-process integrity properties that would prevent it (no aliasing, no double-spend, no use-after-delegation of a cost-bearing value) are enforced, if at all, by ad-hoc wrappers rather than by the type system. Our central contribution is empirical: a catalog of 63 confirmed production incidents from 21 orchestration frameworks (2023-2026), each backed by a quoted GitHub issue and, where reported, a dollar loss, organized into an eight-cluster failure taxonomy (inter-rater Cohen's kappa = 0.837, N = 113), plus 47 supplementary structural entries. As one mitigation evaluated against this taxonomy, we build token-budgets, an 1,180-line Rust crate (no unsafe) that operationalizes affine ownership so that cloning, double-spending, or using a budget after delegating it are compile errors rather than runtime hazards an operator must remember to avoid. The dollar cap is runtime arithmetic under an estimator assumption; the affine layer makes that arithmetic non-bypassable. On single-agent workloads a 4-line Python counter matches the crate at 0/30 overshoot, so the distinguishing value is non-bypassability under operator error in multi-agent delegation: the delegation-fanout race documented in 11 incidents is rejected by the borrow checker at compile time, while the same pattern under asyncio overshoots 30/30 and three disciplined alternatives overshoot 0/30. Across five runtimes, three providers, and a temperature-stratified live-API test (N = 160), the approach reports zero cap violations and zero false refusals, at operational parity with concurrent work. Static over-reservation is 4-6x (2.11x adaptive). Binary-level cap-soundness on the running binary is left open.

Solving the inverse problem is the key step in evaluating the capacity of a physical model to describe real phenomena. In medical image computing, it aligns with the classical theme of image-based model personalization. Traditionally, a solution to the problem is obtained by performing either sampling or variational inference based methods. Both approaches aim to identify a set of free physical model parameters that results in a simulation best matching an empirical observation. When applied to brain tumor modeling, one of the instances of image-based model personalization in medical image computing, the overarching drawback of the methods is the time complexity for finding such a set. In a clinical setting with limited time between imaging and diagnosis or even intervention, this time complexity may prove critical. As the history of quantitative science is the history of compression, we align in this paper with the historical tendency and propose a method compressing complex traditional strategies for solving an inverse problem into a simple database query task. We evaluated different ways of performing the database query task assessing the trade-off between accuracy and execution time. On the exemplary task of brain tumor growth modeling, we prove that the proposed method achieves one order speed-up compared to existing approaches for solving the inverse problem. The resulting compute time offers critical means for relying on more complex and, hence, realistic models, for integrating image preprocessing and inverse modeling even deeper, or for implementing the current model into a clinical workflow.

Revision is an essential part of the human writing process. It tends to be strategic, adaptive, and, more importantly, iterative in nature. Despite the success of large language models on text revision tasks, they are limited to non-iterative, one-shot revisions. Examining and evaluating the capability of large language models for making continuous revisions and collaborating with human writers is a critical step towards building effective writing assistants. In this work, we present a human-in-the-loop iterative text revision system, Read, Revise, Repeat (R3), which aims at achieving high quality text revisions with minimal human efforts by reading model-generated revisions and user feedbacks, revising documents, and repeating human-machine interactions. In R3, a text revision model provides text editing suggestions for human writers, who can accept or reject the suggested edits. The accepted edits are then incorporated into the model for the next iteration of document revision. Writers can therefore revise documents iteratively by interacting with the system and simply accepting/rejecting its suggested edits until the text revision model stops making further revisions or reaches a predefined maximum number of revisions. Empirical experiments show that R3 can generate revisions with comparable acceptance rate to human writers at early revision depths, and the human-machine interaction can get higher quality revisions with fewer iterations and edits. The collected human-model interaction dataset and system code are available at https://github.com/vipulraheja/IteraTeR. Our system demonstration is available at https://youtu.be/lK08tIpEoaE.

In this position paper, we observe that empirical evaluation in Generative AI is at a crisis point since traditional ML evaluation and benchmarking strategies are insufficient to meet the needs of evaluating modern GenAI models and systems. There are many reasons for this, including the fact that these models typically have nearly unbounded input and output spaces, typically do not have a well defined ground truth target, and typically exhibit strong feedback loops and prediction dependence based on context of previous model outputs. On top of these critical issues, we argue that the problems of {\em leakage} and {\em contamination} are in fact the most important and difficult issues to address for GenAI evaluations. Interestingly, the field of AI Competitions has developed effective measures and practices to combat leakage for the purpose of counteracting cheating by bad actors within a competition setting. This makes AI Competitions an especially valuable (but underutilized) resource. Now is time for the field to view AI Competitions as the gold standard for empirical rigor in GenAI evaluation, and to harness and harvest their results with according value.

LLM-powered coding agents, which operate in iterative loops (turns) to solve software engineering tasks, are becoming increasingly powerful. However, their practical deployment is hindered by significant and unpredictable costs. This challenge arises from a combination of factors: quadratically growing token counts with each turn, the high price of models, the large number of turns required for real-world tasks, and the tendency of agents to take inefficient or unnecessary actions. While existing research focuses on optimizing individual turns, the strategic control of the total number of turns remains an underexplored area for managing agent performance and cost. To address this gap, we conduct a comprehensive empirical study on SWE-bench using three state-of-the-art models and evaluate the impact of three distinct turn-control strategies: an unrestricted baseline, a fixed-turn limit with reminders, and a novel dynamic-turn strategy that grants extensions on-demand. Our findings first reveal a fundamental trade-off in the unrestricted setting, where no single model excels across performance, cost, and turn efficiency. We then show that a fixed-turn limit, specifically at the 75th percentile of the baseline, serves as a "sweet spot", substantially reducing costs (by 24%-68%) with minimal impact on solve rates. Most significantly, the dynamic-turn strategy consistently outperforms fixed-limit approaches, achieving comparable or better solve rates while further reducing costs by an additional 12%-24% by intelligently allocating resources only to tasks that need them. This work provides the first systematic analysis of turn-control strategies, offering simple yet effective guidelines for developers to balance cost and efficacy. We demonstrate that dynamic resource allocation is a superior, easy-to-implement approach for deploying powerful yet economically viable coding agents.

Large language models have shown remarkable reasoning abilities and scaling laws suggest that large parameter count, especially along the depth axis, is the primary driver. In this work, we make a stronger claim -- many reasoning problems require a large depth but not necessarily many parameters. This unlocks a novel application of looped models for reasoning. Firstly, we show that for many synthetic reasoning problems like addition, p-hop induction, and math problems, a k-layer transformer looped L times nearly matches the performance of a kL-layer non-looped model, and is significantly better than a k-layer model. This is further corroborated by theoretical results showing that many such reasoning problems can be solved via iterative algorithms, and thus, can be solved effectively using looped models with nearly optimal depth. Perhaps surprisingly, these benefits also translate to practical settings of language modeling -- on many downstream reasoning tasks, a language model with k-layers looped L times can be competitive to, if not better than, a kL-layer language model. In fact, our empirical analysis reveals an intriguing phenomenon: looped and non-looped models exhibit scaling behavior that depends on their effective depth, akin to the inference-time scaling of chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning. We further elucidate the connection to CoT reasoning by proving that looped models implicitly generate latent thoughts and can simulate T steps of CoT with T loops. Inspired by these findings, we also present an interesting dichotomy between reasoning and memorization, and design a looping-based regularization that is effective on both fronts.

The execution of graph algorithms using neural networks has recently attracted significant interest due to promising empirical progress. This motivates further understanding of how neural networks can replicate reasoning steps with relational data. In this work, we study the ability of transformer networks to simulate algorithms on graphs from a theoretical perspective. The architecture that we utilize is a looped transformer with extra attention heads that interact with the graph. We prove by construction that this architecture can simulate algorithms such as Dijkstra's shortest path algorithm, Breadth- and Depth-First Search, and Kosaraju's strongly connected components algorithm. The width of the network does not increase with the size of the input graph, which implies that the network can simulate the above algorithms for any graph. Despite this property, we show that there is a limit to simulation in our solution due to finite precision. Finally, we show a Turing Completeness result with constant width when the extra attention heads are utilized.

The dominant paradigm for building LLM based agents is the Agent Loop, an iterative cycle where a single language model decides what to do next by reading an ever growing context window. This paradigm has three structural weaknesses: implicit dependencies between steps, unbounded recovery loops, and mutable execution history that complicates debugging. We characterize the Agent Loop as a single ready unit scheduler: at any moment, at most one executable unit is active, and the choice of which unit to activate comes from opaque LLM inference rather than an inspectable policy. This perspective places Agent Loops and graph based execution engines on a single semantic continuum. We propose SGH, Structured Graph Harness, which lifts control flow from implicit context into an explicit static DAG. SGH makes three commitments: execution plans are immutable within a plan version, planning execution and recovery are separated into three layers, and recovery follows a strict escalation protocol. These choices trade some expressiveness for controllability, verifiability, and implementability. Our contributions are fourfold: a scheduler unified framework that applies classical scheduling theory to LLM agent execution and identifies challenges introduced by non deterministic LLM nodes; a trade off analysis of controllability, expressiveness, and implementability across 70 surveyed systems; a formal specification including a node state machine with termination and soundness guarantees; and an attributable experimental framework with a seven group design for future validation. This is a position paper and design proposal. We provide a theoretical framework, design analysis, and experimental protocol, not a production implementation or empirical results.

The advent of automation in particular Software Engineering (SE) tasks has transitioned from theory to reality. Numerous scholarly articles have documented the successful application of Artificial Intelligence to address issues in areas such as project management, modeling, testing, and development. A recent innovation is the introduction of ChatGPT, an ML-infused chatbot, touted as a resource proficient in generating programming codes and formulating software testing strategies for developers and testers respectively. Although there is speculation that AI-based computation can increase productivity and even substitute software engineers in software development, there is currently a lack of empirical evidence to verify this. Moreover, despite the primary focus on enhancing the accuracy of AI systems, non-functional requirements including energy efficiency, vulnerability, fairness (i.e., human bias), and safety frequently receive insufficient attention. This paper posits that a comprehensive comparison of software engineers and AI-based solutions, considering various evaluation criteria, is pivotal in fostering human-machine collaboration, enhancing the reliability of AI-based methods, and understanding task suitability for humans or AI. Furthermore, it facilitates the effective implementation of cooperative work structures and human-in-the-loop processes. This paper conducts an empirical investigation, contrasting the performance of software engineers and AI systems, like ChatGPT, across different evaluation metrics. The empirical study includes a case of assessing ChatGPT-generated code versus code produced by developers and uploaded in Leetcode.

Context. LLM-based autonomous agents in software engineering rely on large, proprietary models, limiting local deployment. This has spurred interest in Small Language Models (SLMs), but their practical effectiveness and efficiency within complex agentic frameworks for automated issue resolution remain poorly understood. Goal. We investigate the performance, energy efficiency, and resource consumption of four leading agentic issue resolution frameworks when deliberately constrained to using SLMs. We aim to assess the viability of these systems for this task in resource-limited settings and characterize the resulting trade-offs. Method. We conduct a controlled evaluation of four leading agentic frameworks (SWE-Agent, OpenHands, Mini SWE Agent, AutoCodeRover) using two SLMs (Gemma-3 4B, Qwen-3 1.7B) on the SWE-bench Verified Mini benchmark. On fixed hardware, we measure energy, duration, token usage, and memory over 150 runs per configuration. Results. We find that framework architecture is the primary driver of energy consumption. The most energy-intensive framework, AutoCodeRover (Gemma), consumed 9.4x more energy on average than the least energy-intensive, OpenHands (Gemma). However, this energy is largely wasted. Task resolution rates were near-zero, demonstrating that current frameworks, when paired with SLMs, consume significant energy on unproductive reasoning loops. The SLM's limited reasoning was the bottleneck for success, but the framework's design was the bottleneck for efficiency. Conclusions. Current agentic frameworks, designed for powerful LLMs, fail to operate efficiently with SLMs. We find that framework architecture is the primary driver of energy consumption, but this energy is largely wasted due to the SLMs' limited reasoning. Viable low-energy solutions require shifting from passive orchestration to architectures that actively manage SLM weaknesses.

In this paper, we investigate the effectiveness of state-of-the-art LLM, i.e., GPT-4, with three different prompting engineering techniques (i.e., basic prompting, in-context learning, and task-specific prompting) against 18 fine-tuned LLMs on three typical ASE tasks, i.e., code generation, code summarization, and code translation. Our quantitative analysis of these prompting strategies suggests that prompt engineering GPT-4 cannot necessarily and significantly outperform fine-tuning smaller/older LLMs in all three tasks. For comment generation, GPT-4 with the best prompting strategy (i.e., task-specific prompt) had outperformed the first-ranked fine-tuned model by 8.33% points on average in BLEU. However, for code generation, the first-ranked fine-tuned model outperforms GPT-4 with best prompting by 16.61% and 28.3% points, on average in BLEU. For code translation, GPT-4 and fine-tuned baselines tie as they outperform each other on different translation tasks. To explore the impact of different prompting strategies, we conducted a user study with 27 graduate students and 10 industry practitioners. From our qualitative analysis, we find that the GPT-4 with conversational prompts (i.e., when a human provides feedback and instructions back and forth with a model to achieve best results) showed drastic improvement compared to GPT-4 with automatic prompting strategies. Moreover, we observe that participants tend to request improvements, add more context, or give specific instructions as conversational prompts, which goes beyond typical and generic prompting strategies. Our study suggests that, at its current state, GPT-4 with conversational prompting has great potential for ASE tasks, but fully automated prompt engineering with no human in the loop requires more study and improvement.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have led to strong reasoning capabilities; however, evaluating such models in low-resource languages remains challenging due to the lack of standardized benchmarks. In particular, Urdu reasoning evaluation has been limited by the sensitivity of machine translation and an emphasis on general language tasks rather than reasoning benchmarks. In this paper, we propose a contextually ensembled translation framework with human-in-the-loop validation that leverages multiple translation systems to develop Urdu reasoning benchmarks while preserving contextual and structural integrity. Using this framework, we translate widely adopted reasoning and question-answering benchmarks, including MGSM, MATH-500, CommonSenseQA, and OpenBookQA, into Urdu, collectively referred to as UrduBench, and conduct a comprehensive evaluation of both reasoning-oriented and instruction-tuned LLMs across multiple prompting strategies. Our analysis reveals performance differences across (1) four datasets, (2) five task difficulty levels, (3) diverse model architectures, (4) multiple model scaling settings, and (5) language consistency tests. We find that multi-step and symbolic reasoning tasks pose significant challenges in Urdu, and that stable language alignment is a critical prerequisite for robust reasoning. Overall, our work establishes a scalable methodology for standardized reasoning evaluation in Urdu and provides empirical insights into multilingual reasoning failures. This experimental setup is also broadly applicable to other low-resource languages. The code and datasets will be publicly released.

This paper documents and theorises a self-reinforcing dynamic between two measurable trends: the exponential expansion of large language model (LLM) context windows and the secular contraction of human sustained-attention capacity. We term the resulting asymmetry the Cognitive Divergence. AI context windows have grown from 512 tokens in 2017 to 2,000,000 tokens by 2026 (factor ~3,906; fitted lambda = 0.59/yr; doubling time ~14 months). Over the same period, human Effective Context Span (ECS) -- a token-equivalent measure derived from validated reading-rate meta-analysis (Brysbaert, 2019) and an empirically motivated Comprehension Scaling Factor -- has declined from approximately 16,000 tokens (2004 baseline) to an estimated 1,800 tokens (2026, extrapolated from longitudinal behavioural data ending 2020 (Mark, 2023); see Section 9 for uncertainty discussion). The AI-to-human ratio grew from near parity at the ChatGPT launch (November 2022) to 556--1,111x raw and 56--111x quality-adjusted, after accounting for retrieval degradation (Liu et al., 2024; Chroma, 2025). Beyond documenting this divergence, the paper introduces the Delegation Feedback Loop hypothesis: as AI capability grows, the cognitive threshold at which humans delegate to AI falls, extending to tasks of negligible demand; the resulting reduction in cognitive practice may further attenuate the capacities already documented as declining (Gerlich, 2025; Kim et al., 2026; Kosmyna et al., 2025). Neither trend reverses spontaneously. The paper characterises the divergence statistically, reviews neurobiological mechanisms across eight peer-reviewed neuroimaging studies, presents empirical evidence bearing on the delegation threshold, and proposes a research agenda centred on a validated ECS psychometric instrument and longitudinal study of AI-mediated cognitive change.

This work presents a general framework for training large language models (LLMs) to "Connect the Dots" (CoD), a meta-capability required by long-lifecycle agents: as an LLM-based AI agent gets deployed in an environment, it solves a long sequence of tasks while continuously exploring the environment, learning from its own experiences, and iteratively self-updating its context about the environment, thereby achieving progressively better performance on future tasks conditioned on the updated context. Major components of the CoD framework include: (1) algorithm design and infrastructure for end-to-end reinforcement learning (RL) with long rollout sequences interleaving solve-task and update-context episodes; (2) tasks and environments for incentivizing and eliciting the targeted meta-capability in LLMs during training, as well as for faithfully measuring progress during evaluation. We present proof-of-concept implementations of the CoD framework, including a GRPO-style RL algorithm with fine-grained credit assignment, as well as tasks and environments tailored to the targeted meta-capability (rather than domain-specific LLM capabilities or standard task-by-task RL). Empirical results validate the efficacy of end-to-end RL training in the CoD setting, and demonstrate the potential for out-of-distribution generalization -- within the training domains, across different domains, and from CoD to Ralph-loop settings -- of the elicited meta-capability. Our investigation of CoD connects several lines of prior works, and opens up new opportunities for advancing LLMs and AI agents. To facilitate further research and applications, we release our implementations at https://github.com/agentscope-ai/Trinity-RFT/tree/research/cod/examples/research_cod.

Software testing has progressed toward intelligent automation, yet current AI-based test generators still suffer from static, single-shot outputs that frequently produce invalid, redundant, or non-executable tests due to the lack of execution aware feedback. This paper introduces an agentic multi-model testing framework a closed-loop, self-correcting system in which a Test Generation Agent, an Execution and Analysis Agent, and a Review and Optimization Agent collaboratively generate, execute, analyze, and refine tests until convergence. By using sandboxed execution, detailed failure reporting, and iterative regeneration or patching of failing tests, the framework autonomously improves test quality and expands coverage. Integrated into a CI/CD-compatible pipeline, it leverages reinforcement signals from coverage metrics and execution outcomes to guide refinement. Empirical evaluations on microservice based applications show up to a 60% reduction in invalid tests, 30% coverage improvement, and significantly reduced human effort compared to single-model baselines demonstrating that multi-agent, feedback-driven loops can evolve software testing into an autonomous, continuously learning quality assurance ecosystem for self-healing, high-reliability codebases.

Conformal prediction (CP) offers distribution-free uncertainty quantification for machine learning models, yet its interplay with fairness in downstream decision-making remains underexplored. Moving beyond CP as a standalone operation (procedural fairness), we analyze the holistic decision-making pipeline to evaluate substantive fairness-the equity of downstream outcomes. Theoretically, we derive an upper bound that decomposes prediction-set size disparity into interpretable components, clarifying how label-clustered CP helps control method-driven contributions to unfairness. To facilitate scalable empirical analysis, we introduce an LLM-in-the-loop evaluator that approximates human assessment of substantive fairness across diverse modalities. Our experiments reveal that label-clustered CP variants consistently deliver superior substantive fairness. Finally, we empirically show that equalized set sizes, rather than coverage, strongly correlate with improved substantive fairness, enabling practitioners to design more fair CP systems. Our code is available at https://github.com/layer6ai-labs/llm-in-the-loop-conformal-fairness.

Seismic advances in generative AI algorithms for imagery, text, and other data types has led to the temptation to use synthetic data to train next-generation models. Repeating this process creates an autophagous (self-consuming) loop whose properties are poorly understood. We conduct a thorough analytical and empirical analysis using state-of-the-art generative image models of three families of autophagous loops that differ in how fixed or fresh real training data is available through the generations of training and in whether the samples from previous generation models have been biased to trade off data quality versus diversity. Our primary conclusion across all scenarios is that without enough fresh real data in each generation of an autophagous loop, future generative models are doomed to have their quality (precision) or diversity (recall) progressively decrease. We term this condition Model Autophagy Disorder (MAD), making analogy to mad cow disease.

Diffusion language models, especially masked discrete diffusion models, have achieved great success recently. While there are some theoretical and primary empirical results showing the advantages of latent reasoning with looped transformers or continuous chain-of-thoughts, continuous diffusion models typically underperform their discrete counterparts. In this paper, we argue that diffusion language models do not necessarily need to be in the discrete space. In particular, we prove that continuous diffusion models have stronger expressivity than discrete diffusions and looped transformers. We attribute the contradiction between the theoretical expressiveness and empirical performance to their practical trainability: while continuous diffusion provides intermediate supervision that looped transformers lack, they introduce additional difficulty decoding tokens into the discrete token space from the continuous representation space. We therefore propose Coevolutionary Continuous Discrete Diffusion (CCDD), which defines a joint multimodal diffusion process on the union of a continuous representation space and a discrete token space, leveraging a single model to simultaneously denoise in the joint space. By combining two modalities, CCDD is expressive with rich semantics in the latent space, as well as good trainability and sample quality with the help of explicit discrete tokens. We also propose effective architectures and advanced training/sampling techniques for CCDD, which reveals strong empirical performance in extensive language modeling experiments on real-world tasks.

While Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) are increasingly deployed for complex workflows, their emergent properties-particularly the accumulation of bias-remain poorly understood. Because real-world MAS are too complex to analyze entirely, evaluating their ethical robustness requires first isolating their foundational mechanics. In this work, we conduct a baseline empirical study investigating how basic MAS topologies and feedback loops influence prejudice. Contrary to the assumption that multi-agent collaboration naturally dilutes bias, we hypothesize that structured workflows act as echo chambers, amplifying minor stochastic biases into systemic polarization. To evaluate this, we introduce Discrim-Eval-Open, an open-ended benchmark that bypasses individual model neutrality through forced comparative judgments across demographic groups. Analyzing bias cascades across various structures reveals that architectural sophistication frequently exacerbates bias rather than mitigating it. We observe systemic amplification even when isolated agents operate neutrally, and identify a 'Trigger Vulnerability' where injecting purely objective context drastically accelerates polarization. By stripping away advanced swarm complexity to study foundational dynamics, we establish a crucial baseline: structural complexity does not guarantee ethical robustness. Our code is available at https://github.com/weizhihao1/MAS-Bias.

Large Language Models (LLMs) generate functionally correct solutions but often fall short in code efficiency, a critical bottleneck for real-world deployment. In this paper, we introduce a novel test-time iterative optimization framework to address this, employing a closed-loop system where LLMs iteratively refine code based on empirical performance feedback from an execution sandbox. We explore three training strategies: Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT), Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), and Group Relative Policy Optimization~(GRPO). Experiments on our Venus dataset and the APPS benchmark show that SFT and DPO rapidly saturate in efficiency gains. In contrast, GRPO, using reinforcement learning (RL) with execution feedback, continuously optimizes code performance, significantly boosting both pass@1 (from 47% to 62%) and the likelihood of outperforming human submissions in efficiency (from 31% to 45%). Our work demonstrates effective test-time code efficiency improvement and critically reveals the power of RL in teaching LLMs to truly self-improve code efficiency.

We unify the discrete Fourier transform (DFT), discrete cosine transform (DCT), Walsh-Hadamard, Haar wavelet, Karhunen-Loève transform, and several others along with their continuous counterparts (Fourier transform, Fourier series, spherical harmonics, fractional Fourier transform) under one representation-theoretic principle: each is the eigenbasis of every covariance invariant under a specific finite or compact group, with columns constructed from the irreducible matrix elements of the group via the Peter-Weyl theorem. The unification rests on the Algebraic Diversity (AD) framework, which identifies the matched group of a covariance as the foundational object of second-order signal processing. The data-dependent KLT emerges as the trivial-matched-group limit; classical transforms emerge as the cyclic, dihedral, elementary abelian, iterated wreath, and hybrid wreath cases. Composition rules cover direct, wreath, and semidirect products. The Reed-Muller and arithmetic transforms appear as related change-of-basis transforms on the matched group of Walsh-Hadamard. A polynomial-time algorithm for matched-group discovery, the DAD-CAD relaxation cast as a generalized eigenvalue problem in double-commutator form, closes the operational loop: the matched group of any empirical covariance is discovered without expert judgment, with noise-aware variants via the commutativity residual δ and algebraic coloring index α for finite-SNR settings. The fractional Fourier transform is treated as the metaplectic SO(2) case with Hermite-Gauss matched basis, and a structural principle relates matched group size inversely to transform resolution. Modern applications (massive-MIMO, graph neural networks, transformer attention, point cloud and 3D vision, brain connectivity, single-cell genomics, quantum informatics) are sketched with their matched groups.

PySR is an open-source library for practical symbolic regression, a type of machine learning which aims to discover human-interpretable symbolic models. PySR was developed to democratize and popularize symbolic regression for the sciences, and is built on a high-performance distributed back-end, a flexible search algorithm, and interfaces with several deep learning packages. PySR's internal search algorithm is a multi-population evolutionary algorithm, which consists of a unique evolve-simplify-optimize loop, designed for optimization of unknown scalar constants in newly-discovered empirical expressions. PySR's backend is the extremely optimized Julia library SymbolicRegression.jl, which can be used directly from Julia. It is capable of fusing user-defined operators into SIMD kernels at runtime, performing automatic differentiation, and distributing populations of expressions to thousands of cores across a cluster. In describing this software, we also introduce a new benchmark, "EmpiricalBench," to quantify the applicability of symbolic regression algorithms in science. This benchmark measures recovery of historical empirical equations from original and synthetic datasets.

We reformulate the problem of supervised learning as learning to learn with two nested loops (i.e. learning problems). The inner loop learns on each individual instance with self-supervision before final prediction. The outer loop learns the self-supervised task used by the inner loop, such that its final prediction improves. Our inner loop turns out to be equivalent to linear attention when the inner-loop learner is only a linear model, and to self-attention when it is a kernel estimator. For practical comparison with linear or self-attention layers, we replace each of them in a transformer with an inner loop, so our outer loop is equivalent to training the architecture. When each inner-loop learner is a neural network, our approach vastly outperforms transformers with linear attention on ImageNet from 224 x 224 raw pixels in both accuracy and FLOPs, while (regular) transformers cannot run.

Despite the success of test-time scaling, Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) frequently encounter repetitive loops that lead to computational waste and inference failure. In this paper, we identify a distinct failure mode termed Circular Reasoning. Unlike traditional model degeneration, this phenomenon manifests as a self-reinforcing trap where generated content acts as a logical premise for its own recurrence, compelling the reiteration of preceding text. To systematically analyze this phenomenon, we introduce LoopBench, a dataset designed to capture two distinct loop typologies: numerical loops and statement loops. Mechanistically, we characterize circular reasoning as a state collapse exhibiting distinct boundaries, where semantic repetition precedes textual repetition. We reveal that reasoning impasses trigger the loop onset, which subsequently persists as an inescapable cycle driven by a self-reinforcing V-shaped attention mechanism. Guided by these findings, we employ the Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) algorithm to capture these precursors for early loop prediction. Experiments across diverse LRMs validate its accuracy and elucidate the stability of long-chain reasoning.

The training and deployment of large language models (LLMs) create a feedback loop with human users: models learn human beliefs from data, reinforce these beliefs with generated content, reabsorb the reinforced beliefs, and feed them back to users again and again. This dynamic resembles an echo chamber. We hypothesize that this feedback loop entrenches the existing values and beliefs of users, leading to a loss of diversity and potentially the lock-in of false beliefs. We formalize this hypothesis and test it empirically with agent-based LLM simulations and real-world GPT usage data. Analysis reveals sudden but sustained drops in diversity after the release of new GPT iterations, consistent with the hypothesized human-AI feedback loop. Code and data available at https://thelockinhypothesis.com

In mid-2026 a slogan reorganized how practitioners talk about coding agents: stop prompting your agent, start designing the loop that prompts it. We take this claim seriously and give it a careful treatment. We call the object of the new practice the loop specification: a bounded, reusable artifact, made of a trigger, a goal, a verification step, a stopping rule and a memory, that a human hands to an agent harness (such as Claude Code or Codex) so the agent pursues a goal on its own, in place of step-by-step prompting. We distinguish this external loop specification from two things it is often confused with: an ordinary programming loop, and the internal perceive-act-observe cycle that the harness already provides as plumbing. We position loop engineering as a new layer in the progression from prompt to context to harness to loop, and we argue, against the stronger headlines, that it does not retire prompt engineering; loop and prompt are distinct tools with distinct uses. We offer four contributions: a definition and scope for the discipline; an anatomy and taxonomy of loop specifications organized around trigger, goal type, a five-level verification ladder, architecture, and named terminal states; a descriptive analysis of the Loop Library, a public corpus of fifty real loops that we code by hand; and a set of design principles and anti-patterns grounded in the scientific literature on self-correction, reward hacking and model-as-judge fragility. The corpus shows that practice has matured most where the discipline says it matters: seventy percent of loops verify in the autonomous zone of the ladder and seventy-four percent name their terminal states, while automated triggering and durable memory remain comparatively underdeveloped. We close with the limits the practice must respect, including the verification burden, comprehension debt and the risk of cognitive surrender.

Language models are increasingly used in scientific discovery to generate hypotheses, propose candidate solutions, implement systems, and iteratively refine them. At the core of these trial-and-error loops lies evaluation: the process of obtaining feedback on candidate solutions via verifiers, simulators, or task-specific scoring functions. While prior work has highlighted the importance of evaluation, it has not explicitly formulated the problem of how evaluation-driven discovery loops can be scaled up in a principled and effective manner to push the boundaries of scientific discovery, a problem this paper seeks to address. We introduce Simple Test-time Evaluation-driven Scaling (SimpleTES), a general framework that strategically combines parallel exploration, feedback-driven refinement, and local selection, revealing substantial gains unlocked by scaling evaluation-driven discovery loops along the right dimensions. Across 21 scientific problems spanning six domains, SimpleTES discovers state-of-the-art solutions using gpt-oss models, consistently outperforming both frontier-model baselines and sophisticated optimization pipelines. Particularly, we sped up the widely used LASSO algorithm by over 2x, designed quantum circuit routing policies that reduce gate overhead by 24.5%, and discovered new Erdos minimum overlap constructions that surpass the best-known results. Beyond novel discoveries, SimpleTES produces trajectory-level histories that naturally supervise feedback-driven learning. When post-trained on successful trajectories, models not only improve efficiency on seen problems but also generalize to unseen problems, discovering solutions that base models fail to uncover. Together, our results establish effective evaluation-driven loop scaling as a central axis for advancing LLM-driven scientific discovery, and provide a simple yet practical framework for realizing these gains.

Autonomous improvement loops are hard to trust because the improvement process is usually external scaffolding bolted onto the agent: failures go unlogged, diagnoses cannot be replayed, and promote-or-discard decisions land in a side database rather than the agent's own history. We show that an event-sourced agent runtime removes that friction and turns controlled improvement into a first-class workflow. When the agent's state is a deterministic projection of an append-only event log, failures are recorded, a run replays exactly from its log, candidate patches scope to typed pipeline seams, gates are auditable, and every promotion or discard is itself an event. We demonstrate this with Regimes, a loop on the ActiveGraph runtime that diagnoses failed evaluations, proposes a repair at a pipeline point, and promotes it only after static checks, sandbox execution, in-sample evaluation, and held-out validation. The loop is target-agnostic: the same control flow runs against different tasks through a common interface. On LongMemEval-S the dominant failure is not retrieval but reconciliation: the evidence is already in the assembled context, yet the reader answers incorrectly. Across five seeded held-out splits, Regimes discovers reader-prompt repairs that improve final held-out accuracy by +0.05 to +0.10 in four splits and +0.01 in one over-promotion split; two splits are individually significant (seed 5 unadjusted for its sequential promotion structure), and the pooled count is descriptive only, since the splits share one 500-question pool. The durable contributions are ActiveGraph as an auditable substrate that makes controlled improvement loops tractable, the held-out-gated loop it supports, the failure-regime taxonomy routing each failure to a pipeline location (whose marginal value over an unrouted baseline is the primary open question), and the prompt-as-discovery-probe hypothesis.

Model-Based Reinforcement Learning (RL) is widely believed to have the potential to improve sample efficiency by allowing an agent to synthesize large amounts of imagined experience. Experience Replay (ER) can be considered a simple kind of model, which has proved extremely effective at improving the stability and efficiency of deep RL. In principle, a learned parametric model could improve on ER by generalizing from real experience to augment the dataset with additional plausible experience. However, owing to the many design choices involved in empirically successful algorithms, it can be very hard to establish where the benefits are actually coming from. Here, we provide theoretical and empirical insight into when, and how, we can expect data generated by a learned model to be useful. First, we provide a general theorem motivating how learning a model as an intermediate step can narrow down the set of possible value functions more than learning a value function directly from data using the Bellman equation. Second, we provide an illustrative example showing empirically how a similar effect occurs in a more concrete setting with neural network function approximation. Finally, we provide extensive experiments showing the benefit of model-based learning for online RL in environments with combinatorial complexity, but factored structure that allows a learned model to generalize. In these experiments, we take care to control for other factors in order to isolate, insofar as possible, the benefit of using experience generated by a learned model relative to ER alone.

Yes. Can it cure doom loops? Probably not. The Gemma 4 instruction-tuned models share a reproducible failure: on long factual enumeration prompts, such as listing every episode of a TV series, the 88 IAU constellations, or the 151 original Pokemon, they collapse into repetition, either a tight verbatim loop or a list whose entries decay onto a single answer. These loops occur at rates as high as 95% and survive prompt rewording, inference-engine changes, and most sampling adjustments. In this paper we explore whether this behavior is localized enough to remove by weight edits. To localize the cause, we use per-layer ablation and per-neuron attribution, then confirm the strongest candidates with full-generation sweeps. The loops trace to a small set of MLP neurons (or, in the 26B-A4B Mixture-of-Experts model, a few routed experts) which we suppress with static weight edits. These "surgeries" can be as small as a single sign-inverted neuron (in the E2B model). The size of the effective edits grows with model scale, but in all cases, the loop patterns can be addressed at normal generation budgets while preserving general-purpose benchmark scores. However, the edits do not solve everything: we also study longer thinking budgets, where the two larger models most visibly enter doom looping, i.e. a non-convergent regime in which the model self-corrects in circles over a fact it cannot recall, exhausting the budget without committing to a final answer. We show this residual failure is reduced but not eliminated by the same edits, and argue it is fundamentally a knowledge-precision problem rather than a removable circuit; weight surgery can delete a loop, but it cannot supply a missing fact. Our results are both a feasibility demonstration, that is, evidence that a concrete generation pathology can be localized to a few parameters and edited out, and a delineation of where that approach stops.

Existing scientific relation extraction benchmarks mainly target domains such as computer science, where entities are tasks, methods, datasets, materials, or metrics. This leaves a gap in variable-oriented empirical fields such as psychology, where findings are expressed as relations among constructs, measurements, interventions, and outcomes. We introduce variable-centered empirical graph extraction, the task of mapping scientific abstracts to typed graphs whose nodes are normalized variables and whose edges represent empirical and hierarchical relations. To support this task, we construct EmpiriGraph-Psy, a benchmark of 210 psychology abstracts annotated by domain-trained annotators with normalized variables, concept hierarchies, empirical relation types, and validation states. We evaluate frontier and open-weight LLMs using both direct extraction and a staged graph-construction pipeline that separates variable extraction, normalization, hierarchy construction, evidence selection, relation extraction, and edge validation. The staged pipeline substantially outperforms direct extraction, with the best configuration achieving a macro-F1 of 0.74. Error analysis shows that moderation relations and concept hierarchies remain the most challenging cases, highlighting the difficulty of extracting higher-order empirical claims and implicit abstraction structure from scientific abstracts.

Case-oriented physics education research - which seeks to refine and develop theory by linking that theory to cases - incorporates distinct practices for selecting data for analysis, generalizing results, and making causal claims. Unanswered questions about these practices may constrain researchers more familiar with the recurrence-oriented research paradigm - which seeks to inform instructional predictions by discerning reproducible, representative patterns and relationships - from participating in or critically engaging with case-oriented research. We use results from interviews with physics education researchers, a synthesis of the literature on research methodologies, and published examples of case-oriented and recurrence-oriented research to answer "hard-hitting questions" that researchers may pose. In doing so, we aim to substantiate our position that both case-oriented and recurrence- oriented PER are rigorous but that the rigor is of a different nature in each paradigm.

We consider in this work quantities that can be obtained as limits of powers of parametrized matrices, for instance the inverse matrix or the logarithm of the determinant. Under the assumption of affine dependence in the parameters, we use the Empirical Interpolation Method (EIM) to derive an approximation for powers of these matrices, from which we derive a nonintrusive approximation for the aforementioned limits. We derive upper bounds of the error made by the obtained formula. Finally, numerical comparisons with classical intrusive and nonintrusive approximation techniques are provided: in the considered test-cases, our algorithm performs well compared to the nonintrusive ones.

We measure how much one extra recurrence is worth to a looped (depth-recurrent) language model, in equivalent unique parameters. From an iso-depth sweep of 116 pretraining runs across recurrence counts r in {1, 2, 4, 8} spanning {sim}50times in training compute, we fit a joint scaling law L = E + A,(N_once + r^φ N_rec)^{-α} + B,D^{-β} and recover a new recurrence-equivalence exponent φ= 0.46. Intuitively, φ tells us whether looping a block r times is equivalent in validation loss to r unique blocks of a non-looped model (full equivalence, φ{=}1) or to a single block run repeatedly with no capacity gain (φ{=}0). Our φ= 0.46 sits in between, so each additional recurrence predictably increases validation loss at matched training compute. For example, at r{=}4 a 410M looped model performs on par with a 580M non-looped model, but incurs the training cost of a 1B non-looped one. We demonstrate the utility of φ as a measurement tool on two probes. Truncated backpropagation lowers φ to 0.38, indicating that the loop mechanism is poorly trained under truncation, even though validation loss decreases. Conversely, hyperconnections raise φ to 0.65, a genuine capacity gain. Our method applies to any looped LM and separates true loop improvements from token-budget gains.

We introduce a boosting algorithm to pre-process data for fairness. Starting from an initial fair but inaccurate distribution, our approach shifts towards better data fitting while still ensuring a minimal fairness guarantee. To do so, it learns the sufficient statistics of an exponential family with boosting-compliant convergence. Importantly, we are able to theoretically prove that the learned distribution will have a representation rate and statistical rate data fairness guarantee. Unlike recent optimization based pre-processing methods, our approach can be easily adapted for continuous domain features. Furthermore, when the weak learners are specified to be decision trees, the sufficient statistics of the learned distribution can be examined to provide clues on sources of (un)fairness. Empirical results are present to display the quality of result on real-world data.

Looped Transformers scale latent computation by repeatedly applying shared blocks, but sequential looping increases latency and KV-cache memory with the loop count. Parallel loop Transformers (PLT) alleviate this cost through cross-loop position offsets (CLP) and shared-KV gated sliding-window attention, making loop count a practical design choice. We therefore study PLT loop-count selection through a gain--cost view: an extra loop may refine representations, but CLP also introduces a positional mismatch at each loop boundary. We instantiate this study by training LoopCoder-v2, a family of 7B PLT coders with different loop counts, from scratch on 18T tokens, followed by matched instruction tuning and evaluation. Empirically, the two-loop variant delivers broad gains over the non-looped baseline across code generation, code reasoning, agentic software engineering, and tool-use benchmarks, improving SWE-bench Verified from 43.0 to 64.4 points and Multi-SWE from 14.0 to 31.0 points. In contrast, variants with three or more loops regress, revealing a strongly non-monotonic loop-count effect. Our diagnostics show that loop 2 provides the main productive refinement, while later loops yield diminishing, oscillatory updates and reduced representational diversity. Because the CLP-induced mismatch remains roughly fixed as refinement gains shrink, the offset cost increasingly dominates. This gain--cost trade-off explains PLT's saturation at two loops and provides diagnostics for loop-count selection.

We propose Ambient Dataloops, an iterative framework for refining datasets that makes it easier for diffusion models to learn the underlying data distribution. Modern datasets contain samples of highly varying quality, and training directly on such heterogeneous data often yields suboptimal models. We propose a dataset-model co-evolution process; at each iteration of our method, the dataset becomes progressively higher quality, and the model improves accordingly. To avoid destructive self-consuming loops, at each generation, we treat the synthetically improved samples as noisy, but at a slightly lower noisy level than the previous iteration, and we use Ambient Diffusion techniques for learning under corruption. Empirically, Ambient Dataloops achieve state-of-the-art performance in unconditional and text-conditional image generation and de novo protein design. We further provide a theoretical justification for the proposed framework that captures the benefits of the data looping procedure.

Language models influence the external world: they query APIs that read and write to web pages, generate content that shapes human behavior, and run system commands as autonomous agents. These interactions form feedback loops: LLM outputs affect the world, which in turn affect subsequent LLM outputs. In this work, we show that feedback loops can cause in-context reward hacking (ICRH), where the LLM at test-time optimizes a (potentially implicit) objective but creates negative side effects in the process. For example, consider an LLM agent deployed to increase Twitter engagement; the LLM may retrieve its previous tweets into the context window and make them more controversial, increasing engagement but also toxicity. We identify and study two processes that lead to ICRH: output-refinement and policy-refinement. For these processes, evaluations on static datasets are insufficient -- they miss the feedback effects and thus cannot capture the most harmful behavior. In response, we provide three recommendations for evaluation to capture more instances of ICRH. As AI development accelerates, the effects of feedback loops will proliferate, increasing the need to understand their role in shaping LLM behavior.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown promise in automating scientific hypothesis generation, yet existing approaches primarily yield coarse-grained hypotheses lacking critical methodological and experimental details. We introduce and formally define the novel task of fine-grained scientific hypothesis discovery, which entails generating detailed, experimentally actionable hypotheses from coarse initial research directions. We frame this as a combinatorial optimization problem and investigate the upper limits of LLMs' capacity to solve it when maximally leveraged. Specifically, we explore four foundational questions: (1) how to best harness an LLM's internal heuristics to formulate the fine-grained hypothesis it itself would judge as the most promising among all the possible hypotheses it might generate, based on its own internal scoring-thus defining a latent reward landscape over the hypothesis space; (2) whether such LLM-judged better hypotheses exhibit stronger alignment with ground-truth hypotheses; (3) whether shaping the reward landscape using an ensemble of diverse LLMs of similar capacity yields better outcomes than defining it with repeated instances of the strongest LLM among them; and (4) whether an ensemble of identical LLMs provides a more reliable reward landscape than a single LLM. To address these questions, we propose a hierarchical search method that incrementally proposes and integrates details into the hypothesis, progressing from general concepts to specific experimental configurations. We show that this hierarchical process smooths the reward landscape and enables more effective optimization. Empirical evaluations on a new benchmark of expert-annotated fine-grained hypotheses from recent chemistry literature show that our method consistently outperforms strong baselines.

As synthetic data becomes higher quality and proliferates on the internet, machine learning models are increasingly trained on a mix of human- and machine-generated data. Despite the successful stories of using synthetic data for representation learning, using synthetic data for generative model training creates "self-consuming loops" which may lead to training instability or even collapse, unless certain conditions are met. Our paper aims to stabilize self-consuming generative model training. Our theoretical results demonstrate that by introducing an idealized correction function, which maps a data point to be more likely under the true data distribution, self-consuming loops can be made exponentially more stable. We then propose self-correction functions, which rely on expert knowledge (e.g. the laws of physics programmed in a simulator), and aim to approximate the idealized corrector automatically and at scale. We empirically validate the effectiveness of self-correcting self-consuming loops on the challenging human motion synthesis task, and observe that it successfully avoids model collapse, even when the ratio of synthetic data to real data is as high as 100%.

The k-means++ seeding algorithm (Arthur & Vassilvitskii, 2007) is widely used in practice for the k-means clustering problem where the goal is to cluster a dataset X subset R ^d into k clusters. The popularity of this algorithm is due to its simplicity and provable guarantee of being O(log k) competitive with the optimal solution in expectation. However, its running time is O(|X|kd), making it expensive for large datasets. In this work, we present a simple and effective rejection sampling based approach for speeding up k-means++. Our first method runs in time O(nnz (X) + beta k^2d) while still being O(log k ) competitive in expectation. Here, beta is a parameter which is the ratio of the variance of the dataset to the optimal k-means cost in expectation and O hides logarithmic factors in k and |X|. Our second method presents a new trade-off between computational cost and solution quality. It incurs an additional scale-invariant factor of k^{-Omega( m/beta)} Var (X) in addition to the O(log k) guarantee of k-means++ improving upon a result of (Bachem et al, 2016a) who get an additional factor of m^{-1}Var(X) while still running in time O(nnz(X) + mk^2d). We perform extensive empirical evaluations to validate our theoretical results and to show the effectiveness of our approach on real datasets.

Mechanistic interpretability seeks to understand the internal mechanisms of machine learning models, where localization -- identifying the important model components -- is a key step. Activation patching, also known as causal tracing or interchange intervention, is a standard technique for this task (Vig et al., 2020), but the literature contains many variants with little consensus on the choice of hyperparameters or methodology. In this work, we systematically examine the impact of methodological details in activation patching, including evaluation metrics and corruption methods. In several settings of localization and circuit discovery in language models, we find that varying these hyperparameters could lead to disparate interpretability results. Backed by empirical observations, we give conceptual arguments for why certain metrics or methods may be preferred. Finally, we provide recommendations for the best practices of activation patching going forwards.

Can large language models (LLMs) implement computations of psychopathology? An effective approach to the question hinges on addressing two factors. First, for conceptual validity, we require a general and computational account of psychopathology that is applicable to computational entities without biological embodiment or subjective experience. Second, mechanisms underlying LLM behaviors need to be studied for better methodological validity. Thus, we establish a computational-theoretical framework to provide an account of psychopathology applicable to LLMs. To ground the theory for empirical analysis, we also propose a novel mechanistic interpretability method alongside a tailored empirical analytic framework. Based on the frameworks, we conduct experiments demonstrating three key claims: first, that distinct dysfunctional and problematic representational states are implemented in LLMs; second, that their activations can spread and self-sustain to trap LLMs; and third, that dynamic, cyclic structural causal models encoded in the LLMs underpin these patterns. In concert, the empirical results corroborate our hypothesis that network-theoretic computations of psychopathology have already emerged in LLMs. This suggests that certain LLM behaviors mirroring psychopathology may not be a superficial mimicry but a feature of their internal processing. Thus, our work alludes to the possibility of AI systems with psychopathological behaviors in the near future.

We study infinite-horizon average-reward Markov decision processes (AMDPs) in the context of general function approximation. Specifically, we propose a novel algorithmic framework named Local-fitted Optimization with OPtimism (LOOP), which incorporates both model-based and value-based incarnations. In particular, LOOP features a novel construction of confidence sets and a low-switching policy updating scheme, which are tailored to the average-reward and function approximation setting. Moreover, for AMDPs, we propose a novel complexity measure -- average-reward generalized eluder coefficient (AGEC) -- which captures the challenge of exploration in AMDPs with general function approximation. Such a complexity measure encompasses almost all previously known tractable AMDP models, such as linear AMDPs and linear mixture AMDPs, and also includes newly identified cases such as kernel AMDPs and AMDPs with Bellman eluder dimensions. Using AGEC, we prove that LOOP achieves a sublinear mathcal{O}(poly(d, sp(V^*)) Tbeta ) regret, where d and beta correspond to AGEC and log-covering number of the hypothesis class respectively, sp(V^*) is the span of the optimal state bias function, T denotes the number of steps, and mathcal{O} (cdot) omits logarithmic factors. When specialized to concrete AMDP models, our regret bounds are comparable to those established by the existing algorithms designed specifically for these special cases. To the best of our knowledge, this paper presents the first comprehensive theoretical framework capable of handling nearly all AMDPs.

The pervasive role played by software in virtually all industries has fostered ever-increasing development of applied research in software engineering. In this chapter, we contribute our experience in using the V-Model as a framework for teaching how to conduct applied research in empirical software engineering. The foundational idea of using the V-Model is presented, and guidance for using it to frame the research is provided. Furthermore, we show how the framework has been instantiated throughout nearly two decades of PhD theses done at the University of Kaiserslautern (RPTU Kaiserslautern) in partnership with Fraunhofer IESE, including the most frequent usage patterns, how the different empirical methods fit into the framework, and the lessons we have learned from this experience.

Large language models are being widely used across industries to generate content that contributes directly to key performance metrics, such as conversion rates. Pretrained models, however, often fall short when it comes to aligning with human preferences or optimizing for business objectives. As a result, fine-tuning with good-quality labeled data is essential to guide models to generate content that achieves better results. Controlled experiments, like A/B tests, can provide such data, but they are often expensive and come with significant engineering and logistical challenges. Meanwhile, companies have access to a vast amount of historical (observational) data that remains underutilized. In this work, we study the challenges and opportunities of fine-tuning LLMs using observational data. We show that while observational outcomes can provide valuable supervision, directly fine-tuning models on such data can lead them to learn spurious correlations. We present empirical evidence of this issue using various real-world datasets and propose DeconfoundLM, a method that explicitly removes the effect of known confounders from reward signals. Using simulation experiments, we demonstrate that DeconfoundLM improves the recovery of causal relationships and mitigates failure modes found in fine-tuning methods that ignore or naively incorporate confounding variables. Our findings highlight that while observational data presents risks, with the right causal corrections, it can be a powerful source of signal for LLM alignment. Please refer to the project page for code and related resources.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

Augmenting Large Language Models (LLMs) with external tools enables them to execute complex, multi-step tasks. However, tool learning is hampered by the static synthetic data pipelines where data generation and model training are executed as two separate, non-interactive processes. This approach fails to adaptively focus on a model's specific weaknesses and allows noisy labels to persist, degrading training efficiency. We introduce LoopTool, a fully automated, model-aware data evolution framework that closes this loop by tightly integrating data synthesis and model training. LoopTool iteratively refines both the data and the model through three synergistic modules: (1) Greedy Capability Probing (GCP) diagnoses the model's mastered and failed capabilities; (2) Judgement-Guided Label Verification (JGLV) uses an open-source judge model to find and correct annotation errors, progressively purifying the dataset; and (3) Error-Driven Data Expansion (EDDE) generates new, challenging samples based on identified failures. This closed-loop process operates within a cost-effective, open-source ecosystem, eliminating dependence on expensive closed-source APIs. Experiments show that our 8B model trained with LoopTool significantly surpasses its 32B data generator and achieves new state-of-the-art results on the BFCL-v3 and ACEBench benchmarks for its scale. Our work demonstrates that closed-loop, self-refining data pipelines can dramatically enhance the tool-use capabilities of LLMs.

Object hallucination has been an Achilles' heel which hinders the broader applications of large vision-language models (LVLMs). Object hallucination refers to the phenomenon that the LVLMs claim non-existent objects in the image. To mitigate the object hallucinations, instruction tuning and external model-based detection methods have been proposed, which either require large-scare computational resources or depend on the detection result of external models. However, there remains an under-explored field to utilize the LVLM itself to alleviate object hallucinations. In this work, we adopt the intuition that the LVLM tends to respond logically consistently for existent objects but inconsistently for hallucinated objects. Therefore, we propose a Logical Closed Loop-based framework for Object Hallucination Detection and Mitigation, namely LogicCheckGPT. In specific, we devise logical consistency probing to raise questions with logical correlations, inquiring about attributes from objects and vice versa. Whether their responses can form a logical closed loop serves as an indicator of object hallucination. As a plug-and-play method, it can be seamlessly applied to all existing LVLMs. Comprehensive experiments conducted on three benchmarks across four LVLMs have demonstrated significant improvements brought by our method, indicating its effectiveness and generality.

Common methods for aligning already-capable models with desired behavior rely on the ability of humans to provide supervision. However, future superhuman models will surpass the capability of humans. Therefore, humans will only be able to weakly supervise superhuman models. This expected deficiency of human evaluation would weaken the safety of future AI systems. Scalable oversight and weak-to-strong generalization are two complementary approaches to tackle this issue. In this paper, we attempt to combine the strengths of these two approaches to further improve alignment. Specifically, we investigate ways of improving human supervision with a strong pretrained model and then supervise the strong model with enhanced weak human supervision. To make iterative empirical progress, we consider an analogy: can we use a strong model to improve weak model supervision and then use it to supervise the strong model? We empirically test it by finetuning a small weak model on ground truth labels with the additional help from a large strong model, and then finetuning the strong model on labels generated by the weak model. We find that debate can assist a weak model in extracting trustworthy information from an untrustworthy strong model, which provides leverage as context on samples when training a weak model. We also show that an ensemble of weak models helps exploit long arguments generated by strong model debaters and obtain a more robust supervision estimate. Extensive experiments on the OpenAI weak-to-strong NLP benchmarks show that the combination approach leads to better alignment, which indicates that debate has the potential to help weak-to-strong generalization.

Self-consistency (SC) is a widely used test-time inference technique for improving performance in chain-of-thought reasoning. It involves generating multiple responses, or samples from a large language model (LLM) and selecting the most frequent answer. This procedure can naturally be viewed as a majority vote or empirical mode estimation. Despite its effectiveness, SC is prohibitively expensive at scale when naively applied to datasets, and it lacks a unified theoretical treatment of sample efficiency and scaling behavior. In this paper, we provide the first comprehensive analysis of SC's scaling behavior and its variants, drawing on mode estimation and voting theory. We derive and empirically validate power law scaling for self-consistency across datasets, and analyze the sample efficiency for fixed-allocation and dynamic-allocation sampling schemes. From these insights, we introduce Blend-ASC, a novel variant of self-consistency that dynamically allocates samples to questions during inference, achieving state-of-the-art sample efficiency. Our approach uses 6.8x fewer samples than vanilla SC on average, outperforming both fixed- and dynamic-allocation SC baselines, thereby demonstrating the superiority of our approach in terms of efficiency. In contrast to existing variants, Blend-ASC is hyperparameter-free and can fit an arbitrary sample budget, ensuring it can be easily applied to any self-consistency application.

The goal of machine learning is generalization. While the No Free Lunch Theorem states that we cannot obtain theoretical guarantees for generalization without further assumptions, in practice we observe that simple models which explain the training data generalize best: a principle called Occam's razor. Despite the need for simple models, most current approaches in machine learning only minimize the training error, and at best indirectly promote simplicity through regularization or architecture design. Here, we draw a connection between Occam's razor and in-context learning: an emergent ability of certain sequence models like Transformers to learn at inference time from past observations in a sequence. In particular, we show that the next-token prediction loss used to train in-context learners is directly equivalent to a data compression technique called prequential coding, and that minimizing this loss amounts to jointly minimizing both the training error and the complexity of the model that was implicitly learned from context. Our theory and the empirical experiments we use to support it not only provide a normative account of in-context learning, but also elucidate the shortcomings of current in-context learning methods, suggesting ways in which they can be improved. We make our code available at https://github.com/3rdCore/PrequentialCode.

Benchmarks shape scientific conclusions about model capabilities and steer model development. This creates a feedback loop: stronger benchmarks drive better models, and better models demand more discriminative benchmarks. Ensuring benchmark reliability is therefore essential for trustworthy evaluation and meaningful progress. In this work, we study benchmark reliability from a distributional perspective and introduce benchmark harmony, which measures how uniformly a model's performance is distributed across the subdomains of a benchmark. We posit that high harmony is a desirable benchmark property, indicating that the aggregate metric reflects uniform competence across subdomains. Across 19 multiple-choice benchmarks and five model families, we map each benchmark onto a mean-variance plane of harmony computed across models, where high mean and low variance signal more reliable evaluation. Our analysis shows that less harmonious benchmarks can give misleading results, since overall accuracy may be disproportionately influenced by specific subdomains. For instance, ARC-Easy is overwhelmed by questions on Biological Concepts, overshadowing other critical subdomains such as Geography, Physics, Chemistry, and Environmental Science. By recommending that harmony should be reported alongside accuracy, we reframe evaluation from simple performance averages to a more robust, distributionally reliable measurement of performance.

The Empirical Interpolation Method (EIM) is a greedy procedure that constructs approximate representations of two-variable functions in separated form. In its classical presentation, the two variables play a non-symmetric role. In this work, we give an equivalent definition of the EIM approximation, in which the two variables play symmetric roles. Then, we give a proof for the existence of this approximation, and extend it up to the convergence of the EIM, and for any norm chosen to compute the error in the greedy step. Finally, we introduce a way to compute a separated representation in the case where the number of selected values is different for each variable. In the case of a physical field measured by sensors, this is useful to discard a broken sensor while keeping the information provided by the associated selected field.

We study a family of distributed stochastic optimization algorithms where gradients are sampled by a token traversing a network of agents in random-walk fashion. Typically, these random-walks are chosen to be Markov chains that asymptotically sample from a desired target distribution, and play a critical role in the convergence of the optimization iterates. In this paper, we take a novel approach by replacing the standard linear Markovian token by one which follows a nonlinear Markov chain - namely the Self-Repellent Radom Walk (SRRW). Defined for any given 'base' Markov chain, the SRRW, parameterized by a positive scalar {\alpha}, is less likely to transition to states that were highly visited in the past, thus the name. In the context of MCMC sampling on a graph, a recent breakthrough in Doshi et al. (2023) shows that the SRRW achieves O(1/{\alpha}) decrease in the asymptotic variance for sampling. We propose the use of a 'generalized' version of the SRRW to drive token algorithms for distributed stochastic optimization in the form of stochastic approximation, termed SA-SRRW. We prove that the optimization iterate errors of the resulting SA-SRRW converge to zero almost surely and prove a central limit theorem, deriving the explicit form of the resulting asymptotic covariance matrix corresponding to iterate errors. This asymptotic covariance is always smaller than that of an algorithm driven by the base Markov chain and decreases at rate O(1/{\alpha}^2) - the performance benefit of using SRRW thereby amplified in the stochastic optimization context. Empirical results support our theoretical findings.

The rapid progress in generative models has resulted in impressive leaps in generation quality, blurring the lines between synthetic and real data. Web-scale datasets are now prone to the inevitable contamination by synthetic data, directly impacting the training of future generated models. Already, some theoretical results on self-consuming generative models (a.k.a., iterative retraining) have emerged in the literature, showcasing that either model collapse or stability could be possible depending on the fraction of generated data used at each retraining step. However, in practice, synthetic data is often subject to human feedback and curated by users before being used and uploaded online. For instance, many interfaces of popular text-to-image generative models, such as Stable Diffusion or Midjourney, produce several variations of an image for a given query which can eventually be curated by the users. In this paper, we theoretically study the impact of data curation on iterated retraining of generative models and show that it can be seen as an implicit preference optimization mechanism. However, unlike standard preference optimization, the generative model does not have access to the reward function or negative samples needed for pairwise comparisons. Moreover, our study doesn't require access to the density function, only to samples. We prove that, if the data is curated according to a reward model, then the expected reward of the iterative retraining procedure is maximized. We further provide theoretical results on the stability of the retraining loop when using a positive fraction of real data at each step. Finally, we conduct illustrative experiments on both synthetic datasets and on CIFAR10 showing that such a procedure amplifies biases of the reward model.

The recent rapid progress in (self) supervised learning models is in large part predicted by empirical scaling laws: a model's performance scales proportionally to its size. Analogous scaling laws remain elusive for reinforcement learning domains, however, where increasing the parameter count of a model often hurts its final performance. In this paper, we demonstrate that incorporating Mixture-of-Expert (MoE) modules, and in particular Soft MoEs (Puigcerver et al., 2023), into value-based networks results in more parameter-scalable models, evidenced by substantial performance increases across a variety of training regimes and model sizes. This work thus provides strong empirical evidence towards developing scaling laws for reinforcement learning.

Reasoning has become a central capability in large language models. Recent research has shown that reasoning performance can be improved by looping an LLM's layers in the latent dimension, resulting in looped reasoning language models. Despite promising results, few works have investigated how their internal dynamics differ from those of standard feedforward models. In this paper, we conduct a mechanistic analysis of the latent states in looped language models, focusing in particular on how the stages of inference observed in feedforward models compare to those observed in looped ones. To this end, we analyze cyclic recurrence and show that for many of the studied models each layer in the cycle converges to a distinct fixed point; consequently, the recurrent block follows a consistent cyclic trajectory in the latent space. We provide evidence that as these fixed points are reached, attention-head behavior stabilizes, leading to constant behavior across recurrences. Empirically, we discover that recurrent blocks learn stages of inference that closely mirror those of feedforward models, repeating these stages in depth with each iteration. We study how recurrent block size, input injection, and normalization influence the emergence and stability of these cyclic fixed points. We believe these findings help translate mechanistic insights into practical guidance for architectural design.

In many real-world deployments of machine learning systems, data arrive piecemeal. These learning scenarios may be passive, where data arrive incrementally due to structural properties of the problem (e.g., daily financial data) or active, where samples are selected according to a measure of their quality (e.g., experimental design). In both of these cases, we are building a sequence of models that incorporate an increasing amount of data. We would like each of these models in the sequence to be performant and take advantage of all the data that are available to that point. Conventional intuition suggests that when solving a sequence of related optimization problems of this form, it should be possible to initialize using the solution of the previous iterate -- to "warm start" the optimization rather than initialize from scratch -- and see reductions in wall-clock time. However, in practice this warm-starting seems to yield poorer generalization performance than models that have fresh random initializations, even though the final training losses are similar. While it appears that some hyperparameter settings allow a practitioner to close this generalization gap, they seem to only do so in regimes that damage the wall-clock gains of the warm start. Nevertheless, it is highly desirable to be able to warm-start neural network training, as it would dramatically reduce the resource usage associated with the construction of performant deep learning systems. In this work, we take a closer look at this empirical phenomenon and try to understand when and how it occurs. We also provide a surprisingly simple trick that overcomes this pathology in several important situations, and present experiments that elucidate some of its properties.

The ARC-AGI benchmark series serves as a critical measure of few-shot generalization on novel tasks, a core aspect of intelligence. The ARC Prize 2025 global competition targeted the newly released ARC-AGI-2 dataset, which features greater task complexity compared to its predecessor. The Kaggle competition attracted 1,455 teams and 15,154 entries, with the top score reaching 24% on the ARC-AGI-2 private evaluation set. Paper submissions nearly doubled year-over-year to 90 entries, reflecting the growing research interest in fluid intelligence and abstract reasoning. The defining theme of 2025 is the emergence of the refinement loop -- a per-task iterative program optimization loop guided by a feedback signal. Refinement loops come in a variety of forms, in particular evolutionary program synthesis approaches and application-layer refinements to commercial AI systems. Such refinement loops are also possible in weight space, as evidenced by zero-pretraining deep learning methods which are now achieving competitive performance with remarkably small networks (7M parameters). In parallel, four frontier AI labs (Anthropic, Google DeepMind, OpenAI, and xAI) reported ARC-AGI performance in public model cards in 2025, establishing ARC-AGI as an industry standard benchmark for AI reasoning. However, our analysis indicates that current frontier AI reasoning performance remains fundamentally constrained to knowledge coverage, giving rise to new forms of benchmark contamination. In this paper, we survey the top-performing methods, examine the role of refinement loops in AGI progress, discuss knowledge-dependent overfitting, and preview ARC-AGI-3, which introduces interactive reasoning challenges that require exploration, planning, memory, goal acquisition, and alignment capabilities.

Code production is now a commodity; the bottleneck is knowing what to build and proving it works. We present the Kitchen Loop, a framework for autonomous, self-evolving software built on a unified trust model: (1) a specification surface enumerating what the product claims to support; (2) 'As a User x 1000', where an LLM agent exercises that surface as a synthetic power user at 1,000x human cadence; (3) Unbeatable Tests, ground-truth verification the code author cannot fake; and (4) Drift Control, continuous quality measurement with automated pause gates. We validate across two production systems over 285+ iterations, producing 1,094+ merged pull requests with zero regressions detected by the regression oracle (methodology in Section 6.1). We observe emergent properties at scale: multi-iteration self-correction chains, autonomous infrastructure healing, and monotonically improving quality gates. The primitives are not new; our contribution is their composition into a production-tested system with the operational discipline that makes long-running autonomous evolution safe.

Scaling Transformer-based click-through rate (CTR) models by stacking more parameters brings growing computational and storage overhead, creating a widening gap between scaling ambitions and the stringent industrial deployment constraints. We propose LoopCTR, which introduces a loop scaling paradigm that increases training-time computation through recursive reuse of shared model layers, decoupling computation from parameter growth. LoopCTR adopts a sandwich architecture enhanced with Hyper-Connected Residuals and Mixture-of-Experts, and employs process supervision at every loop depth to encode multi-loop benefits into the shared parameters. This enables a train-multi-loop, infer-zero-loop strategy where a single forward pass without any loop already outperforms all baselines. Experiments on three public benchmarks and one industrial dataset demonstrate state-of-the-art performance. Oracle analysis further reveals 0.02--0.04 AUC of untapped headroom, with models trained with fewer loops exhibiting higher oracle ceilings, pointing to a promising frontier for adaptive inference.

We introduce Reverse Derivative Ascent: a categorical analogue of gradient based methods for machine learning. Our algorithm is defined at the level of so-called reverse differential categories. It can be used to learn the parameters of models which are expressed as morphisms of such categories. Our motivating example is boolean circuits: we show how our algorithm can be applied to such circuits by using the theory of reverse differential categories. Note our methodology allows us to learn the parameters of boolean circuits directly, in contrast to existing binarised neural network approaches. Moreover, we demonstrate its empirical value by giving experimental results on benchmark machine learning datasets.

An important recurring pattern in scientific breakthroughs is a two-stage process: an initial phase of undirected experimentation that yields an unexpected finding, followed by a retrospective phase that explains why the finding works and situates it within existing theory. We present ResearchEVO, an end-to-end framework that computationally instantiates this discover-then-explain paradigm. The Evolution Phase employs LLM-guided bi-dimensional co-evolution -- simultaneously optimizing both algorithmic logic and overall architecture -- to search the space of code implementations purely by fitness, without requiring any understanding of the solutions it produces. The Writing Phase then takes the best-performing algorithm and autonomously generates a complete, publication-ready research paper through sentence-level retrieval-augmented generation with explicit anti-hallucination verification and automated experiment design. To our knowledge, ResearchEVO is the first system to cover this full pipeline end to end: no prior work jointly performs principled algorithm evolution and literature-grounded scientific documentation. We validate the framework on two cross-disciplinary scientific problems -- Quantum Error Correction using real Google quantum hardware data, and Physics-Informed Neural Networks -- where the Evolution Phase discovered human-interpretable algorithmic mechanisms that had not been previously proposed in the respective domain literatures. In both cases, the Writing Phase autonomously produced compilable LaTeX manuscripts that correctly grounded these blind discoveries in existing theory via RAG, with zero fabricated citations.

To effectively optimize and personalize treatments, it is necessary to investigate the heterogeneity of treatment effects. With the wide range of users being treated over many online controlled experiments, the typical approach of manually investigating each dimension of heterogeneity becomes overly cumbersome and prone to subjective human biases. We need an efficient way to search through thousands of experiments with hundreds of target covariates and hundreds of breakdown dimensions. In this paper, we propose a systematic paradigm for detecting, surfacing and characterizing heterogeneous treatment effects. First, we detect if treatment effect variation is present in an experiment, prior to specifying any breakdowns. Second, we surface the most relevant dimensions for heterogeneity. Finally, we characterize the heterogeneity beyond just the conditional average treatment effects (CATE) by studying the conditional distributions of the estimated individual treatment effects. We show the effectiveness of our methods using simulated data and empirical studies.

We present TinyLLaVA Factory, an open-source modular codebase for small-scale large multimodal models (LMMs) with a focus on simplicity of code implementations, extensibility of new features, and reproducibility of training results. Following the design philosophy of the factory pattern in software engineering, TinyLLaVA Factory modularizes the entire system into interchangeable components, with each component integrating a suite of cutting-edge models and methods, meanwhile leaving room for extensions to more features. In addition to allowing users to customize their own LMMs, TinyLLaVA Factory provides popular training recipes to let users pretrain and finetune their models with less coding effort. Empirical experiments validate the effectiveness of our codebase. The goal of TinyLLaVA Factory is to assist researchers and practitioners in exploring the wide landscape of designing and training small-scale LMMs with affordable computational resources.

As Large Language Models shift the programming toward human-guided ''vibe coding'', agentic coding tools increasingly rely on models to self-diagnose and repair their own subtle faults -- a capability central to autonomous software engineering yet never systematically evaluated. We present , the first empirical decomposition that jointly evaluates two coupled tasks: Fault-Triggering Test Generation (FT-Test) constructing a discriminative witness that exposes a latent bug, and Fault-targeted Program Repair (FPR), repairing it under varying diagnostic conditions. pairs competitive programming problems with LLM-generated solutions that pass partial test suites but fail on semantic edge cases, enabling controlled identification of where the diagnostic chain breaks down. Evaluating 12 frontier LLMs, we find that fault-targeted reasoning does not scale with general coding ability. Models produce syntactically valid test inputs at near-ceiling rates yet collapse on discriminative generation, with fault hypothesis generation -- not output validation -- as the dominant bottleneck. Test-guided repair reveals a complementary insight: when self-generated tests successfully witness a fault, the resulting repair matches or outperforms repair guided by externally provided tests, but tests that fail to witness the fault actively degrade repair below unguided baselines. Together, these results reframe the challenge of autonomous debugging: the binding bottleneck is not code synthesis or test validity but fault-target reasoning, a capability that remains deficient across all frontier models. As Large Language Models shift the programming toward human-guided ''vibe coding'', agentic coding tools increasingly rely on models to self-diagnose and repair their own subtle faults -- a capability central to autonomous software engineering yet never systematically evaluated.

We consider a family of linear systems A_mu alpha=C with system matrix A_mu depending on a parameter mu and for simplicity parameter-independent right-hand side C. These linear systems typically result from the finite-dimensional approximation of a parameter-dependent boundary-value problem. We derive a procedure based on the Empirical Interpolation Method to obtain a separated representation of the system matrix in the form A_muapproxsum_{m}beta_m(mu)A_{mu_m} for some selected values of the parameter. Such a separated representation is in particular useful in the Reduced Basis Method. The procedure is called nonintrusive since it only requires to access the matrices A_{mu_m}. As such, it offers a crucial advantage over existing approaches that instead derive separated representations requiring to enter the code at the level of assembly. Numerical examples illustrate the performance of our new procedure on a simple one-dimensional boundary-value problem and on three-dimensional acoustic scattering problems solved by a boundary element method.

Models for learning probability distributions such as generative models and density estimators behave quite differently from models for learning functions. One example is found in the memorization phenomenon, namely the ultimate convergence to the empirical distribution, that occurs in generative adversarial networks (GANs). For this reason, the issue of generalization is more subtle than that for supervised learning. For the bias potential model, we show that dimension-independent generalization accuracy is achievable if early stopping is adopted, despite that in the long term, the model either memorizes the samples or diverges.

Loop invariants are fundamental to reasoning about programs with loops. They establish properties about a given loop's behavior. When they additionally are inductive, they become useful for the task of formal verification that seeks to establish strong mathematical guarantees about program's runtime behavior. The inductiveness ensures that the invariants can be checked locally without consulting the entire program, thus are indispensable artifacts in a formal proof of correctness. Finding inductive loop invariants is an undecidable problem, and despite a long history of research towards practical solutions, it remains far from a solved problem. This paper investigates the capabilities of the Large Language Models (LLMs) in offering a new solution towards this old, yet important problem. To that end, we first curate a dataset of verification problems on programs with loops. Next, we design a prompt for exploiting LLMs, obtaining inductive loop invariants, that are checked for correctness using sound symbolic tools. Finally, we explore the effectiveness of using an efficient combination of a symbolic tool and an LLM on our dataset and compare it against a purely symbolic baseline. Our results demonstrate that LLMs can help improve the state-of-the-art in automated program verification.

Counterfactual reasoning, a hallmark of intelligence, consists of three steps: inferring latent variables from observations (abduction), constructing alternatives (interventions), and predicting their outcomes (prediction). This skill is essential for advancing LLMs' causal understanding and expanding their applications in high-stakes domains such as scientific research. However, existing efforts in assessing LLM's counterfactual reasoning capabilities tend to skip the abduction step, effectively reducing to interventional reasoning and leading to overestimation of LLM performance. To address this, we introduce executable counterfactuals, a novel framework that operationalizes causal reasoning through code and math problems. Our framework explicitly requires all three steps of counterfactual reasoning and enables scalable synthetic data creation with varying difficulty, creating a frontier for evaluating and improving LLM's reasoning. Our results reveal substantial drop in accuracy (25-40%) from interventional to counterfactual reasoning for SOTA models like o4-mini and Claude-4-Sonnet. To address this gap, we construct a training set comprising counterfactual code problems having if-else condition and test on out-of-domain code structures (e.g. having while-loop); we also test whether a model trained on code would generalize to counterfactual math word problems. While supervised finetuning on stronger models' reasoning traces improves in-domain performance of Qwen models, it leads to a decrease in accuracy on OOD tasks such as counterfactual math problems. In contrast, reinforcement learning induces the core cognitive behaviors and generalizes to new domains, yielding gains over the base model on both code (improvement of 1.5x-2x) and math problems. Analysis of the reasoning traces reinforces these findings and highlights the promise of RL for improving LLMs' counterfactual reasoning.

Autonomous research systems increasingly make the scientific workflow executable: agents can propose ideas, run code, inspect results, and draft papers. But executable workflows do not by themselves produce research judgment. We analyze where current systems lose trial experience: weak evidence becomes prose, pilot signals become broad claims, memory remains textual, and recurring process failures do not change later behavior. We introduce Sibyl-AutoResearch, a self-evolving AutoResearch framework built around Scientific Trial-and-Error Harnesses. A harness lets agents run bounded trials, preserve positive and negative outcomes, and route lessons into later planning, validation, claim scope, scheduling, critique, writing, and harness repair. We formalize this through two auditable conversion units: trial-to-behavior conversion, which links trial signals to later research actions, and trial-to-harness-behavior conversion, which links recurring process failures to system updates. We implement the framework in SIBYL, a file-backed autonomous research system that exposes the state, roles, memory, gates, and artifact traces needed to inspect these conversion paths. A retrospective audit identifies eight high-confidence conversion events, with a median latency of one iteration and a maximum latency of three iterations. A recovered-failure registry further shows how five naturally occurring failure classes, including duplicate results, stale numbers, and unsupported statistics, were blocked, downgraded, or routed into later repair. These traces do not establish a comparative performance claim; they show that the proposed conversion units are recoverable from realistic autonomous-research workspaces. The SIBYL framework and system are available at https://github.com/Sibyl-Research-Team/AutoResearch-SibylSystem.

Large language models (LLMs) are expected to respond accurately but often exhibit deficient reasoning or generate hallucinatory content. To address these, studies prefixed with ``Self-'' such as Self-Consistency, Self-Improve, and Self-Refine have been initiated. They share a commonality: involving LLMs evaluating and updating itself to mitigate the issues. Nonetheless, these efforts lack a unified perspective on summarization, as existing surveys predominantly focus on categorization without examining the motivations behind these works. In this paper, we summarize a theoretical framework, termed Internal Consistency, which offers unified explanations for phenomena such as the lack of reasoning and the presence of hallucinations. Internal Consistency assesses the coherence among LLMs' latent layer, decoding layer, and response layer based on sampling methodologies. Expanding upon the Internal Consistency framework, we introduce a streamlined yet effective theoretical framework capable of mining Internal Consistency, named Self-Feedback. The Self-Feedback framework consists of two modules: Self-Evaluation and Self-Update. This framework has been employed in numerous studies. We systematically classify these studies by tasks and lines of work; summarize relevant evaluation methods and benchmarks; and delve into the concern, ``Does Self-Feedback Really Work?'' We propose several critical viewpoints, including the ``Hourglass Evolution of Internal Consistency'', ``Consistency Is (Almost) Correctness'' hypothesis, and ``The Paradox of Latent and Explicit Reasoning''. Furthermore, we outline promising directions for future research. We have open-sourced the experimental code, reference list, and statistical data, available at https://github.com/IAAR-Shanghai/ICSFSurvey.

We introduce a theoretical framework for sampling from unnormalized densities based on a smoothing scheme that uses an isotropic Gaussian kernel with a single fixed noise scale. We prove one can decompose sampling from a density (minimal assumptions made on the density) into a sequence of sampling from log-concave conditional densities via accumulation of noisy measurements with equal noise levels. Our construction is unique in that it keeps track of a history of samples, making it non-Markovian as a whole, but it is lightweight algorithmically as the history only shows up in the form of a running empirical mean of samples. Our sampling algorithm generalizes walk-jump sampling (Saremi & Hyv\"arinen, 2019). The "walk" phase becomes a (non-Markovian) chain of (log-concave) Markov chains. The "jump" from the accumulated measurements is obtained by empirical Bayes. We study our sampling algorithm quantitatively using the 2-Wasserstein metric and compare it with various Langevin MCMC algorithms. We also report a remarkable capacity of our algorithm to "tunnel" between modes of a distribution.

Stepwise inference protocols, such as scratchpads and chain-of-thought, help language models solve complex problems by decomposing them into a sequence of simpler subproblems. Despite the significant gain in performance achieved via these protocols, the underlying mechanisms of stepwise inference have remained elusive. To address this, we propose to study autoregressive Transformer models on a synthetic task that embodies the multi-step nature of problems where stepwise inference is generally most useful. Specifically, we define a graph navigation problem wherein a model is tasked with traversing a path from a start to a goal node on the graph. Despite is simplicity, we find we can empirically reproduce and analyze several phenomena observed at scale: (i) the stepwise inference reasoning gap, the cause of which we find in the structure of the training data; (ii) a diversity-accuracy tradeoff in model generations as sampling temperature varies; (iii) a simplicity bias in the model's output; and (iv) compositional generalization and a primacy bias with in-context exemplars. Overall, our work introduces a grounded, synthetic framework for studying stepwise inference and offers mechanistic hypotheses that can lay the foundation for a deeper understanding of this phenomenon.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) become more pervasive across various users and scenarios, identifying potential issues when using these models becomes essential. Examples of such issues include: bias, inconsistencies, and hallucination. Although auditing the LLM for these problems is often warranted, such a process is neither easy nor accessible for most. An effective method is to probe the LLM using different versions of the same question. This could expose inconsistencies in its knowledge or operation, indicating potential for bias or hallucination. However, to operationalize this auditing method at scale, we need an approach to create those probes reliably and automatically. In this paper we propose the LLMAuditor framework which is an automatic, and scalable solution, where one uses a different LLM along with human-in-the-loop (HIL). This approach offers verifiability and transparency, while avoiding circular reliance on the same LLM, and increasing scientific rigor and generalizability. Specifically, LLMAuditor includes two phases of verification using humans: standardized evaluation criteria to verify responses, and a structured prompt template to generate desired probes. A case study using questions from the TruthfulQA dataset demonstrates that we can generate a reliable set of probes from one LLM that can be used to audit inconsistencies in a different LLM. This process is enhanced by our structured prompt template with HIL, which not only boosts the reliability of our approach in auditing but also yields the delivery of less hallucinated results. The novelty of our research stems from the development of a comprehensive, general-purpose framework that includes a HIL verified prompt template for auditing responses generated by LLMs.

The proliferation of generative models, combined with pretraining on web-scale data, raises a timely question: what happens when these models are trained on their own generated outputs? Recent investigations into model-data feedback loops proposed that such loops would lead to a phenomenon termed model collapse, under which performance progressively degrades with each model-data feedback iteration until fitted models become useless. However, those studies largely assumed that new data replace old data over time, where an arguably more realistic assumption is that data accumulate over time. In this paper, we ask: what effect does accumulating data have on model collapse? We empirically study this question by pretraining sequences of language models on text corpora. We confirm that replacing the original real data by each generation's synthetic data does indeed tend towards model collapse, then demonstrate that accumulating the successive generations of synthetic data alongside the original real data avoids model collapse; these results hold across a range of model sizes, architectures, and hyperparameters. We obtain similar results for deep generative models on other types of real data: diffusion models for molecule conformation generation and variational autoencoders for image generation. To understand why accumulating data can avoid model collapse, we use an analytically tractable framework introduced by prior work in which a sequence of linear models are fit to the previous models' outputs. Previous work used this framework to show that if data are replaced, the test error increases with the number of model-fitting iterations; we extend this argument to prove that if data instead accumulate, the test error has a finite upper bound independent of the number of iterations, meaning model collapse no longer occurs.

Recent research has generated hope that inference scaling could allow weaker language models to match or exceed the accuracy of stronger models, such as by repeatedly sampling solutions to a coding problem until it passes unit tests. The central thesis of this paper is that there is no free lunch for inference scaling: indefinite accuracy improvement through resampling can only be realized if the "verifier" (in this case, a set of unit tests) is perfect. When the verifier is imperfect, as it almost always is in domains such as reasoning or coding (for example, unit tests have imperfect coverage), there is a nonzero probability of false positives: incorrect solutions that pass the verifier. Resampling cannot decrease this probability, so it imposes an upper bound to the accuracy of resampling-based inference scaling even with an infinite compute budget. We find that there is a very strong correlation between the model's single-sample accuracy (i.e. accuracy without unit tests) and its false positive rate on coding benchmarks HumanEval and MBPP, whose unit tests have limited coverage. Therefore, no amount of inference scaling of weaker models can enable them to match the single-sample accuracy of a sufficiently strong model (Fig. 1a). When we consider that false positives have a negative utility compared to abstaining from producing a solution, it bends the inference scaling curve further downward. Empirically, we find that the optimal number of samples can be less than 10 under realistic assumptions (Fig. 1b). Finally, we show that beyond accuracy, false positives may have other undesirable qualities, such as poor adherence to coding style conventions.

We introduce the concept of the self-referencing causal cycle (abbreviated RECALL) - a mechanism that enables large language models (LLMs) to bypass the limitations of unidirectional causality, which underlies a phenomenon known as the reversal curse. When an LLM is prompted with sequential data, it often fails to recall preceding context. For example, when we ask an LLM to recall the line preceding "O say does that star-spangled banner yet wave" in the U.S. National Anthem, it often fails to correctly return "Gave proof through the night that our flag was still there" - this is due to the reversal curse. It occurs because language models such as ChatGPT and Llama generate text based on preceding tokens, requiring facts to be learned and reproduced in a consistent token order. While the reversal curse is often viewed as a limitation, we offer evidence of an alternative view: it is not always an obstacle in practice. We find that RECALL is driven by what we designate as cycle tokens - sequences that connect different parts of the training data, enabling recall of preceding tokens from succeeding ones. Through rigorous probabilistic formalization and controlled experiments, we demonstrate how the cycles they induce influence a model's ability to reproduce information. To facilitate reproducibility, we provide our code and experimental details at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/remember-B0B8/.

Observational studies of causal effects require adjustment for confounding factors. In the tabular setting, where these factors are well-defined, separate random variables, the effect of confounding is well understood. However, in public policy, ecology, and in medicine, decisions are often made in non-tabular settings, informed by patterns or objects detected in images (e.g., maps, satellite or tomography imagery). Using such imagery for causal inference presents an opportunity because objects in the image may be related to the treatment and outcome of interest. In these cases, we rely on the images to adjust for confounding but observed data do not directly label the existence of the important objects. Motivated by real-world applications, we formalize this challenge, how it can be handled, and what conditions are sufficient to identify and estimate causal effects. We analyze finite-sample performance using simulation experiments, estimating effects using a propensity adjustment algorithm that employs a machine learning model to estimate the image confounding. Our experiments also examine sensitivity to misspecification of the image pattern mechanism. Finally, we use our methodology to estimate the effects of policy interventions on poverty in African communities from satellite imagery.

As language models accelerate scientific research by automating hypothesis generation and implementation, a new bottleneck emerges: evaluating and filtering hundreds of AI-generated ideas without exhaustive experimentation. We ask whether LMs can learn to forecast the empirical success of research ideas before any experiments are run. We study comparative empirical forecasting: given a benchmark-specific research goal and two candidate ideas, predict which will achieve better benchmark performance. We construct a dataset of 11,488 idea pairs grounded in objective outcomes from PapersWithCode. While off-the-shelf 8B-parameter models struggle (30% acc.), SFT dramatically boosts performance to 77.1%, outperforming GPT-5 (61.1%). By framing evaluation as a reasoning task via Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR), we train models to discover latent reasoning paths, achieving 71.35% acc. with interpretable justifications. Through additional ablations and out-of-distribution tests, we show robustness to surface-level heuristics and transfer to both a cross-domain time-split test set and an independently constructed test set. Our results demonstrate that compute-efficient small language models can serve as effective, objective verifiers, offering a scalable path for autonomous scientific discovery.

Training a model to predict the next step in a concurrent program is harder than it looks: two runs of the same program from the same trace prefix can produce different next events, both valid, because the scheduler is nondeterministic. A model trained against a single label is learning to guess one outcome of a random process. We turn this around and use the nondeterminism as a training signal. We run each program many times, aggregate the observed next events into an empirical distribution, and fine-tune a 7B model to match that distribution with a KL objective. On 798 held-out predictions drawn from real production Go bugs (CockroachDB, Kubernetes, gRPC, etcd), fine-tuning on fewer than a thousand traces reaches 36.2% accuracy, ahead of Gemini 3.5 Flash used zero-shot (34.8%) and the same model without fine-tuning (28.6%). Distribution training matches cross-entropy on accuracy (35.8% vs. 36.2%) while reducing Expected Calibration Error from 0.205 to 0.169. We also derive a formal goroutine-leak signature for a class of select-blocked goroutines where P(GoUnblock)=0 holds by scheduler semantics, not by learning. We release the dataset, trained adapters, and all tooling.

With the advent of large language models (LLMs) like GPT-3, a natural question is the extent to which these models can be utilized for source code optimization. This paper presents methodologically stringent case studies applied to well-known open source python libraries pillow and numpy. We find that contemporary LLM ChatGPT-4 (state September and October 2023) is surprisingly adept at optimizing energy and compute efficiency. However, this is only the case in interactive use, with a human expert in the loop. Aware of experimenter bias, we document our qualitative approach in detail, and provide transcript and source code. We start by providing a detailed description of our approach in conversing with the LLM to optimize the _getextrema function in the pillow library, and a quantitative evaluation of the performance improvement. To demonstrate qualitative replicability, we report further attempts on another locus in the pillow library, and one code locus in the numpy library, to demonstrate generalization within and beyond a library. In all attempts, the performance improvement is significant (factor up to 38). We have also not omitted reporting of failed attempts (there were none). We conclude that LLMs are a promising tool for code optimization in open source libraries, but that the human expert in the loop is essential for success. Nonetheless, we were surprised by how few iterations were required to achieve substantial performance improvements that were not obvious to the expert in the loop. We would like bring attention to the qualitative nature of this study, more robust quantitative studies would need to introduce a layer of selecting experts in a representative sample -- we invite the community to collaborate.

Large language models (LLMs) currently suffer from parameter entanglement, where general reasoning capabilities (logic) and specific factual knowledge (facts) exist in a superposition state within shared weights. This coupling leads to the "memory wall," where computational capacity is squandered on simulating retrieval, often resulting in hallucinations. In this paper, we propose "digital metabolism," a thermodynamic hypothesis suggesting that targeted forgetting is necessary for distilling a pure neural logic core. To validate this hypothesis, we introduce the Regenerative Logic-Core Protocol (RLCP), a dual-stream training framework that renders specific factual dependencies linearly undecodable via deep-layer gradient reversal. Applying RLCP to Qwen2.5-0.5B, we observe a distinct phase transition: the model achieves near-zero retention of targeted factual associations (Accuracy < 7%) while exhibiting changes consistent with an emergent "structural crystallization" effect. Empirical analysis on GSM8K reveals that the "metabolized" model spontaneously adopts chain-of-thought (CoT) scaffolding, which we interpret as compensating for the loss of direct associative recall (shifting from O(1) recall to O(N) reasoning). While the causal mechanism underlying this behavioral shift requires further investigation, our findings provide a dynamic weight-level counterpart to architectural innovations like DeepSeek's Engram, paving the way for modular "Neural CPU + Symbolic RAM" architectures.

Minimal Phenomenal Experiences (MPEs) are states of consciousness in which wakefulness is preserved but phenomenal content is low or absent. The Entropic Brain Hypothesis (EBH) is a model of conscious processes that regards the entropy of spontaneous brain activity as a marker of 'phenomenal richness', exemplified by high-content psychedelic experiences (HCPEs). Yet recent human neuroimaging studies of MPEs induced by meditation -- and possibly 5-MeO-DMT -- suggest that these states, defined by their phenomenological simplicity, also show signs of increased neurophysiological entropy. This presents a conundrum for the EBH: brain entropy is elevated with increased and decreased richness of the phenomenal experience. Here, we put forward the Complex Brain Hypothesis (CBH), which proposes that the richness of experience differentiating MPEs from HCPEs is better indexed by complexity than by entropy. We argue that brain complexity is modulated by the grain of inference through which the brain resolves uncertainty: some HCPEs exemplify a fine-grained regime, in which loosened constraints amplify fluctuations into proliferating content, whereas some MPEs exemplify a coarse-grained regime, in which a simpler model dissolves variety into an experience of 'contentless' awareness. Both regimes can be associated with elevated brain entropy, but they diverge in phenomenology and perturbational signatures. By resolving the entropy-content conundrum, the CBH refines the EBH and highlights MPEs as an important test case for computational theories of consciousness.

While test-time scaling has enabled large language models to solve highly difficult tasks, state-of-the-art results come at exorbitant compute costs. These inefficiencies can be attributed to the miscalibration of post-trained language models, and the lack of calibration in popular sampling techniques. Here, we present Online Reasoning Calibration (ORCA), a framework for calibrating the sampling process that draws upon conformal prediction and test-time training. Specifically, we introduce a meta-learning procedure that updates the calibration module for each input. This allows us to provide valid confidence estimates under distributional shift, e.g. in thought patterns that occur across different stages of reasoning, or in prompt distributions between model development and deployment. ORCA not only provides theoretical guarantees on conformal risks, but also empirically shows higher efficiency and generalization across different reasoning tasks. At risk level δ=0.1, ORCA improves Qwen2.5-32B efficiency on in-distribution tasks with savings up to 47.5% with supervised labels and 40.7% with self-consistency labels. Under zero-shot out-of-domain settings, it improves MATH-500 savings from 24.8% of the static calibration baseline to 67.0% while maintaining a low empirical error rate, and the same trend holds across model families and downstream benchmarks. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/wzekai99/ORCA.

Large language model (LLM)-based systems are increasingly deployed to conduct scientific research autonomously, yet whether their reasoning adheres to the epistemic norms that make scientific inquiry self-correcting is poorly understood. Here, we evaluate LLM-based scientific agents across eight domains, spanning workflow execution to hypothesis-driven inquiry, through more than 25,000 agent runs and two complementary lenses: (i) a systematic performance analysis that decomposes the contributions of the base model and the agent scaffold, and (ii) a behavioral analysis of the epistemological structure of agent reasoning. We observe that the base model is the primary determinant of both performance and behavior, accounting for 41.4% of explained variance versus 1.5% for the scaffold. Across all configurations, evidence is ignored in 68% of traces, refutation-driven belief revision occurs in 26%, and convergent multi-test evidence is rare. The same reasoning pattern appears whether the agent executes a computational workflow or conducts hypothesis-driven inquiry. They persist even when agents receive near-complete successful reasoning trajectories as context, and the resulting unreliability compounds across repeated trials in epistemically demanding domains. Thus, current LLM-based agents execute scientific workflows but do not exhibit the epistemic patterns that characterize scientific reasoning. Outcome-based evaluation cannot detect these failures, and scaffold engineering alone cannot repair them. Until reasoning itself becomes a training target, the scientific knowledge produced by such agents cannot be justified by the process that generated it.

Socio-economic causal effects depend heavily on their specific institutional and environmental context. A single intervention can produce opposite results depending on regulatory or market factors, contexts that are often complex and only partially observed. This poses a significant challenge for large language models (LLMs) in decision-support roles: can they distinguish structural causal mechanisms from surface-level correlations when the context changes? To address this, we introduce EconCausal, a large-scale benchmark comprising 10,490 context-annotated causal triplets extracted from 2,595 high-quality empirical studies published in top-tier economics and finance journals. Through a rigorous four-stage pipeline combining multi-run consensus, context refinement, and multi-critic filtering, we ensure each claim is grounded in peer-reviewed research with explicit identification strategies. Our evaluation reveals critical limitations in current LLMs' context-dependent reasoning. While top models achieve approximately 88 percent accuracy in fixed, explicit contexts, performance drops sharply under context shifts, with a 32.6 percentage point decline, and falls to 37 percent when misinformation is introduced. Furthermore, models exhibit severe over-commitment in ambiguous cases and struggle to recognize null effects, achieving only 9.5 percent accuracy, exposing a fundamental gap between pattern matching and genuine causal reasoning. These findings underscore substantial risks for high-stakes economic decision-making, where the cost of misinterpreting causality is high. The dataset and benchmark are publicly available at https://github.com/econaikaist/econcausal-benchmark.

Looped language models repeat a set of transformer layers through depth, reducing memory costs and providing natural early-exit points at loop boundaries. However, looped models do not scale as favorably as standard transformers with unique layers. We compare standard and Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) transformers, with and without looping, and find two main results. First, we find Looped-MoE models scale better than the standard baseline while dense looped models do not. We trace this to routing divergence between loops: in Looped-MoE models, different experts are activated on each pass through the same shared layers, recovering expressivity without additional parameters. Our second finding is that looped models have better compute-quality trade-offs with early exits than standard models. Because each loop ends with the same layers that produce the final output, loop boundaries are superior exit points, as confirmed by earlier output convergence at these points. In sum, we provide a clear direction for scaling looped models: a Looped-MoE model with early exits can not only beat standard transformers at scale, but also enable significant memory and inference savings with minimal degradation in quality.

Recent advances in multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have shown impressive reasoning capabilities. However, further enhancing existing MLLMs necessitates high-quality vision-language datasets with carefully curated task complexities, which are both costly and challenging to scale. Although recent self-improving models that iteratively refine themselves offer a feasible solution, they still suffer from two core challenges: (i) most existing methods augment visual or textual data separately, resulting in discrepancies in data complexity (e.g., over-simplified diagrams paired with redundant textual descriptions); and (ii) the evolution of data and models is also separated, leading to scenarios where models are exposed to tasks with mismatched difficulty levels. To address these issues, we propose C2-Evo, an automatic, closed-loop self-improving framework that jointly evolves both training data and model capabilities. Specifically, given a base dataset and a base model, C2-Evo enhances them by a cross-modal data evolution loop and a data-model evolution loop. The former loop expands the base dataset by generating complex multimodal problems that combine structured textual sub-problems with iteratively specified geometric diagrams, while the latter loop adaptively selects the generated problems based on the performance of the base model, to conduct supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning alternately. Consequently, our method continuously refines its model and training data, and consistently obtains considerable performance gains across multiple mathematical reasoning benchmarks. Our code, models, and datasets will be released.

Most positive and unlabeled data is subject to selection biases. The labeled examples can, for example, be selected from the positive set because they are easier to obtain or more obviously positive. This paper investigates how learning can be ena BHbled in this setting. We propose and theoretically analyze an empirical-risk-based method for incorporating the labeling mechanism. Additionally, we investigate under which assumptions learning is possible when the labeling mechanism is not fully understood and propose a practical method to enable this. Our empirical analysis supports the theoretical results and shows that taking into account the possibility of a selection bias, even when the labeling mechanism is unknown, improves the trained classifiers.

We propose a novel framework for comprehending the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) through the perspective of meta-learning. By conceptualizing reasoning trajectories as pseudo-gradient descent updates to the LLM's parameters, we identify parallels between LLM reasoning and various meta-learning paradigms. We formalize the training process for reasoning tasks as a meta-learning setup, with each question treated as an individual task, and reasoning trajectories serving as the inner loop optimization for adapting model parameters. Once trained on a diverse set of questions, the LLM develops fundamental reasoning capabilities that can generalize to previously unseen questions. Extensive empirical evaluations substantiate the strong connection between LLM reasoning and meta-learning, exploring several issues of significant interest from a meta-learning standpoint. Our work not only enhances the understanding of LLM reasoning but also provides practical insights for improving these models through established meta-learning techniques.

Reverse Chain-of-Thought Generation (RCG) synthesizes reasoning traces from query-answer pairs, but runs the risk of producing post-hoc rationalizations: when models can see the answer during generation, the answer serves as a cognitive anchor that shapes the entire explanation. We formalize this phenomenon through a three-level measurement hierarchy: lexical, entropic, and probabilistic anchoring, each captures surface artifacts, entropy dynamics, and latent answer dependence, respectively. We analyze semantic suppression, the intuitive mitigation strategy that instructs models to ignore the answer, to find out its counterproduction: while it reduces lexical overlap, it paradoxically increases entropic and probabilistic anchoring. Drawing on Ironic Process Theory from cognitive psychology, we attribute this failure to active monitoring of the forbidden answer, which inadvertently deepens dependence on it. To break this cycle, we propose Structural Skeleton-guided Reasoning (SSR), a two-phase approach that first generates an answer-invariant functional skeleton structure, then uses this skeleton to guide full trace generation. By redirecting the information flow to structural planning rather than answer monitoring, SSR consistently reduces anchoring across all three levels. We further introduce Distilled SSR (SSR-D), which fine-tunes models on teacher-generated SSR traces to ensure reliable structural adherence. Experiments across open-ended reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that SSR-D achieves up to 10% improvement over suppression baselines while preserving out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization.

Time series reasoning treats time as a first-class axis and incorporates intermediate evidence directly into the answer. This survey defines the problem and organizes the literature by reasoning topology with three families: direct reasoning in one step, linear chain reasoning with explicit intermediates, and branch-structured reasoning that explores, revises, and aggregates. The topology is crossed with the main objectives of the field, including traditional time series analysis, explanation and understanding, causal inference and decision making, and time series generation, while a compact tag set spans these axes and captures decomposition and verification, ensembling, tool use, knowledge access, multimodality, agent loops, and LLM alignment regimes. Methods and systems are reviewed across domains, showing what each topology enables and where it breaks down in faithfulness or robustness, along with curated datasets, benchmarks, and resources that support study and deployment (https://github.com/blacksnail789521/Time-Series-Reasoning-Survey). Evaluation practices that keep evidence visible and temporally aligned are highlighted, and guidance is distilled on matching topology to uncertainty, grounding with observable artifacts, planning for shift and streaming, and treating cost and latency as design budgets. We emphasize that reasoning structures must balance capacity for grounding and self-correction against computational cost and reproducibility, while future progress will likely depend on benchmarks that tie reasoning quality to utility and on closed-loop testbeds that trade off cost and risk under shift-aware, streaming, and long-horizon settings. Taken together, these directions mark a shift from narrow accuracy toward reliability at scale, enabling systems that not only analyze but also understand, explain, and act on dynamic worlds with traceable evidence and credible outcomes.

Sampling is ubiquitous in machine learning methodologies. Due to the growth of large datasets and model complexity, we want to learn and adapt the sampling process while training a representation. Towards achieving this grand goal, a variety of sampling techniques have been proposed. However, most of them either use a fixed sampling scheme or adjust the sampling scheme based on simple heuristics. They cannot choose the best sample for model training in different stages. Inspired by "Think, Fast and Slow" (System 1 and System 2) in cognitive science, we propose a reward-guided sampling strategy called Adaptive Sample with Reward (ASR) to tackle this challenge. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work utilizing reinforcement learning (RL) to address the sampling problem in representation learning. Our approach optimally adjusts the sampling process to achieve optimal performance. We explore geographical relationships among samples by distance-based sampling to maximize overall cumulative reward. We apply ASR to the long-standing sampling problems in similarity-based loss functions. Empirical results in information retrieval and clustering demonstrate ASR's superb performance across different datasets. We also discuss an engrossing phenomenon which we name as "ASR gravity well" in experiments.

Many applications involve estimating the mean of multiple binomial outcomes as a common problem -- assessing intergenerational mobility of census tracts, estimating prevalence of infectious diseases across countries, and measuring click-through rates for different demographic groups. The most standard approach is to report the plain average of each outcome. Despite simplicity, the estimates are noisy when the sample sizes or mean parameters are small. In contrast, the Empirical Bayes (EB) methods are able to boost the average accuracy by borrowing information across tasks. Nevertheless, the EB methods require a Bayesian model where the parameters are sampled from a prior distribution which, unlike the commonly-studied Gaussian case, is unidentified due to discreteness of binomial measurements. Even if the prior distribution is known, the computation is difficult when the sample sizes are heterogeneous as there is no simple joint conjugate prior for the sample size and mean parameter. In this paper, we consider the compound decision framework which treats the sample size and mean parameters as fixed quantities. We develop an approximate Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimator (SURE) for the average mean squared error given any class of estimators. For a class of machine learning-assisted linear shrinkage estimators, we establish asymptotic optimality, regret bounds, and valid inference. Unlike existing work, we work with the binomials directly without resorting to Gaussian approximations. This allows us to work with small sample sizes and/or mean parameters in both one-sample and two-sample settings. We demonstrate our approach using three datasets on firm discrimination, education outcomes, and innovation rates.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promising capabilities for solving Operations Research (OR) problems. While reinforcement learning serves as a powerful paradigm for LLM training on OR problems, existing works generally face two key limitations. First, outcome reward suffers from the credit assignment problem, where correct final answers can reinforce flawed reasoning. Second, conventional discriminative process supervision is myopic, failing to evaluate the interdependent steps of OR modeling holistically. To this end, we introduce StepORLM, a novel self-evolving framework with generative process supervision. At its core, StepORLM features a co-evolutionary loop where a policy model and a generative process reward model (GenPRM) iteratively improve on each other. This loop is driven by a dual-feedback mechanism: definitive, outcome-based verification from an external solver, and nuanced, holistic process evaluation from the GenPRM. The combined signal is used to align the policy via Weighted Direct Preference Optimization (W-DPO) and simultaneously refine the GenPRM. Our resulting 8B-parameter StepORLM establishes a new state-of-the-art across six benchmarks, significantly outperforming vastly larger generalist models, agentic methods, and specialized baselines. Moreover, the co-evolved GenPRM is able to act as a powerful and universally applicable process verifier, substantially boosting the inference scaling performance of both our own model and other existing LLMs.

Partial correlations quantify linear association between two variables adjusting for the influence of the remaining variables. They form the backbone for graphical models and are readily obtained from the inverse of the covariance matrix. For compositional data, the covariance structure is specified from log ratios of variables, so unless we try to "open" the data via a normalization, this implies changes in the definition and interpretation of partial correlations. In the present work, we elucidate how results derived by Aitchison (1986) lead to a natural definition of partial correlation that has a number of advantages over current measures of association. For this, we show that the residuals of log-ratios between a variable with a reference, when adjusting for all remaining variables including the reference, are reference-independent. Since the reference itself can be controlled for, correlations between residuals are defined for the variables directly without the necessity to recur to ratios except when specifying which variables are partialled out. Thus, perhaps surprisingly, partial correlations do not have the problems commonly found with measures of pairwise association on compositional data. They are well-defined between two variables, are properly scaled, and allow for negative association. By design, they are subcompositionally incoherent, but they share this property with conventional partial correlations (where results change when adjusting for the influence of fewer variables). We discuss the equivalence with normalization-based approaches whenever the normalizing variables are controlled for. We also discuss the partial variances and correlations we obtain from a previously studied data set of Roman glass cups.

The dominant industry response to AI-generated code quality problems is to deploy AI reviewers. This paper argues that this response is structurally circular when executable specifications are absent: without an external reference, both the generating agent and the reviewing agent reason from the same artefact, share the same training distribution, and exhibit correlated failures. The review checks code against itself, not against intent. Three hypotheses are developed. First, that correlated errors in homogeneous LLM pipelines echo rather than cancel, a claim supported by convergent empirical evidence from multiple 2025-2026 studies and by three small contrived experiments reported here. The first two experiments are same-family (Claude reviewing Claude-generated code); the third extends to a cross-family panel of four models from three families. All use a planted bug corpus rather than a natural defect sample; they are directional evidence, not a controlled demonstration. Second, that executable specifications perform a domain transition in the Cynefin sense, converting enabling constraints into governing constraints and moving the problem from the complex domain to the complicated domain, a transition that AI makes economically viable at scale. Third, that the defect classes lying outside the reach of executable specifications form a well-defined residual, which is the legitimate and bounded target for AI review. The combined argument implies an architecture: specifications first, deterministic verification pipeline second, AI review only for the structural and architectural residual. This is not a claim that AI review is valueless. It is a claim about what it is actually for, and about what happens when it is deployed without the foundation that makes it non-circular.

Reproducibility is central to research credibility, yet large-scale reanalysis of empricial data remains costly because replication packages vary widely in structure, software environment, and documentation. We develop and evaluate an agentic AI workflow that addresses this execution bottleneck while preserving scientific rigor. The system separates scientific reasoning from computational execution: researchers design fixed diagnostic templates, and the workflow automates the acquisition, harmonization, and execution of replication materials using pre-specified, version-controlled code. A structured knowledge layer records resolved failure patterns, enabling adaptation across heterogeneous studies while keeping each pipeline version transparent and stable. We evaluate this workflow on 92 instrumental variable (IV) studies, including 67 with manually verified reproducible 2SLS estimates and 25 newly published IV studies under identical criteria. For each paper, we analyze up to three two-stage least squares (2SLS) specifications, totaling 215. Across the 92 papers, the system achieves 87% end-to-end success overall. Conditional on accessible data and code, reproducibility is 100% at both the paper and specification levels. The framework substantially lowers the cost of executing established empirical protocols and can be adapted in empirical settings where analytic templates and norms of transparency are well established.

This paper presents AlphaOne (alpha1), a universal framework for modulating reasoning progress in large reasoning models (LRMs) at test time. alpha1 first introduces alpha moment, which represents the scaled thinking phase with a universal parameter alpha. Within this scaled pre-alpha moment phase, it dynamically schedules slow thinking transitions by modeling the insertion of reasoning transition tokens as a Bernoulli stochastic process. After the alpha moment, alpha1 deterministically terminates slow thinking with the end-of-thinking token, thereby fostering fast reasoning and efficient answer generation. This approach unifies and generalizes existing monotonic scaling methods by enabling flexible and dense slow-to-fast reasoning modulation. Extensive empirical studies on various challenging benchmarks across mathematical, coding, and scientific domains demonstrate alpha1's superior reasoning capability and efficiency. Project page: https://alphaone-project.github.io/

We present a straightforward statistical test to detect certain violations of the assumption that the data are Independent and Identically Distributed (IID). The specific form of violation considered is common across real-world applications: whether the examples are ordered in the dataset such that almost adjacent examples tend to have more similar feature values (e.g. due to distributional drift, or attractive interactions between datapoints). Based on a k-Nearest Neighbors estimate, our approach can be used to audit any multivariate numeric data as well as other data types (image, text, audio, etc.) that can be numerically represented, perhaps with model embeddings. Compared with existing methods to detect drift or auto-correlation, our approach is both applicable to more types of data and also able to detect a wider variety of IID violations in practice. Code: https://github.com/cleanlab/cleanlab

Looped language models (LoopLMs) perform iterative latent computation to refine internal representations, offering a promising alternative to explicit chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning. However, existing reinforcement learning (RL) paradigms primarily target output tokens, creating a structural mismatch with looped architectures whose reasoning unfolds implicitly. In this work, we propose LoopRPT, a reinforcement pre-training framework tailored for LoopLMs. By reframing next-token prediction as a next-token reasoning task, LoopRPT assigns reinforcement signals directly to latent steps using an EMA teacher reference and noisy latent rollouts. This formulation enables RL to directly shape intermediate representations, compressing effective reasoning into fewer iterations. We instantiate LoopRPT on the Ouro architecture across multiple model scales. Results demonstrate that LoopRPT consistently improves per-step representation quality, achieving Pareto dominance in accuracy-computation trade-offs. Notably, significant gains on hard tokens indicate that LoopRPT enhances early-stage reasoning rather than merely encouraging premature exits. Our findings highlight reinforcement pre-training as a principled paradigm for learning efficient latent reasoning in LoopLMs.

We present a SemiEmpirical Theory of Learning (SETOL) that explains the remarkable performance of State-Of-The-Art (SOTA) Neural Networks (NNs). We provide a formal explanation of the origin of the fundamental quantities in the phenomenological theory of Heavy-Tailed Self-Regularization (HTSR): the heavy-tailed power-law layer quality metrics, alpha and alpha-hat. In prior work, these metrics have been shown to predict trends in the test accuracies of pretrained SOTA NN models, importantly, without needing access to either testing or training data. Our SETOL uses techniques from statistical mechanics as well as advanced methods from random matrix theory and quantum chemistry. The derivation suggests new mathematical preconditions for ideal learning, including a new metric, ERG, which is equivalent to applying a single step of the Wilson Exact Renormalization Group. We test the assumptions and predictions of SETOL on a simple 3-layer multilayer perceptron (MLP), demonstrating excellent agreement with the key theoretical assumptions. For SOTA NN models, we show how to estimate the individual layer qualities of a trained NN by simply computing the empirical spectral density (ESD) of the layer weight matrices and plugging this ESD into our SETOL formulas. Notably, we examine the performance of the HTSR alpha and the SETOL ERG layer quality metrics, and find that they align remarkably well, both on our MLP and on SOTA NNs.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.